Edman85

If they blow the division and miss the playoffs, probably would have done that if they gave up prospects for a higher priced reliever anyways.

Today in Lightning... A storm is rolling through town but doesn't make it to the beach. The commish of the volleyball league cancels games because lightning is in range and he doesn't want his helpers to have to set up the courts in that. The group text is ripping him to shreds because it isn't raining there.

Gonna go on a limb and suggest this doesn't change the next 3.5 years or so, or the decades it takes cleaning up this mess.

I had a former colleague who got a huge dataset and ran some quick code on it, promised our bosses it was a panacea and it was on me to validate it. I spent months trying to clean all the data his automated code missed and eventually rejected the database because the data was incorrect in far too many places.

Now now, Riley Greene was the Tigers nominee last year, and Niko Goodrum in 2019. But yeah, a lot of Eric Haase, Matt Vierling, and Robbie Grossman in between.

The lightning safety advocates I have started following on the socials have started going after MLB for not being strict enough. Notably leaving the umpires in charge of making the lightning call. The balk call in Jacksonville last month being one such incident...

Oh... I didn't mention I was struck when I was 15, laying inside by a window when it struck the tree right outside and got into our house's electric system via electric dog fence. Not a direct strike, but enough to make me numb and slur speech for 30 minutes or so.

If you are connected with me on the socials, you know this is a hot button issue for me. This may belong in the pet peeve thread, but hey. I'm fired up this week because in the past week in my beach volleyball leagues, I have walked off the court when lightning was clearly too close and everybody just kept on playing. While I am outspoken about it and bring it on, I am insulted regularly for this, masculinity questioned. People in the league just keep on playing until the rain comes, and then when it is finally cancelled they hang out at the outdoor bar near the courts. Last week my playoff game was a forfiet (until it wasn't when they called it ten minutes later). Often, people will wait out lightning delays under a tent. One time several years ago golfing, I heard thunder, saw lightning, but was not driving the cart and had to walk basically a mile back to my car because the person driving the cart refused to go to shelter. Earlier this year, I was boating with friends. I had been monitoring the weather all week and thought we were likely okay if we got back to the dock by 3-4pm. The sandbar we were at was an hour or so away from the dock. I saw clouds building up around 2:30 and was ignored for 45 minutes by the masses who relied on "future radar" to say we are okay. We got caught in a nasty lightning storm after waiting too long. Time and time again, other people around me ignore the danger of lightning or just do the dumbest things during storms, and I feel like I am on an island taking precautions. Just needed to vent...

He re-signed.

More gerrymandering means more districts where the only competitive race is who can out extreme the other in a primary. No thanks.

The 40 man is going to be crowded; I don't know that he gets protected.

The break-even rate for that situation is pretty low, though. I don't mind the aggression.

A good dive into Alt National Park's blatant plagiarism. https://jjoycelynch.substack.com/p/the-alt-national-park-service-on?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

Tigers reply guys on twitter being used as an authoritative source is an absolute hoot.

Midterms and some checks on this maniac's power can't come soon enough.

My Occam's Razor guess is park effects/weather.

Statistical bonuses are allotted based on % of that stat accumulated with each team. There's a minor bug in my table, but I will address that once Paddack or Montero hit their numbers. Postseason/award bonuses are allotted based on when they happen. The Tigers are on the hook for whatever percentage of the stat came with them. I found out last year, these are paid out at the end of the year, not when triggered, to avoid constant denominator changes.

Tyler Owens released. Very likely procedural and he'll be re-signed. He's injured, so they couldn't outright him.

Performance bonuses... These are apportioned based on which team the stats are accumulated if a player is traded midseason. Player Incentive Incentive $ Tig Inc Reached X X No Buyout With Tigers Total Javier Baez MVP Award $2,000,000.00 $2,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Alex Cobb 140 IP $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 Alex Cobb 150 IP $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 John Brebbia Buyout $500,000.00 $500,000.00 X $500,000.00 $0.00 Chris Paddack 140 IP $500,000.00 $25,641.03 $0.00 $0.00 6 117 Chris Paddack 150 IP $500,000.00 $25,641.03 $0.00 $0.00 6 117 Chris Paddack 160 IP $750,000.00 $38,461.54 $0.00 $0.00 6 117 Chris Paddack 170 IP $750,000.00 $38,461.54 $0.00 $0.00 6 117 Chris Paddack WS MVP $100,000.00 $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Chris Paddack LCS MVP $50,000.00 $50,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Chris Paddack Gold Glove $25,000.00 $25,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak Buyout $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 X $1,000,000.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak Cy Young $100,000.00 $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak Cy Young 2 $75,000.00 $75,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak Cy Young 3 $50,000.00 $50,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak Cy Young 4-6 $25,000.00 $25,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak WS MVP $100,000.00 $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak LCS MVP $50,000.00 $50,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Randy Dobnak Gold Glove $25,000.00 $25,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Rafael Montero 30 GF $250,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 11 Rafael Montero 50 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 39 Rafael Montero 55 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 39 Rafael Montero 60 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 39 Rafael Montero 65 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 39 Rafael Montero 70 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 39 Rafael Montero Reliever of the Year $100,000.00 $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Rafael Montero 2nd/3rd Reliever of the year $65,000.00 $65,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 Paul Sewald Buyout $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 X $1,000,000.00 $0.00 Paul Sewald 40 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 18 Paul Sewald 45 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 18 Paul Sewald 50 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 18 Paul Sewald 55 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 18 Paul Sewald 60 G $100,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0 18

CBT Calculations, but a few things I don't know. I don't know the cash considerations that came with Morton. I just guessed $2M. Cot's assumes half the remaining, which is a bit more than that. The Astros sent cash with Montero when he was traded to the Braves. I have no idea if that automatically comes with; there was no mention of cash considerations in the trade. All other cash deals are assumed to be $100K. I don't know Geoff Hartlieb's salary, nor Codi Heuer. I assumed league min for Hartlieb, and $800k/$180k split for Heuer since he signed early in the offseason. I am assuming Sewald and Dobnak are bought out. Buyouts count toward current year luxury tax total. Player CBT Total Jack Flaherty $27,500,000.00 Javier Baez $23,333,333.33 Gleyber Torres $15,000,000.00 Alex Cobb $15,000,000.00 Kenta Maeda $12,000,000.00 Tarik Skubal $10,150,000.00 Tommy Kahnle $7,750,000.00 Colt Keith $4,773,750.00 Rafael Montero $3,709,677.42 Jason Foley $3,150,000.00 Matt Vierling $3,005,000.00 Charlie Morton $2,838,709.68 John Brebbia $2,750,000.00 Paul Sewald $2,712,903.23 Jake Rogers $2,640,000.00 Chris Paddack $2,540,322.58 Casey Mize $2,340,000.00 Randy Dobnak $2,016,129.03 Kyle Finnegan $1,823,643.55 Zach McKinstry $1,650,000.00 Andy Ibanez $1,400,000.00 Will Vest $1,400,000.00 Beau Brieske $1,025,000.00 Jose Urquidy $1,000,000.00 Riley Greene $812,400.00 Akil Baddoo $800,000.00 Tyler Holton $797,700.00 Kerry Carpenter $796,800.00 Reese Olson $787,100.00 Spencer Torkelson $785,700.00 Alex Lange $782,200.00 Parker Meadows $781,600.00 Wenceel Perez $770,700.00 Brant Hurter $767,100.00 Sawyer Gipson-Long $763,600.00 Dillon Dingler $762,600.00 Ty Madden $761,400.00 Jackson Jobe $760,900.00 Brenan Hanifee $759,095.70 Trey Sweeney $529,984.95 Tomas Nido $518,951.61 Sean Guenther $511,143.01 Jahmai Jones $500,806.45 Manuel Margot $443,548.39 Chase Lee $436,717.20 Justyn-Henry Malloy $407,183.20 Keider Montero $398,143.39 Carlos Hernandez $280,645.16 Troy Melton $277,849.46 Luke Jackson $265,591.40 Bailey Horn $259,334.84 Ryan Kreidler $236,399.35 Jace Jung $202,866.67 Codi Heuer $171,854.84 Dylan Smith $146,245.70 Dietrich Enns $135,215.05 Matt Manning $133,571.52 Tyler Owens $129,351.61 Brewer Hicklen $90,877.42 Matt Gage $81,720.43 Tyler Mattison $62,000.00 P.J. Poulin $28,333.33 Geoff Hartlieb $24,516.13 Ryan Cusick $1,666.67 Jordan Balazovic $0.00 Wilmer Flores $0.00 Brian Serven $0.00 Bligh Madris $0.00 Ryan Miller $0.00 Gage Workman $0.00 Alex Faedo -$100,000.00 Eduardo Rodriguez -$933,333.33 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool $1,666,666.67 Player Benefits $17,500,000.00 CBT Payroll $188,538,548.96 CBT Threshold $241,000,000.00 CBT Room $52,461,451.04 (Does anybody know how to get rid of the following? I can't figure out how to delete it...)

Eh... there's attrition between now and October, so it's nice to stockpile as many as you can and have more to choose when setting the playoff roster. I'm of the believe a healthy SGL is better than all of the above and Paddack.

Still short rest for him

Reliever By From Ath Grade WPA Before WPA After WPA Post Team Finish Lucas Erceg Royals Athletics A- -0.02 1.04 0.58 LDS Tanner Scott Padres Marlins B+ 2.44 0.72 0.18 LDS Ryne Stanek Mets Mariners B -0.4 0.1 0.16 LCS Michael Kopech Dodgers White Sox B+ -1.85 1.82 0.14 WS W Mark Leiter Jr. Yankees Cubs B 0.64 -0.18 0.13 WS L Nick Mears Brewers Rockies A- 0.86 -0.19 0.13 WC Jason Adam Padres Rays B 1.67 0.83 0.12 LDS Seranthony Dominguez Orioles Phillies B -0.01 0.27 0.09 WC Gregory Soto Orioles Phillies B- 0.26 -0.35 0.02 WC Caleb Ferguson Astros Yankees n/a -0.28 -0.39 0.01 WC Luke Jackson Braves Giants B+ -0.84 -0.48 0.00 WC Tanner Banks Phillies White Sox B+ -0.09 -0.15 -0.01 LDS A.J. Puk Diamondbacks Marlins A- -0.17 0.91 DNQ Jakob Junis Reds Brewers A- 0.7 0.77 DNQ Ryan Yarbrough Blue Jays Dodgers B- 0.04 0.75 DNQ Lucas Sims Red Sox Reds B -0.53 0.35 DNQ Andrew Chafin Rangers Tigers B 0.31 0.26 DNQ Nate Pearson Cubs Blue Jays B -0.03 0.1 DNQ Yimi Garcia Mariners Blue Jays B 1.78 -0.28 DNQ Dylan Floro Diamondbacks Nationals A -0.17 -0.34 DNQ Luis Garcia Red Sox Angels A- 1.17 -0.46 DNQ Jalen Beeks Pirates Rockies C -0.38 -0.69 DNQ Huascar Brazoban Mets Marlins n/a -0.62 -0.47 DNP LCS Tyler Zuber Mets Rays n/a 0.1 DNP DNP LCS Shawn Armstrong Cardinals Rays C+ 0.93 0.75 DFA Enyel de los Santos Yankees Padres B+ -0.92 -0.09 DFA Trevor Richards Twins Blue Jays B -1.26 -0.27 DFA

Before I post the results, I gathered the following for every major league reliever acquired in the week leading up to last year's deadline: Win Probability Added (WPA) before the trade. WPA for the acquiring team (regular season). Postseason WPA The Athletic's Trade Grade for that trade Ranked by postseason WPA, any guesses roughly what the leader's total ended up being? What about second place (a bit of a hint that the leader was something of an outlier). I'll post later tonight. Note, I focused on WPA because I really don't like WAR for relievers and wanted to look at how they affected the team's postseason fortunes.

For a front office that is so tough to deal with, they sure made a lot of trades (8) with several different teams (7) leading up to the deadline.