1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The difference between Soviet population and Russian population is almost wholly Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: And not every guy is fit for military service. Just spitballing here, but maybe another way things fall apart for Putin is if the regional authorities stop sending recruits. With the Russian Army nearly 100 committed they could be losing the leverage to coerce the hinterlands. Now in point of fact, the poverty out there has been enough that the money being offered has been enough draw even with the risk of ended up dead, but if reports about the Russian gov welching on payments are true, maybe it's someting to speculate on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 In short... Once they are forced to draft Muscovites and other ethnic Russians east of the Urals, instead of from the hinterlands... Putin will rapidly lose support. And encourage an overthrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Yes... if it comes to war with China, it will be naval and air forces that win out... Although I would think JASSM's would be useful on the China mainland (I don't see war going there...); and not so much in defending Taiwan from invasion... The entire battle plan for our defeating China is based on waves of JASSM with each missile destroying 1 Chinese warship a piece. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: In short... Once they are forced to draft Muscovites and other ethnic Russians east of the Urals, instead of from the hinterlands... Putin will rapidly lose support. And encourage an overthrow. This could well be his undoing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, romad1 said: The entire battle plan for our defeating China is based on waves of JASSM with each missile destroying 1 Chinese warship a piece. I didn't really think of air-to-ground as taking out naval ships... Is that how they work? I'm not up to speed on that aspect... (Thought they were more for taking out tanks/ ground forces/ artillery/ etc...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: I didn't really think of air-to-ground as taking out naval ships... Is that how they work? I'm not up to speed on that aspect... (Thought they were more for taking out tanks/ ground forces/ artillery/ etc...) check this out. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-ramps-up-jassm-work-begins-on-replacement/ The amount of "no comments" in that article is telling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 That's what I was thinking, that anti-ship would be a different missile... But I guess the LRASM is just a variant of the JASSM so close enough... BTW: Just saw Quantumania today which brings to mind all the Kang variants that will be floating around... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 And it says they haven't purchased very many LRASM's... That's going to need to change. Will need to ramp up those specific purchases up quickly this and the next few years... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: And it says they haven't purchased very many LRASM's... That's going to need to change. Will need to ramp up those specific purchases up quickly this and the next few years... They seem to like JASSM ER more and more and the anti-ship variant seems to work well when dropped out of a C-130 or C-17 in pallets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) This is tomorrow's first podcast of the day for me. My usual on weekends, is to do the honey do projects and listen to podcasts that I wish I was doing them myself. I learn alot. Mostly about envy :--). https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/russias-winter-offensive/ Edited February 19, 2023 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 15 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: And not every guy is fit for military service. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) it's interesting that if you are listening to the US MSM, you would probably have the impression that the Ukrainians are scrambling to prepare for an upcoming ramped up Russian offensive - while if you are listening to guys like Kofman, the story is that the Russians have already ramped up about as far as they are capable of going - the offensive is already ongoing, and that if the Russians cannot make major gains now (which they do not appear to be doing) it will likely be the Ukrainians back on the offensive in few months with the Russians having pretty much exhausted themselves-again. And of course the reason for the Russians driving themselves into a likely inferior strategic situation? The political imperative from Putin. Edited February 19, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: it's interesting that if you are listening to the US MSM, you would probably have the impression that the Ukrainians are scrambling to prepare for an upcoming ramped up Russian offensive - while if you are listening to guys like Kofman, the story is that the Russians have already ramped up about as far as they are capable of going - the offensive is already ongoing, and that if the Russians cannot make major gains now (which they do not appear to be doing) it will likely be the Ukrainians back on the offensive in few months with the Russians having pretty much exhausted themselves-again. And of course the reason for the Russians driving themselves into a likely inferior strategic situation? The political imperative from Putin. I would have agreed with you if I saw this post yesterday, but from my Sunday morning news shows, It seemed like it was a known consensus that we are now in the Russian offensive and that it started a week ago and making very small gains with major losses. Seemed like a complete flip from everything I've seen the last few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 16 hours ago, romad1 said: well ok In other news, it's reported the Russians are about done with repairs to the Kerch bridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 40 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I would have agreed with you if I saw this post yesterday, but from my Sunday morning news shows, It seemed like it was a known consensus that we are now in the Russian offensive and that it started a week ago and making very small gains with major losses. Seemed like a complete flip from everything I've seen the last few weeks. I suppose it was in the interests of Ukraine and its supporters to portray the future at defcon 2 terms at least up through the Munich conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, ewsieg said: I would have agreed with you if I saw this post yesterday, but from my Sunday morning news shows, It seemed like it was a known consensus that we are now in the Russian offensive and that it started a week ago and making very small gains with major losses. Seemed like a complete flip from everything I've seen the last few weeks. Yeah... I've been seeing reports on Russia ramping up their offensive for at least the past week or so... They are making some gains... but it's minimal. Yards. Not kilometers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Also, for at least the past week or two... Russian deaths with this surge are between 1,000 and 2,000 per day. We'll see how sustainable that is. And per G2, within the next month or two, Ukraine will be ready for a counteroffensive... that the Russian invaders will not be prepared for nor able to prevent. I'm not certain if it gets Crimea back for Ukraine... but that's exactly what THEY are planning for. Lose Crimea, and the egg on Putin's face will be fatal egg. Should I capitalize that? "Fatal Egg" causes Putin's fatality... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: Yeah... I've been seeing reports on Russia ramping up their offensive for at least the past week or so... They are making some gains... but it's minimal. Yards. Not kilometers. Yeah, i've been reading about the Wagner push for the past several weeks which has been moving the lines, albeit extremely slowly. I guess I was expecting a large scale assault on multiple fronts and possibly even from the Sea in the south. If this is it, sounds like the plan is to use bodies to exhaust ammunition from Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Sun Tzu sas, “Strategy without tactic is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." I had always heard this as: Strategy without tactics is Winston Churchill dropping the ANZACs at Gallipollii or the Anzio landings. Tactics without strategy is the Wehrmacht constantly punching holes into the Red Army to limited long term effect without the ability to form an effective defense because Hitler's no retreats orders made it impossible to form a cohesive defensive front. I have also heard this as tactics without strategy is pointless and strategy without tactics is bloodyminded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 31 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Wow meanwhile you hear that Pootin is traveling around in a tank for protection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I saw a tweet yesterday from one of the OSINT types that wondered about a high level of airborn NATO recon activity he had observed over Poland up to the Ukraine border. Guess now he knows why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Obviously the military was on special alert and Biden has Secret Service, but that still takes some balls to go to Kyiv. I'm honestly surprised he was even allowed too and the idea of it wasn't shuttered by Secret Service themselves. I just jumped on Twitter to see the response and it's 'oh, he'll go to Ukraine but not East Palestine'. I mean, I guess it's about the best misdirection you could try right now, but at some point you have to admit and admire the balls of this. Props to Joe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 MTG wants him impeached for going. 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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