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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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Russia seems to be putting everything they can into Bakhmut and the recent rounds of missile strikes. Putin has been searching desperately for victory to hang on the wall - apparently to the point of dodging his normal public appearances waiting for one. 

The missile strategy has probably reached its point of decreasing returns because of depletion on the Russian side, increased AD resources going to theater and because Ukrainian coping strategies will evolve and improve. 

If Russia fails to produce a ground victory in Bakhmut, what will Putin's next spin on the narrative be?

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11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Russia seems to be putting everything they can into Bakhmut and the recent rounds of missile strikes. Putin has been searching desperately for victory to hang on the wall - apparently to the point of dodging his normal public appearances waiting for one. 

The missile strategy has probably reached its point of decreasing returns because of depletion on the Russian side, increased AD resources going to theater and because Ukrainian coping strategies will evolve and improve. 

If Russia fails to produce a ground victory in Bakhmut, what will Putin's next spin on the narrative be?

it will be: "we have to do everything in our power to prevent the NATO march on Moscow"

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Russia seems to be putting everything they can into Bakhmut ...

They've been chasing Bakhmut for at least 6 weeks now = ZERO results. And it's all Prigozhin's Wagner Group too. Including all the prison-soldiers he desperately turned to that have turned into... nothing but untrained cannon fodder.

This is egg on both Putin's AND Prigozhin's faces...

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I think Putin is doubling down...

It's why I would have no problem, immediately, sending ATACMS to Ukraine. They need the longer range... NOW.

I also expect him to force Byelorussia to capitulate and be incorporated into "Greater Russia"... soon. He'll offer Lyukashenko something cushy... Lyuka can't trust him but it's a deal he won't be able to refuse: either his signature on the deal or his brains.

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15 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think Putin is doubling down...

It's why I would have no problem, immediately, sending ATACMS to Ukraine. They need the longer range... NOW.

I also expect him to force Byelorussia to capitulate and be incorporated into "Greater Russia"... soon. He'll offer Lyukashenko something cushy... Lyuka can't trust him but it's a deal he won't be able to refuse: either his signature on the deal or his brains.

to double down implies he has more chips to put out on the table. Putin will be testing his assumption there.

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