mtutiger Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Too much psychic identity tied up in party affiliation for that generation of the GOP. These people are completely immobile psychologically or they already would have switched. Heck, based on their current politics every one of the guys in the Lincoln project should have just changed sides outright by now, and 40yr ago would have, but they don't have the imagination to envision their lives on the other side so they can't pull the trigger. I find it all so bizarre - I could switch parties in a NY minute if the Dems were to go through a transition anything like the GOP has. Heck, I cast any number of GOP votes - mostly in the the pre-Gingrich days. We're also looking at it through the lens of Never Trumpers who are high profile. People like, say, Bill Kristol, who's career and identity are entirely wrapped up in the Republican Party. Most people in real-life who identify with someone like Kristol, because they are normal people with normal lives who don't work in politics, have likely had less trouble shedding the identity and many of them will probably just vote like standard Democrats going forward. That's a big reason why I don't think, despite Biden's issues in polling, the suburbs are going to be reverting any time soon. A lot of these voters in these areas nationwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, mtutiger said: despite Biden's issues in polling, which I may or may not have just contributed to. Have a text message that is an invitation to a "live presidential tracking poll", whatever that is. Haven't the faintest idea if it is something legit or not. My first take would bot mischief or just another thinly veiled fund raising appeal. Not going to take the time to fine out. Deleted it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: which I may or may not have just contributed to. Have a text message that is an invitation to a "live presidential tracking poll", whatever that is. Haven't the faintest idea if it is something legit or not. My first take would bot mischief or just another thinly veiled fund raising appeal. Not going to take the time to fine out. Deleted it. Concur. But each of these surburban elections has been a bloodbath for the GOP since Jan 6 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Worth reading in full... the fact that Jake Sherman is writing all of this (considering he's basically a glorified stenographer for GOP House Leadership) says it all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: Worth reading in full... the fact that Jake Sherman is writing all of this (considering he's basically a glorified stenographer for GOP House Leadership) says it all When the House returns Johnson's speakership will collapse over resolution of the impending shutdown. The only question then remaining is whether there are 2-4 GOP reps who have had enough and will throw the speakership to the Dems, or whether we get one more short term, paralyzed, ineffective, speakership between now and the election. Edited February 15 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: When the House returns Johnson's speakership will collapse over resolution of the impending shutdown. The only question then remaining is whether there are 2-4 GOP reps who have had enough and will throw the speakership to the Dems, or whether we get one more short term, paralyzed, ineffective, speakership between now and the election. Maybe those folks retiring on the GOP side will go out with a middle finger? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 34 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: When the House returns Johnson's speakership will collapse over resolution of the impending shutdown. The only question then remaining is whether there are 2-4 GOP reps who have had enough and will throw the speakership to the Dems, or whether we get one more short term, paralyzed, ineffective, speakership between now and the election. They don't even really have to do that. 18 minutes ago, oblong said: Maybe those folks retiring on the GOP side will go out with a middle finger? One would hope. All these Republicans (moderate/ establishment/ whatever we want to call them...) need to do is to decide on a vote of no-confidence against the MAGA and hard-right Rep's. A hard decision to make... but... for the good of the country, right? As to my comment on G2's quote: If the moderate Republicans want to use their middle finger against MTG and her ilk: Collude with the Dems to oust Johnson. THEN: A Republican could STILL be Speaker (the moderates would not give up THAT right), but the Rules would be changed to be more inclusive of Dems, Bipartisan decisions would be made between the moderate Pubs and Dems, EXCLUDING the so-called "Freedom Caucus". Bipartisan efforts would be forced through using 100% Dems and the remaining 20-30 or so moderate Republicans. The House can function with a Republican Speaker. Just not a MAGA one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: When the House returns Johnson's speakership will collapse over resolution of the impending shutdown. The only question then remaining is whether there are 2-4 GOP reps who have had enough and will throw the speakership to the Dems, or whether we get one more short term, paralyzed, ineffective, speakership between now and the election. I don't think a Democratic speaker would work, but some sort of compromise with one of the retiring Congress members (Mike Gallagher would be the ideal) could maybe work. Problem there being that all of the retiring members probably want careers after Congress, and going against GOP Leadership probably ain't conducive to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: THEN: A Republican could STILL be Speaker (the moderates would not give up THAT right), but the Rules would be changed to be more inclusive of Dems, Bipartisan decisions would be made between the moderate Pubs and Dems, EXCLUDING the so-called "Freedom Caucus". Bipartisan efforts would be forced through using 100% Dems and the remaining 20-30 or so moderate Republicans. The House can function with a Republican Speaker. Conceivable. The question is whether there are enough 'moderate' GOP members to support this or whether it's more likely the Dems just get one or two blue district GOP members to turn. I may have less confidence there is enough middle left in the House GOP to do consensus government. But either way the GOP middle can't install one of their own without Dem support, so the companion question is can you get the Dems to support a moderate GOP member for speaker or will their calculus be "better to let the chaos reign until the election." We could easily make the mistake of giving the blue party more credit that they will earn when the time comes to choose. Or alternatively, what rules are the GOP middle willing to yield on to get the Dem support they need? It won't, and shouldn't come for free. Still lots of moving pieces on the board. Edited February 15 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I don't think a Democratic speaker would work, but some sort of compromise with one of the retiring Congress members (Mike Gallagher would be the ideal) could maybe work... Yes, this. 24 minutes ago, mtutiger said: ... Problem there being that all of the retiring members probably want careers after Congress, and going against GOP Leadership probably ain't conducive to that. Depends on WHO they want to work for. Major Republican donors are looking for exits away from MAGA. There may be opportunities starting to pop up for moderate Republicans, even in "conservative" industries. (if we're talking TV only, CNN and MNBC are looking for "normal" Republicans and not "flamethrowers" for a viewpoint from the "other side"...). That may have been true from 2016-2023... But I believe that is starting to change a little bit from blowback... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: .... I may have less confidence there is enough middle left in the House GOP to do consensus government. But either way the GOP middle can't install one of their own without Dem support, so the companion question is can you get the Dems to support a moderate GOP member for speaker or will their calculus be "better to the let the chaos reign until the election." We could easily make the mistake of giving the blue party more credit that they will earn when the time comes to choose. Or alternatively, what rules is the GOP middle willing to yield on to get the Dem support they need? It won't, and shouldn't come for free. Still lots of moving pieces on the board. Moderate Republicans so far have refused to break away. Understandable. And there IS enough of them. I have no idea how many... I think they're at roughly 20-30. It's enough. But they have to get to that "breaking point" that tells them they've just had enough of this ****show and it forces them to break away from Republican dogma and go to moderate "consensus" as you've pointed out. A very hard nut to crack. Maybe even impossible. But... we'll see... the House is reaching a boiling point from outside (my own) observation.... As for the second part on Dems: They'll do it under the right terms and conditions. They've already stated as such. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Incredible, so much for the House Impeachment Team's star witness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: Incredible, so much for the House Impeachment Team's star witness Now can we talk about Jared Kushner's deal with the murderer Saudi Prince where he got $2 Billion to fund his "private equity" firm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 15 hours ago, mtutiger said: Incredible, so much for the House Impeachment Team's star witness The obvious unspoken thing here is that Trump and his son-in-law did basically the same things they accuse Businessperson 1 and Public Official 1 of having done. Can’t wait until they accuse the Public Official 1 Crime Family of murder. Edited February 16 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, chasfh said: The obvious unspoken thing here is that Trump and his son-in-law did basically the same things they accuse Businessperson 1 and Public Official 1 of having done. Can’t wait until they accuse the Public Official 1 Crime Family of murder. It's always, always, always, and only, projection with these people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 They are comparing the House investigation of Private Citizen Biden to a Police Academy storyline... https://apple.news/AmCSXRvUXQaWyxmC2n0yOvQ Quote Prosecutors investigating Hunter Biden mistook a picture showing lines of sawdust for cocaine, lawyers for the US president’s son have said. The picture, which was found during a search of Mr Biden’s laptop and electronics, shows three lines of dust laid out on a piece of wood. Prosecutors believed Mr Biden had taken the picture himself but his legal team said in new court filings that it was sent to their client by his then psychiatrist as inspiration to overcome addiction. Dr Keith Ablow, sent the photo to Mr Biden in 2018, saying that it was “lines of sawdust sent to me by a master carpenter who was a coke addict”. The purpose, according to Mr Biden’s lawyers was “to convey that Mr Biden, too, could overcome any addiction”, the filing states. “I told him that, ultimately, [the carpenter] would have to choose between his art and his drug. He sent me the photo and a message that said, ‘Made my choice.’ Hope you do too,” the accompanying message, included in the filing, reads. “Mistaking sawdust for cocaine sounds more like a storyline from one of the 1980s Police Academy comedies than what should be expected in a high-profile prosecution by the US Department of Justice,” the filing reads. The filing comes amid special counsel David Weiss’s criminal investigation into Mr Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Tawny-colored sawdust is a different (wait for it... color!!!) than bright white cocaine. They couldn't tell the difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Tawny-colored sawdust is a different (wait for it... color!!!) than bright white cocaine. They couldn't tell the difference? GOP lawyers are stuck in a sepia toned 1950's world where everything looks sort of brown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: GOP lawyers are stuck in a sepia toned 1950's world where everything looks sort of brown? I thought the 1950's were more black and white, good versus evil than gray or sepia... 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Yikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Yikes MTG as speaker? Oh wait, Jim Jordan wants the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, mtutiger said: Yikes I'd guess part of this is McHenry's way of saying, "You could have had me and I would know what I was doing.: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: I'd guess part of this is McHenry's way of saying, "You could have had me and I would know what I was doing.: Clearly he's in DGAF mode.... but what's telling there is that, between the lines, he thinks a shutdown is gonna happen. Edited February 22 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 Amazing how retirement allows folks to keep it real.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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