gehringer_2 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Somewhere recently (maybe here) I read a reminder that Erdogan is a Turk and so you don't get anything (like Sweden's admission to NATO) without a good haggle - it's cooked into the culture. Various reports in the twitterverse indicating that apparently the US has figured out that F-16s are the thing to tease to Erdogan with at the bazaar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Somewhere recently (maybe here) I read a reminder that Erdogan is a Turk and so you don't get anything (like Sweden's admission to NATO) without a good haggle - it's cooked into the culture. Various reports in the twitterverse indicating that apparently the US has figured out that F-16s are the thing to tease to Erdogan with at the bazaar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The Kyiv Independent news desk Thu, January 19, 2023 at 12:28 PM EST·3 min read Nine European nations have signed a joint statement known as the Tallinn Pledge, committing to providing Ukraine with the support that it needs to liberate all its territory currently occupied by Russia... German arms manufacturing company Rheinmetall is reportedly ready to supply 100 battle tanks to Ukraine if the government approves, according to Handelsblatt, citing sources in the industry. The company is ready to provide German-produced Leopard 1 and 2, as well as British-made Challenger 1, which Rheinmetall would buy from Oman and upgrade before sending to Ukraine. Yet Germany has refused to send modern tanks to Ukraine, fearing "escalation", despite Poland and the U.K. both breaking the taboo of providing Western-made tanks to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos on Jan. 19. that Germany would only provide Leopards to Ukraine if the US provided native M1 Abrams tanks first. Responding to Scholz's comments, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said that "it doesn't make sense" for the U.S. to send Abrams tanks "at the moment". I have a different US response: Send 4-8 Abrams to Ukraine now. It breaks the ice for Germany. They don't have to actually use the Abrams, at least not right away. They are not stupid. Send them to Ukraine with the agreement that they will not use them until a later date. When they have the time to do proper training. For now, keep them west of Lvov, near the Polish border. At the end of the summer, after they've kicked Russia out of Ukrainian territory, they'll have the time to train, to understand the difficult logistical support that the Abrams requires, and how to utilize them in a mixed military filled with all manner of weaponry supplied from all over western civilization. But this easier than rocket science to me: just break the fucking ice and stop letting Germany use the lack of Abrams sent to Ukraine as an excuse to block the sending of hundreds of German Leopard tanks that Ukraine needs to fight Russia and every country wants to send them... IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Tomorrow will be a big deal. The world order will either break or be shored up by the Ramstein conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: I have a different US response: Send 4-8 Abrams to Ukraine now. It breaks the ice for Germany. They don't have to actually use the Abrams, at least not right away. They are not stupid. Send them to Ukraine with the agreement that they will not use them until a later date. When they have the time to do proper training. For now, keep them west of Lvov, near the Polish border. At the end of the summer, after they've kicked Russia out of Ukrainian territory, they'll have the time to train, to understand the difficult logistical support that the Abrams requires, and how to utilize them in a mixed military filled with all manner of weaponry supplied from all over western civilization. But this easier than rocket science to me: just break the fucking ice and stop letting Germany use the lack of Abrams sent to Ukraine as an excuse to block the sending of hundreds of German Leopard tanks that Ukraine needs to fight Russia and every country wants to send them... Exactly 84. All they need to do is knock the policy legs out from under Scholz. If they burn too much fuel and the Ukranians can't fix them then they sit. They can sit parked in Ukraine as well as they can sit parked State-side and if they knock Olaf off his backside it's a win/win. I can hear DOD say "But Scholz will only come up with another condition." OK let him. He is already trailing his own public's opinion, they will force him along sooner or later. Edited January 20, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 11 hours ago, romad1 said: Tomorrow will be a big deal. The world order will either break or be shored up by the Ramstein conference. And Today has arrived. We have our international relations bigs there: Austin for DOD, Burns for the IC, and Blinken for the State Department. Let the international system heal itself by cutting out the cancer of Russian aggression. That won't necessarily "scare" the other cancers but it will provide the process for fighting those other cancers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, romad1 said: ... but it will provide the process for fighting those other cancers. International cooperation and security. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Do better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I also want more forceful actions taken against Russia: 1) They have violated the UN Charter by attacking Ukraine. And they have never properly filed the paperwork required to be a member of the UN Security Council. I want them kicked off now. Refuse to conduct any Security Council meetings if Russian representatives are present, have them escorted out of those meetings. They are no longer a member of the UN Security Council until they file the proper paperwork (which then goes to a vote, in which the US, Britain and France veto of course. Certainly today they would, And they would demand an entire reform of the Russian governmental system). 2) Designate Russia a terrorist nation. Today. 'Nuff said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: I also want more forceful actions taken against Russia: 1) They have violated the UN Charter by attacking Ukraine. And they have never properly filed the paperwork required to be a member of the UN Security Council. I want them kicked off now. Refuse to conduct any Security Council meetings if Russian representatives are present, have them escorted out of those meetings. They are no longer a member of the UN Security Council until they file the proper paperwork (which then goes to a vote, in which the US, Britain and France veto of course. Certainly today they would, And they would demand an entire reform of the Russian governmental system). 2) Designate Russia a terrorist nation. Today. 'Nuff said. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 15 hours ago, romad1 said: Do better This 1000% falls on Germany, they have blood and their hands going foward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: This 1000% falls on Germany, they have blood and their hands going foward. Their PM appears to have been part of Vladdie's stable in the old days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Anyone else invested in Lockheed Martin and similar...? https://www.yahoo.com/news/stocking-ukraine-could-generate-foreign-164411796.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: Anyone else invested in Lockheed Martin and similar...? https://www.yahoo.com/news/stocking-ukraine-could-generate-foreign-164411796.html Waiting for an MBA class on how this is costing our taxpayers tons of money and those unfortunate investors who have stakes in the Russian economy tons of money and we should just let them be the dominant power in their sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the History class is playing out on the ground and in the cities of Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 this will help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: this will help Good I hope Canada sends them too, fuck the Germans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, romad1 said: this will help Damn! Finally! The big offers are Poland, Norway and Finland I believe. But I've lost track... I believe the sum total is several hundred total Leopards from multiple nations,,, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Oh wait... 110 of those are at Rheinmetall for refurbishment (older models) and are not spoken for by any army but... the refurbishment won't be completed until 2024... doesn't help Ukraine right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Oh wait... 110 of those are at Rheinmetall for refurbishment (older models) and are not spoken for by any army but... the refurbishment won't be completed until 2024... doesn't help Ukraine right now. I thought one idea was to swap consignment of some number in refurb as the backfill to a country that was willing to deliver equipment that was ready to roll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) No the refurb tanks are older de-commissioned models. Any backfills are going to be the newest model coming off the line. Ukraine gets the old from each country (and potentially, the refurbs at Rheinmetall); countries supplying Ukraine get the latest Leopards coming off the line from Rheinmetall as backfill... No way foreign countries would give theirs to Ukraine in order to receive refurbed older models... Rheinmetall won't start on the refurbs until receiving an actual contract... Ukraine could supply the contract/ payment (estim. at around 500 mill Euro) but then I would guess the contract has to be approved by the German government. I'm not certain if German government's "non-oppose" to foreign countries supplying to Ukraine would also apply a "non-oppose" to Rheinmetall supplying per a contract...? Edited January 23, 2023 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I was trying to add up some of the proposed from each country to guesstimate a total... but countries are not exactly willing to be forthcoming with this info yet... UK: 14 Challenger 2's from the United Kingdom. All others would be German Leopards. Poland: 14 to start. They could conceivably offer around 100 themselves if they wanted to... but this is the starting point. Once other countries commit, Poland may up their number. They are the MOST willing. Norway and Finland: I thought I saw an actual number pledged from Finland & Norway but now I can't find it. I believe 6 or 8 total countries aside from Germany have pledged to Ukraine to send... someone please break the ice. Germany could also send from active tank batteries or companies... I believe they have one older tank training company of 14-19 tanks they could de-commission and send to Ukraine and backfill with their own newest tanks off of the assembly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 PS: This just came through Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/22/germany-okays-a-dozen-polish-tanks-for-ukraine-hundreds-more-could-follow/?sh=2d4775cc7893 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: PS: This just came through Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/22/germany-okays-a-dozen-polish-tanks-for-ukraine-hundreds-more-could-follow/?sh=2d4775cc7893 this is all good - much later than it should have been to be there now when it's most needed, but good. But don't you have the gnawing suspicion that neither side in this war gains a clear advantage until they achieve air superiority on the battle field? The Russians have shown they can't, but the West continues to embargo air frames for Ukraine the would test the opposite proposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Listening to Amb Bill Taylor (of the basso profundo voice) this morning. He says that Ukraine will have what they need to expel Russia from its territory this Spring if the latest pledges are carried out. I hope somewhere in Ukraine or in western Europe our trainers are working up battalion tactical groups with simulated tanks. You can't just slap together units without that kind of training in command and control, tactics, and the basics of operating armored vehicles in the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, romad1 said: He says that Ukraine will have what they need to expel Russia from its territory this Spring We can only hope. There seem to be two lines on the graph going in opposite directions. The Russians started with their best kit and theirs is degrading while Ukraine's is improving, but the manpower line is going to keep tilting in the Russian direction as Putin continues ramp up the mobilization level in Russia. As Putin's inspiration (may have) put it, quantity has a quality of it own. I have to say I didn't think Russian society would put up the loses reaching what they already have, so all bets are off on what Putin may manage to drive them to. Edited January 23, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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