Jim Cowan Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Tenacious D said: I think we had Leon Roberts and Danny Meyer coming, too. If Al Gore had been born 30 years earlier and had the internet ready by 1975, we probably would have been lamenting that Campbell should have been moving the old ‘68 guys, like Freehan, Stanley and Hiller for prospects. Campbell actually admitted that - he let the '68 team get old, his biggest regret. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, chasfh said: Harris is out of time. Win a ring now or hit the bricks, buddy. I don't expect a great team immediately. If they put together a team with 81 win talent, maybe they'll get lucky and hit 85 wins and compete for the division title. Given how terrible their offense was in 2022, I was hoping they would at least find some stop position players for a year or two. This year I am hoping, at minimum, for a starter and a hitter. They can do that and continue to devolop players at the same time. They have had losing teams for 7 seasons. It is natural that fans would be getting restless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I don't expect a great team immediately. If they put together a team with 81 win talent, maybe they'll get lucky and hit 85 wins and compete for the division title. Given how terrible their offense was in 2022, I was hoping they would at least find some stop position players for a year or two. This year I am hoping, at minimum, for a starter and a hitter. They can do that and continue to devolop players at the same time. They have had losing teams for 7 seasons. It is natural that fans would be getting restless. Maybe we have the basis of an 81-to-85-win team in house today, and we’re just a year early on them at the moment. We’re not going to get top position players off the market, and unless he is a total wizard, I don’t see Harris being able to trade for one without giving up serious capital in return. Maybe Max Clark would have to be part of that, who knows? I’m sure he’ll get some position players in, possibly a distressed underachieving asset. Or maybe he can swing a Jimienez-type deal involving Lange or Foley and pick up a JHM-type guy in return, the kind of guy more likely to help in 2025 than 2024. Or maybe we’ll be looking at his acquisition at the end of March wondering what the heck was he thinking picking that guy up, but we might think differently about it once June or July come around. The one thing I truly doubt will happen is that we offer a package like Skubal and Jobe and Jung and Keith for an established Padre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 If they have an 81-85 win in house already, then make it a 85-88 win team. I don't want any of those Padres contracts. Sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Jung Hoo Lee. Be a wizard and make a Carlos Guillen type deal. Maybe they can't do any of that this off-season, but that kind of movement should not be viewed as beyond their means and ability. There are teams that improve every off-season. Why not us with our savvy new front office? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Harris is out of time. Win a ring now or hit the bricks, buddy. Forget Greenberg. When can you start? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, 1776 said: Forget Greenberg. When can you start? I’m unemployed for a reason. 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 Yamamoto or bust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 17 hours ago, Tiger337 said: If they have an 81-85 win in house already, then make it a 85-88 win team. I don't want any of those Padres contracts. Sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Jung Hoo Lee. Be a wizard and make a Carlos Guillen type deal. Maybe they can't do any of that this off-season, but that kind of movement should not be viewed as beyond their means and ability. There are teams that improve every off-season. Why not us with our savvy new front office? Our savvy new front office improved us this season from offseason moves. I like our chances of them improving us next season same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: Our savvy new front office improved us this season from offseason moves. I like our chances of them improving us next season same way. Cabrera and Rodriguez are coming off the books, so they should be able to do more than last off-season unless they plan on cutting the budget even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Cabrera and Rodriguez are coming off the books, so they should be able to do more than last off-season unless they plan on cutting the budget even more. It wouldn’t surprise if their payroll were less next year than this, since $50 million or so is a lot to come off the books all at once, but I can also envision them signing more free agents this winter than last winter. I agree that this winter is a litmus test for Harris and expectations are higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 33 minutes ago, chasfh said: It wouldn’t surprise if their payroll were less next year than this, since $50 million or so is a lot to come off the books all at once, but I can also envision them signing more free agents this winter than last winter. I agree that this winter is a litmus test for Harris and expectations are higher. I can see them spending a fair chunk of change on pitching - lots of room there. I suspect position player signings are going to be limited - just because they have so many position players who are done at AAA they need to see play at the ML level. Even if you jettison Short, Ibanez, Baddoo, and McKinstry, Maton, (and I think dumping Short is doubtful) you're still looking at call ups for Keith, Perez, Malloy, Bigbie, Kriedler and Jung. So that's 5 spots opened and 6 possible refills before you sign anyone from the outside. So granted - they aren't going to call up 5 rooks at the same time, but three on the team at a point next season is reasonable, so that leaves room to sign roughly 2 solid everyday position players for before you start creating log jams. So I'm at least hoping that this season they shift from signing quantity (Maton/Vierling/McKinstry/Maton/Ibanez last season) to signing quality - maybe only one or two guys but bona fide ML players. Or we'll see the standard fallback to fishing for rehabbers to flip. Kelly will probably be gone as well but that will be a catcher for catcher replacement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: It wouldn’t surprise if their payroll were less next year than this, since $50 million or so is a lot to come off the books all at once, but I can also envision them signing more free agents this winter than last winter. I agree that this winter is a litmus test for Harris and expectations are higher. It is also could be a test of how much Ilitch is willing to spend now and in the future. Having a competent front office is really important but williningness of the owner to spend is also really important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: ... Even if you jettison Short, Ibanez, Baddoo, McKinstry and Maton... None of these guys will be jettisoned IMO. At least not before the end of Spring Training. I'll take that back if a 40-spot is needed... But aside from that... This is one of the reasons there will be no position players FA's this offseason. That, and they (FA's) are almost all crappy options. A trade, maybe... but I see no FA's for position players this offseason. And Harris is going to sift through Malloy, Jung, Keith, Wenceel, etc... before looking at signing a position FA. Book it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: None of these guys will be jettisoned IMO. At least not before the end of Spring Training. I'll take that back if a 40-spot is needed... But aside from that... I would pray for a major fan revolt if all those guys are brought back. I'd even help lead it. Edited September 25, 2023 by gehringer_2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: None of these guys will be jettisoned IMO. At least not before the end of Spring Training. I'll take that back if a 40-spot is needed... But aside from that... This is one of the reasons there will be no position players FA's this offseason. That, and they (FA's) are almost all crappy options. A trade, maybe... but I see no FA's for position players this offseason. And Harris is going to sift through Malloy, Jung, Keith, Wenceel, etc... before looking at signing a position FA. Book it. There could be a trade from that group to get a position player with a different skillset (someone who can field). Carpenter and Rogers were rumored to be on the block at the deadline, so they could be shopped too. I am not sure who they might get in a trade until I know who seems to be available. I just expect them to be a bit more adventurous this off-season. I don't know whether they will actually complete a trade, but I think already have an idea of what these guys can do and they will not necessarily wait until they see what they do next year. Edited September 25, 2023 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Without much certainty about their futures, limitations or value, it seems to me that they have a good number of options for 2B. Keith, Wenceel, Jung, plus Kreidler/Short and others (not digging into Ibanez/Maton/Nevin levels). While it would be nice to have one of them also be able to play 3B well, and hit, it is an area I hope they explore for trades. Another young catcher for Jung (D Rushing?). One of Malloy/Carpenter should be the primary DH IMO, with the other either given limited play in the field, or shopped. This offseason has much more pitching FA talent, so if $$$ is to be spent, I would like a major spend there-Lorenzen as a floor for quality. Assuming ERod opts out, but maybe even if he doesn’t. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theroundsquare Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Is anyone concerned that the league has now figured out how to minimize Carpenter? He hasn't homered in over a month. His OPS in that time frame is below .700. His OBP is still pretty good, in the .330s, but his slugging isn't much more than that. Maybe it's just a slump, but the duration is starting to worry me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, theroundsquare said: Is anyone concerned that the league has now figured out how to minimize Carpenter? He hasn't homered in over a month. His OPS in that time frame is below .700. His OBP is still pretty good, in the .330s, but his slugging isn't much more than that. Maybe it's just a slump, but the duration is starting to worry me. I do worry a little about young players who outperform their reputations. That might be why he appeared in trade rumors around the deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 31 minutes ago, theroundsquare said: Is anyone concerned that the league has now figured out how to minimize Carpenter? He hasn't homered in over a month. His OPS in that time frame is below .700. His OBP is still pretty good, in the .330s, but his slugging isn't much more than that. Maybe it's just a slump, but the duration is starting to worry me. A little. As you point out, it's a big power slump but not a huge 'making a lot of outs' slump. So he's got an adjustment to make but it doesn't seem pitchers have figured him out to where he's consistently over matched. His walk rate has definitely fallen, which has driven his OBP down. Could be he's fallen a little into the HR swing trap. Like Magglio said - try to do too much, you might not do too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Tiger337 said: There could be a trade from that group to get a position player with a different skillset (someone who can field). Carpenter and Rogers were rumored to be on the block at the deadline, so they could be shopped too. I am not sure who they might get in a trade until I know who seems to be available. I just expect them to be a bit more adventurous this off-season. I don't know whether they will actually complete a trade, but I think already have an idea of what these guys can do and they will not necessarily wait until they see what they do next year. At this point I'd be fine trading anybody in the system provided the return was favorable. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Skubal is the one untouchable on the roster, and that Tork is also "untouchable" not because we want to keep him so badly, can't be moved because of his limitations. Even all the top guys in the system are also tradable for the right return, I think, with the possible exception of Max Clark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 1 hour ago, theroundsquare said: Is anyone concerned that the league has now figured out how to minimize Carpenter? He hasn't homered in over a month. His OPS in that time frame is below .700. His OBP is still pretty good, in the .330s, but his slugging isn't much more than that. Maybe it's just a slump, but the duration is starting to worry me. I don't know ... I never really thought of Carpenter as a linchpin for the next playoff team, although I admit to getting swept up in his performance earlier this season. Odd as this might sound, I think I'd have more actual concern if he were a high 1st round draft pick, for whom the expectation would be perennial everyday regularity and probably a few All-Star nods at some point in his career, as it is for Tork. Instead, Carpenter was a 19th-rounder who was expected to be an organizational soldier, but who happened to fix himself to enough of a degree to get a decent look-see in the bigs. Even if he were to retire right now, his 3.0 WAR renders his career the best of any 19th-round position player since Seth Brown, drafted in 2015 (4.3). Before that you've got Adam Engel 2013 (3.1), and you have to go back to the 2010 draft to see a really good career from a 19th-rounder (Adam Eaton, 18.3). They are really rare birds. So I kind of look at Kerry Carpenter as like playing with house money in a way, and if he were to flop into oblivion at this point, I would be sad for the guy and for us as fans, but I couldn't be particularly disappointed, because he's already done more than anyone could have expected him to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Tiger337 said: There could be a trade from that group to get a position player with a different skillset ... I think this is the likeliest possibility if we are bringing in a new position player from outside the Org this offseason... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted September 26, 2023 Author Share Posted September 26, 2023 15 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said: Without much certainty about their futures, limitations or value, it seems to me that they have a good number of options for 2B. Keith, Wenceel, Jung, plus Kreidler/Short and others (not digging into Ibanez/Maton/Nevin levels). While it would be nice to have one of them also be able to play 3B well, and hit, it is an area I hope they explore for trades. Another young catcher for Jung (D Rushing?). One of Malloy/Carpenter should be the primary DH IMO, with the other either given limited play in the field, or shopped. This offseason has much more pitching FA talent, so if $$$ is to be spent, I would like a major spend there-Lorenzen as a floor for quality. Assuming ERod opts out, but maybe even if he doesn’t. Yup. Deal from a strength to address a weakness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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