MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, romad1 said: These two must be on cloud 9 Never forget that's Michigan Interim Assistant Head Coach Jack Harbaugh right there. Couldn't have beat East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green without him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I am still amazed that with all the mistake our special teams made and with how subpar I thought JJ looked, we still came out the winner. That game ball from last night belongs to the defense and the defense alone. 6 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and a ton of pressure got Michigan this win and kept Alabama and Milroe down the entire game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I am still amazed that with all the mistake our special teams made and with how subpar I thought JJ looked, we still came out the winner. That game ball from last night belongs to the defense and the defense alone. 6 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and a ton of pressure got Michigan this win and kept Alabama and Milroe down the entire game. Corum scored a long TD in OT and JJ led a dramatic drive from his own 10 yrd line with the game on the line which included a 4th down conversion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 also, where was the ref on the hit out of bounds on JJ in the last drive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 My LVP for this game on offense was Donovan. That's shocking for me. He was such a weapon in 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, romad1 said: My LVP for this game on offense was Donovan. That's shocking for me. He was such a weapon in 2022. some guys grow up, fill out and lose their speed. Can only guess that is what has happened to Donovan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, romad1 said: My LVP for this game on offense was Donovan. That's shocking for me. He was such a weapon in 2022. He’s just leaving it all in the tank for the Natty how he did last year against OSU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Regents Field sports bar in Ann Arbor watching the 4th down play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley70 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: some guys grow up, fill out and lose their speed. Can only guess that is what has happened to Donovan. He lost his hands too apparently. Wouldn't be surprised if he either transfers or goes pro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Stanley70 said: He lost his hands too apparently. Wouldn't be surprised if he either transfers or goes pro. I would be surprised. He’s a late round prospect if he declares, so he would make more money with NIL by staying in college. With the short shelf life of an NFL RB, and the dependence on an offensive line, he’s better off making that money while he can. NFL teams see what we do. Where’s the production? He’s gone over 50 yards rushing once this season. I think he stays. He may be one of the only pieces that stays. If Sherrone Moore takes over as HC, while JJ, Jim, and Blake head to the NFL, Donovan would have the opportunity to become the centerpiece of the Michigan offense, for better or worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djhutch Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 12/30/2023 at 12:22 PM, MichiganCardinal said: ...Milroe is very good, but turnover prone. If Michigan plays the brand of mistake-free football that got them this far, and capitalizes on Milroe’s mistake(s), I think it will be a one-possession game either direction. Just re-reading the thread & thought this was interesting...Michigan had a lot of mistakes, especially on special teams. Did NOT capitalize on Milroe's fumble...& yet still had enough in the tank at the end to win it. This is surely a resilient bunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, djhutch said: Just re-reading the thread & thought this was interesting...Michigan had a lot of mistakes, especially on special teams. Did NOT capitalize on Milroe's fumble...& yet still had enough in the tank at the end to win it. This is surely a resilient bunch. I agree. I think it speaks to just how good they are that that game may have been a double digit win if they make their field goal, make their extra point, and don't muff the first punt. Kudos to them for winning anyway, but they should probably try to cut out those mistakes this week if they want to finish what they started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said: I would be surprised. He’s a late round prospect if he declares, so he would make more money with NIL by staying in college. With the short shelf life of an NFL RB, and the dependence on an offensive line, he’s better off making that money while he can. NFL teams see what we do. Where’s the production? He’s gone over 50 yards rushing once this season. I think he stays. He may be one of the only pieces that stays. If Sherrone Moore takes over as HC, while JJ, Jim, and Blake head to the NFL, Donovan would have the opportunity to become the centerpiece of the Michigan offense, for better or worse. how late? he's a mid round pick, just like corum. in fact, he might get drafted before corum. he'll blow up the combine. he had an off season but he has the skills (speed and hands) that make him a viable nfl running back. corum is too small and too slow for the pro game. like mike hart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: I agree. I think it speaks to just how good they are that that game may have been a double digit win if they make their field goal, make their extra point, and don't muff the first punt. Kudos to them for winning anyway, but they should probably try to cut out those mistakes this week if they want to finish what they started. I thought before the game that Michigan could win but JJ would have to have a great game and Michigan would have to be largely mistake-free. Neither happened but they still won. I'd give the defense an A+ and JJ a B and special teams an F. The win probability, in my own melodramatic mind, went something like this: - Kickoff: Alabama 55%, Michigan 45% - Muffed punt into Alabama TD: Alabama 90%, Michigan 10% - End of 1st quarter: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40% - Halftime: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40% - End of 3rd quarter: Michigan 50%, Alabama 50% - Midway through 4th quarter: Alabama 80%, Michigan 20% - After Michigan tied it 20-20: Michigan 50%, Alabama 50% - Start of OT: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40% - After Corum's OT TD: Michigan 75%, Alabama 25% - 4th and 3: Michigan 80%, Alabama 20% (less than 50% chance for Bama to convert, then I'd still favor Michigan in 2OT) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, buddha said: how late? he's a mid round pick, just like corum. in fact, he might get drafted before corum. he'll blow up the combine. he had an off season but he has the skills (speed and hands) that make him a viable nfl running back. corum is too small and too slow for the pro game. like mike hart. My go-to source for a draft big board has Corum as the 2nd rated RB and Edwards as the 10th. I checked around after reading your reply and PFF has Corum 2nd and Edwards 4th. PFN has Corum 9th and Edwards unranked, but they only ranked 10. I guess that's why they have agents. If Edwards thinks he would be a day two pick, he should declare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, buddha said: has the skills (speed and hands) Is the speed still there? He hasn't shown much this season. Could also be slow decision making I suppose but just haven't seen much burst from Edwards this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, lordstanley said: I thought before the game that Michigan could win but JJ would have to have a great game and Michigan would have to be largely mistake-free. Neither happened but they still won. I'd give the defense an A+ and JJ a B and special teams an F. The win probability, in my own melodramatic mind, went something like this: - Kickoff: Alabama 55%, Michigan 45% - Muffed punt into Alabama TD: Alabama 90%, Michigan 10% - End of 1st quarter: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40% - Halftime: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40% - End of 3rd quarter: Michigan 50%, Alabama 50% - Midway through 4th quarter: Alabama 80%, Michigan 20% - After Michigan tied it 20-20: Michigan 50%, Alabama 50% - Start of OT: Michigan 60%, Alabama 40% - After Corum's OT TD: Michigan 75%, Alabama 25% - 4th and 3: Michigan 80%, Alabama 20% (less than 50% chance for Bama to convert, then I'd still favor Michigan in 2OT) After the first three possessions, between the near-interception leading to a 3-and-out, the fantastic defensive rush nullified by the muffed punt, and the easy 35-yard run for a TD on 3rd and short, I thought for sure we were going to get schlacked. Looked just like TCU, except against a team that wasn't going to keep us in it. This is what the ESPN analytics had for probabilities at your timepoints. You were pretty close on all of them: - Kickoff: Michigan 56.9% - Muffed punt into Alabama TD: Alabama 50.6% - End of 1st quarter: Michigan 53.3% - Halftime: Michigan 61.8% - End of 3rd quarter: Michigan 55% - Midway through 4th quarter: Alabama 86.6% (Alabama maxed out at 88.8%, which came after Michigan's first play when they got the ball back with about 4 minutes to go down 7). - After Michigan tied it 20-20: Alabama 51.8% - Start of OT: Alabama 52.9% - After Corum's OT TD: Michigan 75.5% - 4th and 3: Michigan 73.4% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: My go-to source for a draft big board has Corum as the 2nd rated RB and Edwards as the 10th. I checked around after reading your reply and PFF has Corum 2nd and Edwards 4th. PFN has Corum 9th and Edwards unranked, but they only ranked 10. I guess that's why they have agents. If Edwards thinks he would be a day two pick, he should declare. those ratings mean nothing until the combine, especially for a guy like edwards. if he isnt going to run fast at the combine, then he should use michigan's nil and stay in school. it might behoove him to transfer if he isnt declaring. go to a place that's going to pass the ball more. but if he comes out and runs a 4.3 or a 4.4, then he's going before corum. you saw that speed and big play ability last year. so did nfl scouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 i suspect that if guys like edwards and kris jenkins go pro, they'll both move up draft boards quickly after the combine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, buddha said: those ratings mean nothing until the combine, especially for a guy like edwards. if he isnt going to run fast at the combine, then he should use michigan's nil and stay in school. it might behoove him to transfer if he isnt declaring. go to a place that's going to pass the ball more. but if he comes out and runs a 4.3 or a 4.4, then he's going before corum. you saw that speed and big play ability last year. so did nfl scouts. I agree. It's just a delicate balancing act for a guy like him. You're really relying on one day of performance to get scouts to overlook a season worth of stats. If he bets wrong and goes in the 5th or 6th round to a team with a terrible offensive line, he's doomed his career before it's even taken off. It's probably no guarantee that he succeeds at Michigan either if he stays next season with how much turnover the OL will experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said: I agree. It's just a delicate balancing act for a guy like him. You're really relying on one day of performance to get scouts to overlook a season worth of stats. If he bets wrong and goes in the 5th or 6th round to a team with a terrible offensive line, he's doomed his career before it's even taken off. It's probably no guarantee that he succeeds at Michigan either if he stays next season with how much turnover the OL will experience. Given the current national profile and the years of credibility that Michigan has as an O-Line school, they will get their pick of +23yr old grad students from the portal. I don't think they will have trouble keeping up a strong O-Line. Edited January 2 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 michigan's oline recruiting has been pretty solid for years too. they have a strong base of recruits with which to build upon. maybe the one thing they dont have is a premium left tackle. other than that, they've got depth in spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Given the current national profile and the years of credibility that Michigan has as an O-Line school, they will get their pick of +23yr old grad students from the portal. I don't think they will have trouble keeping up a strong O-Line. 15 minutes ago, buddha said: michigan's oline recruiting has been pretty solid for years too. they have a strong base of recruits with which to build upon. maybe the one thing they dont have is a premium left tackle. other than that, they've got depth in spades. I agree with both of these. I just mean to say it’s not a given. Many programs can speak thinking they have a revolving door of talent and realizing too late that it’s a step down… their recruiting has been good, and should only get better with this success, but they’re not at Alabama’s point of “next 5* up”. The offensive line changes is one factor in Edwards’ decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Hongbit said: I think Michigan-Texas would have surpassed it too. Michigan-Washington probably matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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