gehringer_2 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I'm not going to lie, I'm not an expert on these things. I'm just going off of a statement made by the Fleet commander and like I said, somewhat walked back, but somewhat agreed to, by the Navy Secretary. But again, I am no expert, so it's 1984 and Gehringer vs the Navy Fleet Commander and the Navy Secretary. I do know math though, and 2 = 2, so I guess we have to call it a draw. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/navy-secretary-says-that-us-navy-may-need-to-choose-between-arming-itself-or-ukraine/ar-AA16eUtl meh - Everybody in the military wants a bigger piece of the pie at all times. And every service is immedately in the ear of their most captive media contacts everytime a dollar is being spent with another service. That's procurement politics. Sure if the Army burns stocks that leaves less budget for the navy in theory, but that assumes that the money being spent on Ukraine is not new money, which I will wager most of it turns out to be, so if it had not been spent there, it would not have been spent on new toys for the navy anyway. The US military budget is almost uncomprehendingly large. All the Ukraine expense so far has been pretty much rounding error. Edited January 18, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 True, but also note they didn't say weapons would be exhausted, they said supply chains. As you know already, i'm an idiot, but I hope those guys have more of a pulse on what is needed. Two years ago if I said there would be a chip shortage, would you have assumed it would be tougher to get a laptop or a car? Maybe it's nothing but what you're saying it is, but the comments from the Fleet commander made some news and forced a response from the Navy Secretary whom I'm sure had some comments from the White House to help force a response. Still it wasn't a complete walkback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, ewsieg said: True, but also note they didn't say weapons would be exhausted, they said supply chains. As you know already, i'm an idiot, but I hope those guys have more of a pulse on what is needed. Two years ago if I said there would be a chip shortage, would you have assumed it would be tougher to get a laptop or a car? Maybe it's nothing but what you're saying it is, but the comments from the Fleet commander made some news and forced a response from the Navy Secretary whom I'm sure had some comments from the White House to help force a response. Still it wasn't a complete walkback. Of course despite what Biden has said, do you think we start sinking Chinese Men-o-War in the Taiwan straight (and risking the sinking of a Bush class carrier or two)? I'm pretty much all in on Ukraine and I still have a lot of reservations about what it makes any sense for us to do in Taiwan. The tactical reality is that Ukraine is defendable against Russia because it shares hundred of miles of resupply border with the rest of Europe. There is a real front there on both ends. If China gets as crazy as Russia (which is still an open question) I'm not sure we can actually 'save' Taiwan even if we want to - it's a way tougher calculus. We can help make Taiwan enough of a porcupine to force the Chinese to re-evaluation the cost and hopefully change their declared intent, but if they are determined anyway???? Edited January 18, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Of course despite what Biden has said, do you think we start sinking Chinese Men-o-War in the Taiwan straight (and risking the sinking of a Bush class carrier or two)? I'm pretty much all in on Ukraine and I still have a lot of reservations about what it makes any sense for us to do in Taiwan. The tactical reality is that Ukraine is defendable against Russia because it shares hundred of miles of resupply boarder with the rest of Europe. There is a real front there on both ends. If China gets as crazy as Russia (which is still an open question) I'm not sure we can actually 'save' Taiwan even if we want to - it's a way tougher calculus. I thought if a democratic country wants to defend itself, we have no choice but to help them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I thought if a democratic country wants to defend itself, we have no choice but to help them. We could indeed help Taiwan in every way we are helping Ukraine and it might well make no difference. The decision tree is - or at least could reach quite different levels there. Even if we follow the logic and go to total conventional war with China, and even if we defeat them tactically, can we actually 'hold' Taiwan - or can it hold itself? Or are we looking at Iraq or Afghanistan where we simply can't overcome the proximity of forces we will not be willing to keep fighting forever? IDK - but it's a much more complicated nut to crack than Ukraine - IMHO. Edited January 18, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I'm not going to lie, I'm not an expert on these things. I'm just going off of a statement made by the Fleet commander and like I said, somewhat walked back, but somewhat agreed to, by the Navy Secretary. But again, I am no expert, so it's 1984 and Gehringer vs the Navy Fleet Commander and the Navy Secretary. I do know math though, and 2 = 2, so I guess we have to call it a draw. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/navy-secretary-says-that-us-navy-may-need-to-choose-between-arming-itself-or-ukraine/ar-AA16eUtl Well then... Here's a quickie for ya'... it's just a question... based on pure logic and actual facts, as of today: How much of a role has the Navy played in Ukraine's war? Since they are asking us to make a choice between Taiwan and Ukraine that is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I thought if a democratic country wants to defend itself, we have no choice but to help them. Well, our report card so far is: Defended democratic portion of South Korea (successfully) Defended democratic portion of Vietnam (unsuccessfully, and the "democracy" was highly questionable) Defended Cuba against Spanish Empire (successfully, went to war with Spain and subsequently took Puerto Rico & Philippines and offered democracy to both, but questionable support in Cuba (dictators) after that until Castro took over) Defended Afghanistan against Russian imperialism (successfully, materials supply until we lost interest and it fell apart) Defended Ukraine (democracy/ EU/ NATO wannabe) against Russian imperialism (successfully so far, money & materials only at this point. I'd love to see EU Peacekeepers establish a no-fly zone west of the Dnieper and bring in air defense, 90,000 EU troops, and EU fighter jets. But that's just me.) Defended Bosnia-Herzegovina & Kosovo after the EU flopped and the Muslims asked why we defended Israel but not them in the name of humanity and Serbia's genocidal attacks (successfully). Defended democratic separatists in Panama against Columbia and created a new democracy in central America (successfully). Oh, and Teddy Roosevelt decided he would get the Panama Canal built (several failures before him) because it would benefit all of the Americas... successfully. We've also: CIA overthrew democratically elected Iranian government (I think it was 1954? and installed the US-supporting "Shah") Supported multiple hard right wing governments including death squad regimes. Attacked Iraq based on pure lies/ fabrication and tried to install an Iraqi-type/requested-democracy. Mixed results. Support Saudi Arabia which in no way resembles a democracy. Support Israel which does. There's a mixed record in there but I think overall... The US ABSOLUTELY has a history of supporting democracy. In multiple countries/ regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 And I probably missed quite a few but those were the most notable I believe... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: No it doesn't. Taiwan is nearly 100% naval support. Ukraine is military supplies and economic support. One does not have an effect on the other. While I love the support. The Taiwan campaign -- when it happens -- will require HIMARS/ATACMS and Patriots and our latest and greatest systems. It will also require the support of ALLIES (e.g., Japan, South Korea, Australia) and you can only lock those down if you support your other allies. We need to provide that support. The most interesting thing I read yesterday was the CSIS wargame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The helicopter crash that occurred this morning in Ukraine involved the Minister of the Interior and his deputy. Ugh. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) The best part about support for Taiwan is that it can appeal to the racism of the GOP by othering the Chinese regime. We should make sure that we don't send Congressional delegations to Taiwan that might highlight that the Taiwanese are also yellow-people. Which is not to say that the Horseshoe GOP's support for Putin is based strictly on racism. Ukrainians are also white/ and in many cases descendants of the vikings, aka Hitler's chosen people. Their (Horseshoe GOP's) support for Putin is based on all that sweet Ca$h and all that sweet SVR bootie that he brings to the hookers and blow parties. Edited January 18, 2023 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 13 hours ago, romad1 said: The Putin thugs in the GOP and on the horseshoe left need to step back and understand that isolationism sells to the rubes but in a crunch we need alliances and those alliances need to be based on principles. Just because the billionaire fueled McCarthy Republicans don't have any principles doesn't mean that the majority of the country doesn't root for Ukraine and understand that there but for the grace of God and the St. Javelin go us. I think they understand what you say they should understand quite clearly. I also think they want nothing to do with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think they understand what you say they should understand quite clearly. I also think they want nothing to do with that. Yes, the only explanation for their apparent ignorance is that it is willful ignorance. They should see plenty of examples of the barbarity of the Putin regime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, romad1 said: While I love the support. The Taiwan campaign -- when it happens -- will require HIMARS/ATACMS and Patriots and our latest and greatest systems. It will also require the support of ALLIES (e.g., Japan, South Korea, Australia) and you can only lock those down if you support your other allies. We need to provide that support. The most interesting thing I read yesterday was the CSIS wargame. Serious question to the war gamers: Why should the Chinese invade Taiwan when they can strangle it into capitulation instead? " CSIS may have the right analysis but is it the right question? Marine invasion seems to me to be the least likely course of action for Beijng to get what they want. Edited January 18, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: Serious question to the war gamers: Why should the Chinese invade Taiwan when they can strangle it into capitulation instead? " CSIS may have the right analysis but is it the right question? Marine invasion seems to me to be the least likely course of action for Beijng to get what they want. I would offer that the premise of the game has to be a given to explore the worst case scenario. I would also offer that the result being a bloody stalemate in which the invasion fails is a piece of information designed to influence China to seek alternate means. ("If the Americans are thinking this will be a win albeit a bloody win, maybe we should try to figure out why they think that") If China hasn't also been doing these games they are foolish. Now, i note that the most popular advanced simulation for the general public is this thing called DCS which has all sorts of videos on youtube which always portray Russian systems as being 10 feet tall. Why? Because its a company run by Russians (out of Switzerland). When you watch these games they always include things the Russians clearly don't have ready (SU-57s). I think any sober individual who has watched the past year will revise their estimates at Russian Air Force effectiveness. Likewise, until China actually has to engage in air-to-air combat they might be advised to temper their expectations on what they can accomplish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 29 minutes ago, romad1 said: I would offer that the premise of the game has to be a given to explore the worst case scenario. I would also offer that the result being a bloody stalemate in which the invasion fails is a piece of information designed to influence China to seek alternate means. ("If the Americans are thinking this will be a win albeit a bloody win, maybe we should try to figure out why they think that") If China hasn't also been doing these games they are foolish. Now, i note that the most popular advanced simulation for the general public is this thing called DCS which has all sorts of videos on youtube which always portray Russian systems as being 10 feet tall. Why? Because its a company run by Russians (out of Switzerland). When you watch these games they always include things the Russians clearly don't have ready (SU-57s). I think any sober individual who has watched the past year will revise their estimates at Russian Air Force effectiveness. Likewise, until China actually has to engage in air-to-air combat they might be advised to temper their expectations on what they can accomplish. No doubt. No argument running the scenarios, that's basic. But one of the things that has emerged again with Ukraine is the gulf between our military 'hard' capabilities intelligence resources and our 'soft' or human strategic ones. Not to knock the former, its value is clear. But the human SW questions remain - and I suppose it's been a perenial argument ever since the first satellite was launched about whether we make sufficient effort to get inside our enemys' (and friends') heads to match that to get inside their physical capabilities. Edited January 18, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 hours ago, romad1 said: While I love the support. The Taiwan campaign -- when it happens -- will require HIMARS/ATACMS and Patriots and our latest and greatest systems. It will also require ... Two things: 1) That's why I said "nearly". It's in your quote of my post... 2) I believe Taiwan already has some American air defense systems. I haven't been following this aspect closely... but I don't believe they are starting from scratch. They may need more... but they're not starting from zero. One more thing: I want ATACMS in Ukraine. Like... yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: Well, our report card so far is: Defended democratic portion of South Korea (successfully) Defended democratic portion of Vietnam (unsuccessfully, and the "democracy" was highly questionable) Defended Cuba against Spanish Empire (successfully, went to war with Spain and subsequently took Puerto Rico & Philippines and offered democracy to both, but questionable support in Cuba (dictators) after that until Castro took over) Defended Afghanistan against Russian imperialism (successfully, materials supply until we lost interest and it fell apart) Defended Ukraine (democracy/ EU/ NATO wannabe) against Russian imperialism (successfully so far, money & materials only at this point. I'd love to see EU Peacekeepers establish a no-fly zone west of the Dnieper and bring in air defense, 90,000 EU troops, and EU fighter jets. But that's just me.) Defended Bosnia-Herzegovina & Kosovo after the EU flopped and the Muslims asked why we defended Israel but not them in the name of humanity and Serbia's genocidal attacks (successfully). Defended democratic separatists in Panama against Columbia and created a new democracy in central America (successfully). Oh, and Teddy Roosevelt decided he would get the Panama Canal built (several failures before him) because it would benefit all of the Americas... successfully. We've also: CIA overthrew democratically elected Iranian government (I think it was 1954? and installed the US-supporting "Shah") Supported multiple hard right wing governments including death squad regimes. Attacked Iraq based on pure lies/ fabrication and tried to install an Iraqi-type/requested-democracy. Mixed results. Support Saudi Arabia which in no way resembles a democracy. Support Israel which does. There's a mixed record in there but I think overall... The US ABSOLUTELY has a history of supporting democracy. In multiple countries/ regions. PS: I missed an obvious one: Defended Kuwait against Iraqi imperialism (successfully). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Two things: 1) That's why I said "nearly". It's in your quote of my post... 2) I believe Taiwan already has some American air defense systems. I haven't been following this aspect closely... but I don't believe they are starting from scratch. They may need more... but they're not starting from zero. One more thing: I want ATACMS in Ukraine. Like... yesterday. 1. Ok...no argument. 2. Yes but...we are repositioning and hardening things around the theater. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 i like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) And another step - a munition that would allow the Ukrainians to target almost all Russian assets in occupied Eastern Ukraine. Quote The package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/18/major-military-package-ukraine-russia-00078331 The GLSDB is not quite ATACMS, but it's another next step in giving Ukraine's forces more reach and will again force the Russians to reconfigure rear area assets they thought they had moved out of range of Himars. Edited January 19, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, romad1 said: i like I kind of feel Biden is turning up the pressure for negotiations. Instead of “how about you go home and stop embarrassing yourself”. It’s that plus, we might take Crimea too, how ‘bout that? Edited January 19, 2023 by ewsieg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, ewsieg said: I kind of feel Biden is turning up the pressure for negotiations. Instead of “how about you go home and stop embarrassing yourself”. It’s that plus, we might take Crimea too, how ‘bout that? Maybe. I tend to think we get no useful response from Putin until he makes his last throw later this year. I think he still thinks he can achieve his maximum goals, that he will have enough troops mobilized by some time after winter to break through Ukrainian defenses. He may be completely delusional in that belief, but short of defeat I'm not sure anyone will persuade him of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 9 hours ago, romad1 said: i like Meaning we send American troops and materiel to fight Russians on the ground? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: Meaning we send American troops and materiel to fight Russians on the ground? Material not troops. Ukraine and all the foreign volunteers can do the fighting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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