Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Not having heard anything Hinch has said about this, my guess would be he was trying to balance the scales between getting as much as he possibly could out of Skubal, and not completely ruining his arm in advance of the ALCS. And hey, it almost worked. In fact, he could have gone the seventh, and he could have gone the eighth, but he would have to have come out anyway, because no way he was going fifteen.

 

Mickey Lolich would have...if Billy Martin was managing

[AlaskanTigersFan]

9 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I've heard some Tiger fans who say trade him and use that money to sign other players. The problem is, the Tigers wouldn't spend that money anyway. Heck, we're still waiting for them to use all of that money that came off the books from Cabrera. I'm starting to think maybe we should keep Skubal?

I dunno..... Kyle Tucker could be worth building around..... Superstar that doesn't strike out much to put as your #3 hitter for the next 10 years sounds good. 

[Sports_Freak]

7 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I dunno..... Kyle Tucker could be worth building around..... Superstar that doesn't strike out much to put as your #3 hitter for the next 10 years sounds good. 

I've read Tucker's name brought up a few times. While I would love to have him, I don't see the Tigers signing him for the money he would demand. Whether we extend Skubal or not. But until Tucker signs with a team, there's still a possibility...however remote.

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I dunno..... Kyle Tucker could be worth building around..... Superstar that doesn't strike out much to put as your #3 hitter for the next 10 years sounds good. 

Why would he bat third?  Why not second?

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I dunno..... Kyle Tucker could be worth building around..... Superstar that doesn't strike out much to put as your #3 hitter for the next 10 years sounds good. 

I could get on board with trying to add Kyle Tucker.

But would Kyle Tucker be on board with becoming a Detroit Tiger?

And...

At 10 years, he'd be 39 his last year.

I'd like to cap an offer at 7 years.

Are we still "in the ballpark" with Tucker on that basis?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I could get on board with trying to add Kyle Tucker.

But would Kyle Tucker be on board with becoming a Detroit Tiger?

And...

At 10 years, he'd be 39 his last year.

I'd like to cap an offer at 7 years.

Are we still "in the ballpark" with Tucker on that basis?

I don’t think Tucker gets ten years given his down-ish year and missing a month with injury. Seven sounds about right. 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think Tucker gets ten years given his down-ish year and missing a month with injury. Seven sounds about right. 

I agree.  He got injured last year too.  I can see him trying for ten and then taking a Bregman-type deal where gets a chance to build up his value again.  Or maybe, he is not so confident in his health and will take 7.   

[romad1]

Listening to Kieran and Cody's podcast and they seemed to think Detroit would have first shot and a good chance to keep Torres and Flaherty because both their markets were messed up by Torres injury and Flaherty's weird season. 

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, romad1 said:

Listening to Kieran and Cody's podcast and they seemed to think Detroit would have first shot and a good chance to keep Torres and Flaherty because both their markets were messed up by Torres injury and Flaherty's weird season. 

I think it’s a done deal Flaherty opts out of his $20MM next year because at worst, he gets a QO of probably around $22MM. The question would then be whether he takes that. I say he doesn’t, because everyone can see the numbers under the hood are better than his topline numbers. He can do better in the marketplace. I’m gonna say 3/70 for him. I’m not saying he’s necessarily worth that, but pitching is getting expensive, plus he’s a horse and gives you innings.

Edited October 20 by chasfh

[Tiger337]

29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think it’s a done deal Flaherty opts out of his $20MM next year because at worst, he gets a QO of probably around $22MM. The question would then be whether he takes that. I say he doesn’t, because everyone can see the numbers under the hood are better than his topline numbers. He can do better in the marketplace. I’m gonna say 3/70 for him. I’m not saying he’s necessarily worth that, but pitching is getting expensive, plus he’s a horse and gives you innings.

His underlying numbers say he should do better, but his career has been very up and down, so I am not sure he'll get a 3-year deal.   I do agree though that he'll likely decline the QO.  

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

His underlying numbers say he should do better, but his career has been very up and down, so I am not sure he'll get a 3-year deal.   I do agree though that he'll likely decline the QO.  

I'm not going to take a guess on what Flaherty decides to do, but I will take a guess that if he opts out he's not going to find the kind of market for himself that will make the opt out worth it. I think you see it in the reaction we've had to signings here. There is more upside to signing a mid-level performer that you can trust to perform as predicted, than to signing a guy who is unpredictable even if he has upside. It's too risky/damaging to roster construction, and especially when it's a stating pitcher. Flaherty's peripherals look good because he runs hot and cold, which would be OK if it was one bad *game* in 5, but with Jack it tends to be one bad *inning* in 5, and that's hard to live with, as we have learned.

Edited October 20 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

He could gamble on the Tigers giving him a QO, if he opts out.  That would result in a $2M raise for ‘26 and take the QO off the table during the ‘27/‘27 offseason, removing any barriers to signing.  I believe if he doesn’t opt out, the QO would be in play after the ‘26 season, but I could be (and am likely) wrong.

[romad1]

6 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

His underlying numbers say he should do better, but his career has been very up and down, so I am not sure he'll get a 3-year deal.   I do agree though that he'll likely decline the QO.  

The market for Flaherty was 'off' between in the 2024 FA signing period.   I've always wondered if there was something askew about him beyond normal SP locker room eccentricity.   I was happy he wasn't the guy who gave up the winning run in Seattle last week.   

[Tigermojo]

53 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The market for Flaherty was 'off' between in the 2024 FA signing period.   I've always wondered if there was something askew about him beyond normal SP locker room eccentricity.   I was happy he wasn't the guy who gave up the winning run in Seattle last week.   

I think the speculation was because the Yankees backed out of trading for him at last year's deadline. They didn't like something in his medical reports. Might have made other teams nervous as well. He did have some back problems.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

https://fansided.com/mlb/5-teams-that-could-actually-meet-the-tigers-unreal-asking-price-for-tarik-skubal - I'm ATF. And I approve of the Phillies, Dodgers and Mets deals..... lol.

[chasfh]

40 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://fansided.com/mlb/5-teams-that-could-actually-meet-the-tigers-unreal-asking-price-for-tarik-skubal - I'm ATF. And I approve of the Phillies, Dodgers and Mets deals..... lol.

I don’t know who Christopher Kline is, but seeing from his bio that he specializes in the NBA Draft, pinch on salt applies here.

That said, I don’t see how any of these deals do not make us worse next year.

[papalawrence]

40 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://fansided.com/mlb/5-teams-that-could-actually-meet-the-tigers-unreal-asking-price-for-tarik-skubal - I'm ATF. And I approve of the Phillies, Dodgers and Mets deals..... lol.

If they're not offered a huge package, I don't see Harris biting. 

[4hzglory]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t know who Christopher Kline is, but seeing from his bio that he specializes in the NBA Draft, pinch on salt applies here.

That said, I don’t see how any of these deals do not make us worse next year.

Yeah, no thanks for me to any of those.  They definitely make the team worse next year, which if this was 2023 or even deadline 2024, it’s a different story, but where this team is now, no thank you.

[1984Echoes]

We can offset "worse in 2026" by signing Dylan Cease and Kyle Tucker.

I'm on board with trading Skubal if it's a big enough package...

AND signing Dylan Cease and Kyle Tucker.

Problem solved.

[SoCalTiger]

3 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://fansided.com/mlb/5-teams-that-could-actually-meet-the-tigers-unreal-asking-price-for-tarik-skubal - I'm ATF. And I approve of the Phillies, Dodgers and Mets deals..... lol.

Seattle offer looks promising also. They are the best offers I have seen. Solving shortstop and or third base and adding a starter makes any deal plausible. I see McGonigle at second and Keith as liability on the field apart from first base which is covered. Rainer is many years away, Sweeny a bust and Baez is aging so landing Colt Emerson  and starting pitching with one being already in the majors sounds very tempting. 

[SoCalTiger]

I will add that if the offers come in like Mr. Kline is saying then Skubal will be traded but I don't think the offers will be that good nor do I think Skubal's payday will be as high as projected. Stearns/Mets don't like paying Big Dollars for pitching, the Dodgers don't need Skubal, the Phillies payroll is maxed and they will add Schwarber and Realumto back for big $, the Yankees payroll is up there also plus the HUGE SHADE of the 2027 Labor negotiations and potential payroll cap will temper the free agency after 2026 greatly. So keeping Skubal and "playing it out" remains the most obvious outcome to me. 

[4hzglory]

20 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

We can offset "worse in 2026" by signing Dylan Cease and Kyle Tucker.

I'm on board with trading Skubal if it's a big enough package...

AND signing Dylan Cease and Kyle Tucker.

Problem solved.

I think there is close to zero chance we pursue Tucker.  Unless we trade Greene or Carpenter, our corner OF are occupied, and being a LH bat, he doesn't help those splits.  Add in the fact that I think he still gets 8-10 years when all is said and done, I don't think he's an option.  I see them making a play for Kim or another shot at Bregman (think it's doubtful) before I see them pursuing Tucker.

[casimir]

19 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think it’s a done deal Flaherty opts out of his $20MM next year because at worst, he gets a QO of probably around $22MM. The question would then be whether he takes that. I say he doesn’t, because everyone can see the numbers under the hood are better than his topline numbers. He can do better in the marketplace. I’m gonna say 3/70 for him. I’m not saying he’s necessarily worth that, but pitching is getting expensive, plus he’s a horse and gives you innings.

I looked at the horse’s innings pitched and then had to remind myself which era we’re in.  He does start around 30 games a year, so every 5th day would account for 150 games along that line of thinking.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

9 hours ago, chasfh said:

That said, I don’t see how any of these deals do not make us worse next year.

 

9 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

Yeah, no thanks for me to any of those.  They definitely make the team worse next year, which if this was 2023 or even deadline 2024, it’s a different story, but where this team is now, no thank you.

There is almost 0% scenario that any trade of Skubal makes us better for next year. Otherwise no team would be trading that talent for Skubal required to get him....... The yankee's aren't trading Judge and Garret Cole and three of thier top prospects for Skubal..........

The whole point of trading Skubal is forfitting next year, waiting for the next wave of prospects to come up (next year and the year after) and supplementing them for a run of a decade. Trading Skubal sets us up for a decade. Keeping him gives us a chance next year, then Baseball Purgatory Hell for the next 10 after that (see: Ohtani,  Angels, Los Angeles for reference). Me for one would sacrifice one season, for 10 good ones right after. But that's just my opinion. 

Imagine where the Angels would be had they moved Ohtani..... They could of gotten 5 top prospects for him. Instead they ran it for "one more year". It'll be another 5+ before they sniff the playoffs. And even then, thats a big "if". Choices.... All comes down to Choices. Angels wanted to try one more time, now they pay the price.

Does Harris learn from history? Or does he screw us for a decade by not moving him? It's up to him. But reap what you sow. I still am of the opinion, if he doesn't get traded, it's one of the worst baseball mistakes from the last 50 years. But again, that's just me. 

[4hzglory]

22 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Keeping him gives us a chance next year, then Baseball Purgatory Hell for the next 10 after that (see: Ohtani,  Angels, Los Angeles for reference). 

 

This is where we extremely disagree.  I don’t think keeping Skubal and losing him sets us up for 10 years of baseball purgatory.  Our system is much better than the Angels you keep referencing.  They also had/have their end of career Miggy.