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1/5/24 10PM Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors


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18 minutes ago, buddha said:

duren shoots better than ausar already and he's one of the youngest players in the league.  he has potential to be a defensive center with midrange.  i'm going to see if he can get there before i give up on him.

not sure why people are slobbering over ausar and claiming isaiah stewart is valuable while looking to get rid of duren at the first possibility.

He really doesn't shoot better.  If you look at their shot charts the only place Duren shoots better is at the rim.  Well, bigs are supposed to do that so that isn't saying much.  3-10 feet Ausar shoots better.  10-16 feet Asuar shoots better.  And Duren has never made a shot in the 16+ category so not fair to compare that.   

FT% is often used to project shooting.  Duren shoots 63% from the line while Ausar shoots 68%.  So you can't even use that to say he is a better shooter.

Stewart has skills that are valuable in the playoffs when teams go small.  He can guard the perimeter a bit, he cant hit an open 3PT shot, so he can be played in a small ball lineup while still providing rebounding and some rim protection.  

The other reason people like Stewart is the team friendly contract.  If you tell me Duren will sign an extension for $15M per, hell yeah keep him.  But if he is creeping up over $20M a year I get worried.  And at $25M+ per year, I'm out.  That is an Andre Drummond sized disaster of a contract for Duren.

People like Ausar because he is a wing.  You can win a title without a big time C.  You can not win a title without a stud perimeter player.  

I don't think there are 5 C's in the league I would pay $25M+ a year.  Jokic, Bam, and I guess Embiid but he has had some bad playoff performances in close out games. So I might pass on him too.  AD has the skills I would pay for, but I would pass due to injuries.  I want to see more games from Chet, but he looks promising so far.  Sengun is sort of interesting but I have not watched a ton of him yet.  

 

 

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I do think Duren will get there with the mid range game.  I don't expect him to ever be a major shot blocking threat but I'm okay with that.  He's not a liability with his defense either.  

I know some people think rebounds are an archaic way to judge a basketball players usefulness but after watching the Pistons this year with and without Duren, being able to clean up the glass still has a good amount of value in my mind.  

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3 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

He really doesn't shoot better.  If you look at their shot charts the only place Duren shoots better is at the rim.  Well, bigs are supposed to do that so that isn't saying much.  3-10 feet Ausar shoots better.  10-16 feet Asuar shoots better.  And Duren has never made a shot in the 16+ category so not fair to compare that.   

FT% is often used to project shooting.  Duren shoots 63% from the line while Ausar shoots 68%.  So you can't even use that to say he is a better shooter.

Stewart has skills that are valuable in the playoffs when teams go small.  He can guard the perimeter a bit, he cant hit an open 3PT shot, so he can be played in a small ball lineup while still providing rebounding and some rim protection.  

The other reason people like Stewart is the team friendly contract.  If you tell me Duren will sign an extension for $15M per, hell yeah keep him.  But if he is creeping up over $20M a year I get worried.  And at $25M+ per year, I'm out.  That is an Andre Drummond sized disaster of a contract for Duren.

People like Ausar because he is a wing.  You can win a title without a big time C.  You can not win a title without a stud perimeter player.  

I don't think there are 5 C's in the league I would pay $25M+ a year.  Jokic, Bam, and I guess Embiid but he has had some bad playoff performances in close out games. So I might pass on him too.  AD has the skills I would pay for, but I would pass due to injuries.  I want to see more games from Chet, but he looks promising so far.  Sengun is sort of interesting but I have not watched a ton of him yet.  

 

 

It's just too early to say we should trade him before we have to pay him though.  He's played 87 games and came in as one of the youngest players in the draft.  We have two years after this year before we have to decide if he is worth paying.  I would much rather see what he becomes and then decide whether to pay him than to trade him sooner rather than later so we don't have to worry about paying him.  

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49 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

He really doesn't shoot better.  If you look at their shot charts the only place Duren shoots better is at the rim.  Well, bigs are supposed to do that so that isn't saying much.  3-10 feet Ausar shoots better.  10-16 feet Asuar shoots better.  And Duren has never made a shot in the 16+ category so not fair to compare that.   

FT% is often used to project shooting.  Duren shoots 63% from the line while Ausar shoots 68%.  So you can't even use that to say he is a better shooter.

Stewart has skills that are valuable in the playoffs when teams go small.  He can guard the perimeter a bit, he cant hit an open 3PT shot, so he can be played in a small ball lineup while still providing rebounding and some rim protection.  

The other reason people like Stewart is the team friendly contract.  If you tell me Duren will sign an extension for $15M per, hell yeah keep him.  But if he is creeping up over $20M a year I get worried.  And at $25M+ per year, I'm out.  That is an Andre Drummond sized disaster of a contract for Duren.

People like Ausar because he is a wing.  You can win a title without a big time C.  You can not win a title without a stud perimeter player.  

I don't think there are 5 C's in the league I would pay $25M+ a year.  Jokic, Bam, and I guess Embiid but he has had some bad playoff performances in close out games. So I might pass on him too.  AD has the skills I would pay for, but I would pass due to injuries.  I want to see more games from Chet, but he looks promising so far.  Sengun is sort of interesting but I have not watched a ton of him yet.  

 

 

ausar is not a stud perimeter player.  he's not even close.  he's a small step up from hamadou diallo at this point.

duren has a chance to be a rim protecting roll man.  that's a valuable piece.  if he doesnt develop, then fine.  but you need at least one playable big.  youre jumping 3 years down the road on his contract.  if he's worth $25m per then he developed into something more than andre drummond and worth keeping around.

stewart isnt quick enough to guard the perimeter and not big enough to guard bigs down low.  he gets by in the regular season but if he's traded and gets into the playoffs he'll get exposed.

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1 hour ago, Hart said:

It's just too early to say we should trade him

a lot of problems with the pistons come down to this. Players do become better shooters, and it's important to have effective coaching to that end (apparently not Williams) and important to be able to realize when a player isn't going to get there (Hayes).

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duren is shooting 70% from the line this year and ausar is at 68%.  in his last 6 games (since coming back from injury) he's 17-19.  in fairness, ausar is 7-10 in his last 6 games.

duren is 67% true shooting and ausar is 50% (!!!).

ausar is older than duren.

ausar is a better defender.  both are good rebounders.  ausar is probably a better natural rebounder but duren is much bigger and will get to more rebounds just because.

lets see if ausar gets better at shooting next year.  duren has gotten better from year one to year two.  however, duren's form is much better.  ausar has no form.  it changes every time he goes to shoot because he is a bad shooter.  monumentally bad, actually.

if the question over long term value is positional, then ausar has an advantage because he plays a more valuable position in today's nba.  if the question is "duren is going to get overpaid because he'll never be good enough to earn $25-$30m" then that's an organizational issue, not a duren issue.

if duren can develop a mid range jumper he'll be valuable.  judging only by his shooting form, i think he might be able to.  if not, he'll be clint capela.

ausar HAS to develop some shooting to be worth anything long term just because of the position he plays.  unless youre fine with tony allen as the #5 pick in the draft.  cause that's all he is now.  a poor man's tony allen.  but he's young and athletic so there's hope.  i guess.

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

a lot of problems with the pistons come down to this. Players do become better shooters, and it's important to have effective coaching to that end (apparently not Williams) and important to be able to realize when a player isn't going to get there (Hayes).

And there’s our issue as Pistons fans.  Is the right infrastructure in place to build anything beyond scant hopes of a play in game?

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