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2024 Mi Senate Race


CMRivdogs
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Way too early right? But as mentioned in another thread Stabenow has announced she's not running again. It should be an interesting race. 
 

John James and who else for the GOP? Mike Starkey? Jim Runestad?
 

Does Whitmer run? Killdee? Mayor Pete, or will he seek the Governor's office in '26? Elissa Slotkin seems like a natural to me right now.

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3 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Pete Butegieg is a Michigan resident now

I'm wondering if he sees a run for Governor more advantages than Senate. Either way it would rule out 2024 if Biden doesn't run, and give him some state cred if Biden seeks reelection 

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9 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I'm wondering if he sees a run for Governor more advantages than Senate. Either way it would rule out 2024 if Biden doesn't run, and give him some state cred if Biden seeks reelection 

His firearms training from the military will stand him in good stead if he wants to be governor of the backwoods crazies in Barry County et.al.,  

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There was never gonna be a good time to have an open seat, but this seems like a decent cycle for it - deep bench, MIGOP with a weak bench and a Presidential election cycle that will index the race pretty closely with results in the state.

Slotkin seems like the best overall candidate to me, but that does open her seat in the House up which is suboptimal 

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If Whitmer wants it, it is hers at this point. No one would beat Whitmer in a primary election. If she doesn't it will be a free for all.

I think any of the statewide candidates would have the most name ID and could potentially start with the biggest advantages there and in fundraising. So Garlin Gilchrist, Jocelyn Benson, and Dana Nessel would all have the advantage of statewide name ID. Garlin Gilchrist might be the strongest candidate of the three given that he is a candidate of color. This is all depending on if he wants this or to succeed Mike Duggan as Mayor of Detroit. I don't think Mike Duggan will go for it as he wants to be Governor after Whitmer from what I've heard. Dana Nessel doesn't have any real baggage, even though the media and pundits likes to pretend she does and that she's controversial. I think Nessel latest election result over DePerno proved she's plenty electable statewide. Jocelyn Benson was the top vote getter of the major statewide candidates and she is a strong fundraiser. She would be another really strong choice and would play well with white suburban women and college-educated progressives I feel.

Debbie Dingell and Elissa Slotkin will be the two strongest Congressional candidates in the race I think. I might throw Haley Stevens in there as well. Slotkin is probably a better candidate than Dingell, except for the fact that Debbie has the Dingell last name. Rashida Tlaib likely won't run and isn't electable statewide unfortunately due to her religion and the number of Islamophobic people out there, including in her own party. The Oakland County Jewish vote won't go for someone who speaks out against the apartheid state in Israel. As well, Rashida is just too controversial for too many people to win a statewide election. Shri Thanedar is a snake and would once again pretend to be a Democrat and go for it as well. If there are enough strong women in the race, I could see Shri winning that primary on 15% of the vote with all the vote splitting that could end up happening.

Any of the State Legislative candidates simply don't have enough name ID or clout to make the jump to Senator yet. While Mallory McMorrow raised over a $2 million in this last election for herself and the Senate Caucus in Michigan, this primary is going to be a $10 million or more race IMO. Can she get there? Maybe, but there will be other candidates that I think have an easier time doing so.

Garlin Gilchrist, Jocelyn Benson, and Andy Levin would be my personal top three choices for who I'd want to vote for.

My power rankings for the Senate seat would be as follows. These are not my favorite choices, just who I think ranks out as the strongest candidates for a statewide Senate seat.

  1. Gretchen Whitmer (far and away if she wants it)
  2. Garlin Gilchrist
  3. Jocelyn Benson
  4. Elissa Slotkin
  5. Debbie Dingell
  6. Dana Nessel
  7. Haley Stevens
  8. Shri Thaendar (Could win if 3-4 women start splitting votes)
  9. Mayor Pete
  10. Mallory McMorrow
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Dingell will be 71 in 2024, I would consider he age as a factor. 

Not a big Haley fan (personal reasons), she has the ambition, however.  I think Whitmer may have ruled out a run when asked a similar question a couple of weeks ago, that could change.

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16 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

 

I'm with Oblong... she may seriously consider it, but I doubt she actually does it. 

Some of it may have been her opponent (Karamo) and the relevance of SoS elections in 2022, but aside from Slotkin, Benson may be best positioned as she outran the rest of the statewide ticket. Even Whitmer (who has suggested she will not run)

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I always liked Candice Miller.  I respect her for leaving Congress after seeing what a shit show it became and realizing she can better use her skills to serve by going local.  That's what a true leader does.

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