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The 118th United States Congress


mtutiger
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Figured the knife fight for control of the chamber would be a good starting place here.

The working assumption seems to be that, assuming the GOP pulls it out, the Freedom Caucus will hold all the cards. But as the piece above suggests, that may not be entirely accurate; really, the "majority makers" when the votes are counted are going to be Republicans elected from Biden districts in New York who will want to be reelected in future cycles.  It stands to reason they will want to exert some pressure as well.

Either way, this process is going to be a nightmare for Kevin McCarty, particularly if they hold only between 218-220. 

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I think their constant investigations, while inflation remains high, are going to seriously backfire in their faces come 2023. I suspect their investigations will end up more politically unpopular than Biden is now. This will be a Newt Gingrich in 1998 level failure by McCarthy.

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Posted in a different thread... but I think it's appropriate here:

 

A disastrous, do-nothing, chaotic, investigation-filled (of absolutely nothing), zero-policy, near-government-crashing (due to a lack of funding/ debt ceiling agreement) next 2 years would show just how bankrupt Republicans are. Which looks like exactly what we'll get from this version of House Republicans.

The economy is still in full recovery and waiting to just take off, inflation and supply-side issues will soon resolve and get back to normal... so in 2 years Democratic policy/ choices will look golden and Republicans will resemble the aftermath of an alley cat fight.

2024 choices will be easy and engineer another Blue Wave. With or without Trump as the nominee. If Trump wins the nomination or goes 3rd party, that wave becomes a Tsunami... IMO.

All because these House Republicans will look like absolute shit to the rest (at least 70% that is) of America... 

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1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think their constant investigations, while inflation remains high, are going to seriously backfire in their faces come 2023. I suspect their investigations will end up more politically unpopular than Biden is now. This will be a Newt Gingrich in 1998 level failure by McCarthy.

I think this is true on balance, since we still have more reasonable people than wackjobs in this country and their numbers are not growing—although I also think we will be gobsmacked when we learn that the investigation is revealing nothing actionable, while their media plays everything up as the unimpeachable impeachable truth.

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1 hour ago, romad1 said:

It will be interesting to see him try this.  Is this his attempt to solidify the crazy vote for speaker.

Is the only way he can do that is to have a vote of the full house?  Otherwise the parties control who they put on the standing committees.  

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3 hours ago, romad1 said:

It will be interesting to see him try this.  Is this his attempt to solidify the crazy vote for speaker.

As with a lot of things that Kevin is talking about these days, it all comes down to getting the requisite votes - they can only lose 4. 

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1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

I think the hope is that behind closed doors, enough House republicans tell McCarthy that they won't vote with him to do this and he needs to just pretend he never said this and move on.  

I suspect that McCarthy is going to have 2 years of complete hell in trying to walk a tightrope from long standing GOP folks that are done with Trump and those of the MTG ilk that are positioning themselves for a role in a party still carried by Trump.

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24 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I think the hope is that behind closed doors, enough House republicans tell McCarthy that they won't vote with him to do this and he needs to just pretend he never said this and move on.  

I suspect that McCarthy is going to have 2 years of complete hell in trying to walk a tightrope from long standing GOP folks that are done with Trump and those of the MTG ilk that are positioning themselves for a role in a party still carried by Trump.

I think this is right. We can look at this past Congress as an example of how difficult it is to manage such a small majority - they managed to get a lot done, but it was incredibly challenging and, frankly, that was with a much better and more politically adept speaker than McCarthy will likely be in Pelosi.

A big part of this as well is the fact that two factions in the GOP have much different electoral concerns, not unlike this past Congress as well on the D side. It's easy to be MTG in a safe seat, lobbing grenades and stirring a pot, it's a lot harder and more difficult to be Don Bacon having to win in Omaha or one of the new NY Congressmen having to defend heavy Biden districts in a couple of years. Just altogether different pressure points / motivations.

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3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

... it's a lot harder and more difficult to be Don Bacon having to win in Omaha or one of the new NY Congressmen having to defend heavy Biden districts in a couple of years. Just altogether different pressure points / motivations.

Which...

Correct me if I'm wrong here...

Shouldn't the Dems be broadcasting loudly and clearly that they will put their full weight (100% of their votes) behind any speaker candidate that isn't a partisan hack? Doesn't that give a huge boost to centrist/ moderate/ establishment Republicans to attempt going that route? 

It might not succeed... but I'd be broadcasting it if I were the Dems to see what may or may not open up with that volley...

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4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I think this is right. We can look at this past Congress as an example of how difficult it is to manage such a small majority - they managed to get a lot done, but it was incredibly challenging and, frankly, that was with a much better and more politically adept speaker than McCarthy will likely be in Pelosi.

A big part of this as well is the fact that two factions in the GOP have much different electoral concerns, not unlike this past Congress as well on the D side. It's easy to be MTG in a safe seat, lobbing grenades and stirring a pot, it's a lot harder and more difficult to be Don Bacon having to win in Omaha or one of the new NY Congressmen having to defend heavy Biden districts in a couple of years. Just altogether different pressure points / motivations.

Can't remember which podcast I was listening to last week but they were talking about Pelosi and her background.  Family was a political family in Baltimore with mafia ties.  As such, she was constantly looking for a way to help someone out so she could in turn get some help when she needed it.  They pointed out an example with Ilhan Omar and Pelosi working to ensure she could wear her hijab.  So when progressives were after Pelosi, Omar never pushed like others as Pelosi had her back.  

I've heard from several past, but recent GOP reps talk about McCarthy and they seem him as nothing but a power hungry rep that has no conviction and they have no respect for.   

If true, it'll make Pelosi's straddling the edge over the last two years look like a cake walk.  

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