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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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I wasn't aware of Hersch until I saw the back and forth of him on Twitter and I do remember his take on Bin Laden.  Sounds like most of the journalism world has a similar view as Pfife.

He claims he has a source within the Navy and pointed to Biden saying Nord2 won't be around if Russia invades.  Weak sauce if a big part of your argument is a comment like that from Biden. 

That said, a few weeks ago I read how European intelligence says Russia has been moving forward quietly on fixing the pipeline which had them questioning why they would be working to fix them if they bombed them.  

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23 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

 

it's one thing to take them out of service for a short term geopolitical gambit, it's another to let the total investment go down the drain by leaving the damaged lines open to salt water to corrode into scrap. In fact I would actually invert the argument. If the Russians didn't want the line taken out of serivce - they would have moved to repair them immediately wouldn't they?

That said, our side did have an interest in making sure Germany didn't backslide on its Russian epiphany. If the recent row over Leopards is any indication having discounted gas from those pipelines off the table may be doing as much as any single factor preventing more German backsliding. In this world it seems anything is possible, but to this point I'm still coming down on the side of believing it's another of Putin's 7 dimensional chess gone awry before I'm persuadimg myself that the incredibly leaky US gov took the risk they could do this without being found out.

Edited by gehringer_2
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18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it's one thing to take them out of service for a short term geopolitical gambit, it's another to let the total investment go down the drain by leaving the damaged lines to corrode into scrap.

Also, there is a history of this sort of thing with this regime... the Chechen Apartment Bombings, for instance. Blamed on a convenient target (Chechen separatists), but widely believed that it was the government that ultimately blew them up and killed innocents in the process.

If one thinks about it in terms of domestic messaging / propaganda, the CB Ratio on blowing up the pipeline absolutely can make sense for Russia just given the above example.

Edited by mtutiger
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26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also, there is a history of this sort of thing with this regime... the Chechen Apartment Bombings, for instance. Blamed on a convenient target (Chechen separatists), but widely believed that it was the government that ultimately blew them up and killed innocents in the process.

If one thinks about it in terms of domestic messaging / propaganda, the CB Ratio on blowing up the pipeline absolutely can make sense for Russia just given the above example.

Big difference with the bombing, and I hate to say it, but I'm saying it based on how the Russians view it.... those were just people.  The pipeline, that was money to fix, possibly needing to rebuild completely, and assuming this war ends in the next year or two, lost production.  

Note though, i'm not saying the US did it or that Russia didn't do it.  Lots of compelling reasons for many countries to do it and a hell of a lot of risk if they got caught too.  

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24 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

The pipeline, that was money to fix, possibly needing to rebuild completely, and assuming this war ends in the next year or two, lost production.  

Have you considered that the money to fix the pipeline is worth it if it creates good domestic propaganda for his subjects? In terms of CB Ratio, it's seems plausible that it would be...

Having the pipeline bombed and blaming it on the west, as they are doing, is a gold mine... basically plays right into the message they are looking to convey to the population. Just as bombing the Chechen apartments (while blaming separatists) did over 20 years ago.

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On 2/7/2023 at 3:55 PM, romad1 said:

Reading with some reserve and caution that the Russians are losing huge numbers the last few days.  

Just about any other country losing their young men in great gobs in a folly like this would turn tail and sue for peace, but not a country that wears its WWII losses like a badge of honor. They’ve got a long, long way to go yet.

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11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

You see this syndrom a lot, it's the desperate fight against the dying of the light for a person who was once relevant and is now fading into irrelevance.

It's more than that, Hersch, along with other "antiwar" figures like Roger Waters (who has featured prominently in the news this week) and others, are emblematic of a reflexive anti-Americanism in terms of foreign policy. The reasons for how they came to be the way all vary and in in a lot of cases are more understandable than not... in Hersch's case, his career and breaking stories like My Lai and Abu Gharib would seem to lend itself to reflexive skepticism. 

But, in this particular conflict, Russia is to Ukraine what the US was to Iraq or Vietnam... Russia is the aggressor. The fact that people are fighting and dying in Ukraine right now falls onto the world leader who decided to invade a sovereign nation and attempt to decapitate this government. The US government didn't force him to give a televised speech to his people announcing the invasion, complete with illusions of reconstituting the old empire, he did. 

Logically, you would think this class of individuals would be repulsed by those actions... but instead, they do things like go out and demand Ukraine stand down and accede to Russian aggression. Or, in Hersch's case, push a thinly sourced and, in all likelihood, specious story advancing a convenient narrative while giving quotes to state media about it.

Now to be clear, none of this means that the United States has been perfect over the years in foreign policy, it hasn't. But it all kinda calls into question the "antiwar" bonafides if you are running cover for the aggressor in this case.

Edited by mtutiger
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5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's more than that, Hersch, along with other "antiwar" figures like Roger Waters (who has featured prominently in the news this week) and others, are emblematic of a reflexive anti-Americanism in terms of foreign policy. The reasons for how they came to be the way all vary and in in a lot of cases are more understandable than not... in Hersch's case, his career and breaking stories like My Lai and Abu Gharib would seem to lend itself to reflexive skepticism. 

But, in this particular conflict, Russia is to Ukraine what the US was to Iraq or Vietnam... Russia is the aggressor. The fact that people are fighting and dying in Ukraine right now falls onto the world leader who decided to invade a sovereign nation and attempt to decapitate this government. The US government didn't force him to give a televised speech to his people announcing the invasion, complete with illusions of reconstituting the old empire, he did. 

Logically, you would think this class of individuals would be repulsed by those actions... but instead, they do things like go out and demand Ukraine stand down and accede to Russian aggression. Or, in Hersch's case, push a thinly sourced and, in all likelihood, specious story advancing a convenient narrative while giving quotes to state media about it.

Now to be clear, none of this means that the United States has been perfect over the years in foreign policy, it hasn't. But it all kinda calls into question the "antiwar" bonafides if you are running cover for the aggressor in this case.

Britain had done a lot of horrible stuff over the years of their Empire,  they were a damn sight better than Nazi Germany and Japan and the Orwells and W.H. Auden and other left-wingers knew that.  

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