RatkoVarda

Fenway numbers are worse than I thought: .380 BABIP!; home ERA 5.95; home FIP: 3.25

FG 13. Eduardo Rodriguez*, SP, Age 29 Contract Estimate Type Years AAV Total Ben Clemens 4 $20.0 M $80.0 M Median Crowdsource 4 $18.0 M $72.0 M Avg Crowdsource 3.81 $18.2 M $69.3 M 2022 Steamer Projections IP BB% K% GB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR RA9-WAR 185.0 7.8% 26.2% 44.4% 3.65 3.68 3.72 3.7 3.8 Ben’s Take Good pitching is hard to come by. You can’t always check every box, which is why teams will back up a truck full of money for Rodriguez despite his 4.74 ERA in 2021. He was wildly unlucky on batted balls, allowing the second-highest BABIP in baseball. If you think Rodriguez will be less snakebitten next year, there’s a lot to like. Aside from a health scare that caused him to miss the 2020 season, he’s rarely missed a turn, making 31 starts this season and 34 in 2019. He doesn’t always give you great length — this year’s 31 starts covered only 157.2 innings — but turn a few more batted balls into outs, and the length could appear out of nowhere. Of the top 25 free agents, Rodriguez might be the least decorated — but he also might be the best bargain for a contender who believes in his peripherals. Player Notes Rodriguez missed the entire 2020 season due to myocarditis stemming from COVID-19 but came back to log 157.2 innings of roughly league-average run prevention in ‘21. His strikeout and walk rates were both career bests, however, and he ended up setting a career high in WAR as a result. A .363 BABIP allowed, in combination with a career-low 68.9% strand rate, oddly yielded a career-high ERA, despite everything else being seemingly very solid. A lot of these woes were mostly relegated to the first half, including a horrid May that saw him allow 24 runs in 29.2 innings; from August 1 through the end of the season, on the other hand, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.26 ERA and produced 1.7 WAR. Overall, Rodriguez isn’t a frontline starter, but he’s the type of pitcher who will do many things slightly better than league-average, culminating in a productive arm pretty much every season. At just 28, Rodriguez also has the distinction of being the youngest starting pitcher on our top 50, perhaps suggesting that he is among the likeliest candidates to receive a longer-term deal if he wants it, even though he may not be one of the flashiest names on this list.

his ERA and BABIP were crazy high because of Fenway and the Red Sox D suxxed; his EV was very low; all the deeper metrics says he is better than his ERA

if current system holds, Tigers forfeit their 3rd round pick (#85 or so).

5/77 to 5/80 per Passan, for age 29-33 seasons

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/tigers-nearing-deal-with-eduardo-rodriguez.html

tuned in late in thw 4th; never laughed so much during a football game in my life

no idea if this goes anywhere but nice to see https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/tigers-interested-in-jon-gray.html

Garrett Hill is an AFL Fall Star https://www.mlb.com/news/detroit-tigers-fall-star-garrett-hill-enjoying-afl-success

they will circle back to some of those MiL guys, but I assume they are done with Stewart. Stewart is more talented than 98% of the world, but still not good enough. Baseball is hard.

from 2018-20, Semien was one of the top defensive SS in baseball; in the one year he played great defense at 2B, he did not forget how to play SS as others have said, play him 2 years at SS, hopefully someone will move him to 2b when Schoop leaves.

it is really simply math; even with Miggy, they are about $130M under the luxury tax. his presence is not stopping them from signing anyone. put it another way: having $160M under the tax is the same as having $130M. the situation you describe does not apply to the Tigers. outside of Grossman, they wasted a lo last year dumpster diving, spending over $16M last year to retain or sign Norris, Urena, Tehern, Ramos, Mazara, JaCoby and got - Reece Olson for all that money. They could have signed Semien for $20M.

any team that spends money on free agents is bound to have some dead weight by virtue of performance, health, or luck variation. The Rays once signed Pat Burrell as a FA and he tanked. The Yankees have a lot of dead weight. The Reds screwed themselves by signing too many high risk guys and now they are trying to reset. But the idea that Miggy's contract is some sort of impediment to spending is a red herring IMO

FG comes in a 4/80 for Baez??? if that is the price, with no draft pick hit, Avila should sign him today 12. Javier Báez, SS/2B, Age 29 Contract Estimate Type Years AAV Total Ben Clemens 4 $20.0 M $80.0 M Median Crowdsource 4 $20.0 M $80.0 M Avg Crowdsource 4.38 $19.9 M $87.2 M 2022 Steamer Projections PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR 574 5.1% 31.2% .242 .288 .443 .310 94 -2.9 3.6 2.0 Ben’s Take You should want your team to sign Javier Báez. You might not know this to be the case; maybe you think you’re set in the middle infield, or don’t think his numbers are sustainable, or think his plate discipline will catch up to him soon. He struck out more than a third of the time this year and had one of the worst chase rates in baseball; it’s not hard to convince yourself that he might have some downside risk. And yet, you should want your team to sign Báez. Baseball is a game, and I can’t think of many players who have more fun playing it or produce more memorable moments. Dazzling defensive plays, genius-level baseball IQ, wild swings at shoelace-high pitches that nonetheless produce home runs; Báez does it all, and he does it with an infectious grin. You’re going to watch a ton of your team’s games; those games will be more enjoyable with Báez playing in them. Oh yeah: he’s good, too. Maybe he won’t replicate his offensive numbers again, but he’s a sterling defender with plus power. At only 28 (29 next season), he could be a force for years to come. That and the sheer joy he plays the game with? It’s a hard package to dislike. Player Notes Welcome to the winter’s most fascinating free agent. Báez’s track record is as excellent as his approach is horrifying, and that alone makes for a zesty profile. On top of that, Báez is also the only star free agent shortstop who comes without a qualifying offer attached, a significant consideration in the prospect-hugging era. Undoubtedly, many clubs will be spooked by his regressing plate discipline, particularly as he enters his 30s: Báez’s game only works because of his electric bat speed, and even the brightest physical attributes fade with time. But anyone who can stomach potential snake eyes has plenty to gain if they roll boxcars. Toss out 2020, and Báez has averaged nearly 4.5 wins over his last three full seasons. That’s well ahead of Carlos Correa and Cory Seager’s production, and he doesn’t have any of the scary nagging injuries that have dogged those two in recent seasons. Wherever he goes, a short, front-loaded, high-AAV deal seems like the sweet spot for all parties. Teams like Detroit and Seattle, clubs with money to spend, wins to chase, and a good reason to hang on to their 2022 draft picks, should be very interested. – BG

4/60? the guy is a 3 WAR player pitching (successfully) with 1/2 his games in Colorado. The analytics dept is basically nothing with the Rockies. Is there something more there? I don't know. Even if there isn't more, he would be a good addition IMO. Health and years are always the issue.

Jon Grey did not get a QO; should definitely take a long look at him

The Baez who played for the NYM is worth 30M/year

he was awesome with the Mets

they are not done shuffling the roster, but Elvin was low on my list of additions, he got progressively worse as season went along

Myers IMO would be a good addition. Grossman just had a career year, can he repeat? Baddoo could surge, also he could struggle. Greene and Tork will be in Detroit, but when? Miggy has huge injury and production risks at his age. It would not be a problem if they had 6 productive guys for 5 positions. He is waaaay overpaid, so SD would need to add a significant sweetener, and they are probably very motivated to gain some payroll flexibility.

maybe, maybe not; but they need to have a plan B if the big market teams grab all the big FAs Taylor Walls or Joey Wendle of Tampa might be obtainable

like the deal a lot, and Barnhart has 2 Gold Gloves, but the Reds team ERA with Stephenson catching in 2021 was way better. Fluke? or underlying issue?

7.5M is a bit much, but very few other options and just 1 year, and then Jake and Dingler join Haase. Greiner and Garneau will not be offered ML deals; either one at Toledo is fine on a minor league deal. Quintana is awful. If you are trying to read the tea leaves, this is an excellent first move considering Barnhart's salary.

Avila may not be creative enough to do this, but if they sign FAs before the lockout, and pay big signing bonuses instead of 2022 salary, I wonder if they can game the system somewhat. like Chris Taylor - 4/60, with $12M signing bonus, and salaries of 3/15/15/15 to the extent there is a lockout, Taylor would lose just some of his $3M salary

Colt Keith https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-detroit-tigers-prospect-colt-keith/