2025 MLB Thread

[chasfh]

18 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am sure there is a good reason for it.  I personally have no interest in gambling when I know the odds are not in my favor.  What interests me somewhat is the probability that Torkelson is going to hit a homerun in a game.  It means something to me that he has a 20% chance of getting a home run in a random game or that the odds are 4 to 1 against him hitting a home run.  

Except the odds are bastardized by the gambling company to keep betting even on both sides. They’re not true probabilities based on anything besides business imperatives. 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am sure there is a good reason for it.  I personally have no interest in gambling when I know the odds are not in my favor.  What interests me somewhat is the probability that Torkelson is going to hit a homerun in a game.  It means something to me that he has a 20% chance of getting a home run in a random game or that the odds are 4 to 1 against him hitting a home run.  

I don't gamble either. I've thought it was interesting to watch point spreads on football games as a reflection of better sentiment but that was about the only thing I ever paid any attention to and the 'moneyline' format doesn't tell me anything intelligible about that either.

 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, chasfh said:

Except the odds are bastardized by the gambling company to keep betting even on both sides. They’re not true probabilities based on anything besides business imperatives. 

well that is interesting. It seems inconceivable that when they post some obscure prop bet those odds can be based on money already wagered, how could there be any? Someone has to be handicapping those props as the starting point don't they?

[papalawrence]

18 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

In Bonds' case - there was NO CLEAR POLICY on steroids.  In Rose's case it was crystal clear. 

I agree. I'd have him in the hall already

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

well that is interesting. It seems inconceivable that when they post some obscure prop bet those odds can be based on money already wagered, how could there be any? Someone has to be handicapping those props as the starting point don't they?

I’m guessing they start out with odds based on some combination of recent and total history, and then apply AI to betting in progress from the jump to even the money bet on both sides. That’s how I imagine it, anyway.

[Motor City Sonics]

A lot of people think point spreads are casinos predicting scores.     That has nothing to do with it.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Except the odds are bastardized by the gambling company to keep betting even on both sides. They’re not true probabilities based on anything besides business imperatives. 

I know they are not true probabilities, but I need to translate them that way in order for them to make sense to me.  If they have Tork with a 1 out of 5 chance of getting a home run, I know what that means.  Then I can at least make a determination as to whether those are good odds.  As I watch the games and do the calculations i my head, I find that they make a lt of sense more often than not.  Perhaps, because big money betters are smart and the AI captures that?

Edited yesterday at 12:25 AM by Tiger337

[Motor City Sonics]

Video of that guy falling out of the stands in Pittsburgh.  That looked intentional.    It's very bizarre. 

[oblong]

Yeah it looks like he springboarded out of his seat. Like an ejection.  I’m not even sure how you can do that. It was a leap from a sitting position 

[monkeytargets39]

That’s the same type of fall that Putins enemies take whenever they’re near a window 

[Motor City Sonics]

I really want to know the backstory of what was going on with this fan in Pittsburgh.   Was he totally drunk?  Was he trying to do some sort of stunt?  Was it a suicide attempt?   Did he try to do a handstand on that railing?     That was so bizarre.  It almost look like something fake, but he landed on his head and he is in critical condition.  If he does recover, the chances of him having a memory of the event are pretty slim.  

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I really want to know the backstory of what was going on with this fan in Pittsburgh.   Was he totally drunk?  Was he trying to do some sort of stunt?  Was it a suicide attempt?   Did he try to do a handstand on that railing?     That was so bizarre.  It almost look like something fake, but he landed on his head and he is in critical condition.  If he does recover, the chances of him having a memory of the event are pretty slim.  

From the UTube video I saw it didn't look intentional, it looks like he got up quickly from his seat, lost his balance and tumbled over the railing. 

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

From the UTube video I saw it didn't look intentional, it looks like he got up quickly from his seat, lost his balance and tumbled over the railing. 

That was my guess too.  The original video to which I think people were referring was weird and I believe it was sped up a bit.  He clearly grabbed the railing before he fell and seemed to reach back desperately with his hand failing to grab the railing again as he was falling.  

[oblong]

that would certainly make sense if it was sped up... Jeez.   Now they are going to put up 6 foot plexiglass everywhere aren't they?

 

[Motor City Sonics]

23 minutes ago, oblong said:

that would certainly make sense if it was sped up... Jeez.   Now they are going to put up 6 foot plexiglass everywhere aren't they?

 

Yep. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

that would certainly make sense if it was sped up... Jeez.   Now they are going to put up 6 foot plexiglass everywhere aren't they?

 

Nets

[Motor City Sonics]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Nets

With only that railing there, I am surprised that more beers and purses and stuff don't get kicked onto the field (by accident).  Maybe they do...

[CMU97]

8 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I really want to know the backstory of what was going on with this fan in Pittsburgh.   Was he totally drunk?  Was he trying to do some sort of stunt?  Was it a suicide attempt?   Did he try to do a handstand on that railing?     That was so bizarre.  It almost look like something fake, but he landed on his head and he is in critical condition.  If he does recover, the chances of him having a memory of the event are pretty slim.  

A story I read implied alcohol was involved. Right before the accident, witnesses said took off his shirt and poured a beer all over himself. To me, it looked liked he first grabbed the railing and pulled himself forward as he lept from his seat. The forward momentum was enough to kind of sling shot himself over the railing. Being 20, if he was drunk or even drinking, the Pirates are going to be in a lot of trouble.  I don't think it was intentional at all, he was just excited, grabbed the railing and pulled himself up at the same time he was jumping to his feet.  I hope he survives, and can live a normal life. 

My wife brought up a point I wouldn't have thought of. About 20 years ago she witnessed a college age man trying to cross a waterfall at the top. He didn't make it. He tumbled about 50 feet hitting every rock on his way down. He lived long enough to be taken to the hospital, but not long after. She said that every person that witnessed this guys fall in Pittsburgh will carry it with them for the rest of their life, and it will affect them. From seeing the look on his face, his attempt to grab the railing, and the fall. As a witness you are paralyzed at the event and can't do anything to stop it. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, CMU97 said:

A story I read implied alcohol was involved. Right before the accident, witnesses said took off his shirt and poured a beer all over himself. To me, it looked liked he first grabbed the railing and pulled himself forward as he lept from his seat. The forward momentum was enough to kind of sling shot himself over the railing. Being 20, if he was drunk or even drinking, the Pirates are going to be in a lot of trouble.  I don't think it was intentional at all, he was just excited, grabbed the railing and pulled himself up at the same time he was jumping to his feet.  I hope he survives, and can live a normal life. 

My wife brought up a point I wouldn't have thought of. About 20 years ago she witnessed a college age man trying to cross a waterfall at the top. He didn't make it. He tumbled about 50 feet hitting every rock on his way down. He lived long enough to be taken to the hospital, but not long after. She said that every person that witnessed this guys fall in Pittsburgh will carry it with them for the rest of their life, and it will affect them. From seeing the look on his face, his attempt to grab the railing, and the fall. As a witness you are paralyzed at the event and can't do anything to stop it. 

I feel icky for even having seen it. I’m very squeamish about watching other people get injured. I can’t watch replays where an athlete wrenches a knee or twists an ankle or otherwise suffers his body contorting in an unnatural direction. And of course I can’t rewatch the Theismann play.