Barack Obama won the White House with the name Barack Obama. The Republican Party did a full on assault on the poor guy over his association with his pastor Jeremiah Wright and it did not work on the whole. Obama still won in spite of the linty of attacks about it. Furthermore, Trump won't be on the ballot, so any bump Mike Rogers got last time around from Trump being on the ballot likely won't carryover into this election cycle. People didn't vote for Mike Rogers because he was this charismatic figure whom they adored, they were voting for Trump and happened to check the box for the other GOP Senate candidate. We've seen in 2018 and 2022 that when Trump isn't on the ballot and/or the midterm elections are a referendum on him, that Republicans perform poorly or underperform. Rogers will loose a solid chunk of his non-college educated, white working class voters due to Trump not being on the ballot and being wildly unpopular.
To me, whether Trump will or will not weaponize ICE in Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Canton, Farmington Hills, Novi, Rochester, or any community that has a high immigrant community voting populace (be it Arab-American like Dearborn/Heights or South Asian/Indian-American like a Canton/Novi Rochester) is not a deciding factor for or against Abdul. What is more of a deciding factor to me are the Arab-American, Muslim-American, and South Asian-American voters that Abdul can help us win over. I feel the block of voters he can help bring back into the fold is more than the amount of voters the Trump Administration would be able to suppress. We can bury our heads in the sand and say we don't need Arab or Muslim voters, but I simply think that is a mistake. We should be building a broad coalition, with as many voters as we can get. You can talk about voters in the middle that Abdul might turn off, but Haley Stevens is going to turnoff just as many Arab-American and Muslim-American voters with her unrepentant allegiance to AIPAC and the pro-Israel lobby.
Also, if you're a voter in the middle and you're angry about inflation, gas prices, the war raging on, or just mad at Trump and the party in power in general, do we really think all of that is going to be thrown out the window just because Abdul is who he is? I get that there will be a lot of bigotry and discrimination, just as there was against Harris in 2024. But when people are concerned or angry about their economic standing and voting based off of it, generally the party in power pays a political price for it. Maybe Abdul will be the exception of the rule because he's Arab-American and Muslim.
The other thing to note is gut feelings and vibes. Often times, people don't vote based on policy and specific stances a candidate takes on issues. Rather, they vote on vibes and what their gut tells them. When a candidate has the right vibe and goes against the grain as an outsider, as Trump fooled people into believing twice, people cast their ballots for them. In a Democratic Party that is seen as weak, feckless, and uncool, Abdul is the opposite. Elissa Slotkin herself was just on Bill Maher's program the other week talking about the energy and vibe of Democrats and how we need more alpha energy in the party. Who gives that off more than a workout bro and doctor like Abdul?
Sure, one could make the argument if they wanted that Abdul would give a bunch of racists "terrorist" and "un-American" vibes. But those bigoted people, who first and foremost judge a person by their race, religion, or identity, likely weren't voting for Haley Stevens or Mallory McMorrow either because they probably hate woman in leadership near or equally as much.
michigan and illinois numbers heavily boosted by final four and, in michigan's case, the championship game. not that michigan isnt a popular team, but they dont get more eyeballs than duke.
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