Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[RedRamage]

16 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Probably just me being an old curmudgeon but applying "generational talent" to a pitcher that's been able to muster 190+ IP in a season twice, a career record of 57-41, never won 20 games, has had 2 great seasons and has been injury prone is a pretty loose use of the term.   Maybe save that for JV?

FWIW, career record and never winning 20 games aren't good measures of a pitcher. Too much of a pitchers W/L record depends on the offense for me to judge a pitcher this way.

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Probably just me being an old curmudgeon but applying "generational talent" to a pitcher that's been able to muster 190+ IP in a season twice, a career record of 57-41, never won 20 games, has had 2 great seasons and has been injury prone is a pretty loose use of the term.   Maybe save that for JV?

I wouldn't use pitcher wins to determine it, but I agree he doesn't have enough great years to be called a "generational talent".  His peak talent is fantastic, but he's not Randy Johhnson or Greg Maddox or even Justin Verlander.  

[NorthWoods]

9 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

FWIW, career record and never winning 20 games aren't good measures of a pitcher. Too much of a pitchers W/L record depends on the offense for me to judge a pitcher this way.

I know and I questioned including them but they are the metrics that have been used for decades so I'm not willing to completely discard nor disregard them.    Innings pitched and availability are important and he's not been very consistent with those.  I like Skubal but think people are too quick with the hyperbole at times.   Honestly I hold my breath each time he pitches because I'm petrified of his value going to essentially zero if he blows his elbow out again.   One of the major reasons I think dealing him sooner rather than later is the smart move.

 

Edited June 30 by NorthWoods

[Tiger337]

Just now, NorthWoods said:

I know and I questioned including them but they are the metrics that have been used for decades so I'm not willing to completely discord nor disregard them.    Innings pitched and availability are important and he's not been very consistent with those.  I like Skubal but think people are too quick with the hyperbole at times.   Honestly I hold my breath each time he pitches because I'm petrified of his value going to essentially zero if he blows his elbow out again.   One of the major reasons I think dealing him sooner rather than later is the smart move.

 

You can't compare across decades, but IP is probably more important than it's ever been.  With so many 5-6 inning starts and so many injuries. someone who can consistently give you high innings pitched totals is really valuable.  I have argued that IP should now be considered as one of the pitching triple crown stats.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

I'm not sure which is worse, the way he constructed the bullpen, 

You said before the season that you loved their bullpen.  

[LongLiveMaroth]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

I'm not sure which is worse, the way he constructed the bullpen, the money wasted on injured/ineffective starting pitchers or his inability to bring in much needed offensive help. A combination of all 3, I guess? I could see him getting a pass for this season because of all the injuries and the fact his draft picks aren't on the roster yet. Bit it also wouldn't surprise me if he were to be fired. There are several organizations that aren't very patient, especially with a bloated payroll.

I can't tell if this is a joke or not? No way does Harris get let go. That bloated payroll drops off pretty heavily after this year. 

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

You said before the season that you loved their bullpen.  

TBH, I will give Harris a little slack on JV because I can imagine at least some of the pressure if not at least positive approval, for that move came from 2211 Woodward Ave. If JV and Jansen were both 100% Harris driving the bus, I'd find that disappointing.

Edited June 30 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

TBH, I will give Harris a little slack on JV because I can imagine at least some of the pressure if not at least positive approval, for that move came from 2211 Woodward Ave. If JV and Jansen were both 100% Harris driving the bus, I'd find that disappointing.

I'd be surprised to learn that Scott Harris was the one who wanted to sign Verlander and Chris Ilitch was the one who had to be talked into it.

[diaspora04]

15 hours ago, chasfh said:

Fun fact: Casey Mize is a former #1 overall pick.

Broken the year before the draft, alas.  He does seem to have finally recovered.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I can't tell if this is a joke or not? No way does Harris get let go. That bloated payroll drops off pretty heavily after this year. 

True statement: if Ilitch were to fire Harris this year while still in the middle of the post-Avila-disaster rebuild—yet still having led the team to back-to-back (premature) playoff appearances just two years after taking the helm—because the team that's supposed to be around .500 based on runs scored/prevented ran into a rash of injuries and a string of bad luck, then I would seriously start to question my commitment to following this team, because this would confirm for me the Detroit Tigers to be an organization of chaos and confusion, rather than order and coherence. YMMV.

[CMRivdogs]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I'd be surprised to learn that Scott Harris was the one who wanted to sign Verlander and Chris Ilitch was the one who had to be talked into it.

Did Chris ask about Verlander when Harris told him about the Valdez signing

[tiger2022]

4 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

Moot argument.   I've heard in the best of circles that drafting McGoinigle was nothing but sheer luck.

A 2nd round draft pick does involve a lot of luck.  If Harris is some genius who knew McGonigle was going to be this good he would have drafted him in the 1st round.  

Anything past the first few picks are a crap shoot yet keep telling yourself that Harris just knew while the 29 other GMs were clueless.

[4hzglory]

Just now, tiger2022 said:

A 2nd round draft pick does involve a lot of luck.  If Harris is some genius who knew McGonigle was going to be this good he would have drafted him in the 1st round.  

Anything past the first few picks are a crap shoot yet keep telling yourself that Harris just knew while the 29 other GMs were clueless.

He did draft him between the first and 2nd.  He took a chance because he knew what it would take to sign McGonigle and that if no one in the first 15ish picks drafted him, he would likely be available.   Most expected McGonigle to be light hitting and not develop the power/exit velocities he has consistently.

 

IOW, they made it clear they wanted McGonigle, knew they didn’t need to draft him at 3, but had a plan to get him, passing on Langford to make it happen.  He/his scouting team does get complete credit for that.

[tiger2022]

4 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

Probably just me being an old curmudgeon but applying "generational talent" to a pitcher that's been able to muster 190+ IP in a season twice, a career record of 57-41, never won 20 games, has had 2 great seasons and has been injury prone is a pretty loose use of the term.   Maybe save that for JV?

That's because you are still thinking in 1970s terms.  Like it or not, pitchers do what are asked of them and that is to go 6 innings.  When they are in the minors they are conditioned to throw 90 pitches, so you're mad because Skubal didn't say, screw you organization and coaches...I'm going to pitch 250 innings and there's nothing you can do to stop me. 

That's why teams have 8 or 9 relief pitchers on the roster.

You can say the same thing about guys from the last 40 years...they sure couldn't put in the innings like Old Hoss Radbourn or Pud Galvin.  JV couldn't hold a torch to those guys.

[tiger2022]

4 hours ago, RedRamage said:

FWIW, career record and never winning 20 games aren't good measures of a pitcher. Too much of a pitchers W/L record depends on the offense for me to judge a pitcher this way.

Damn Jacob Degrom!  Couldn't even win 20 games ever; in fact, could only win 15 one time.

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

That's because you are still thinking in 1970s terms.  Like it or not, pitchers do what are asked of them and that is to go 6 innings.  When they are in the minors they are conditioned to throw 90 pitches, so you're mad because Skubal didn't say, screw you organization and coaches...I'm going to pitch 250 innings and there's nothing you can do to stop me. 

That's why teams have 8 or 9 relief pitchers on the roster.

You can say the same thing about guys from the last 40 years...they sure couldn't put in the innings like Old Hoss Radbourn or Pud Galvin.  JV couldn't hold a torch to those guys.

It's different game and the guy who pitches 180 or less innings in a season doesn't have the value or impact of the guys that pitched >250. The starting role is devalued by the modern game. It's not that starter wins never mattered, when starters finished games it was a perfect good measure. But last week is the prime example of the difference. 30+ years ago a pitcher throwing a shutout at 6 IP was very likely able to finish that game so your bullpen risk was small. We just lost a couple of 6 IP starter shut-outs in a single week. The value of Montero or Flaherty throwing 6 shut-out is not the same as a Lolich or even an early career Verlander throwing 9. 

[Sports_Freak]

43 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's different game and the guy who pitches 180 or less innings in a season doesn't have the value or impact of the guys that pitched >250. The starting role is devalued by the modern game. It's not that starter wins never mattered, when starters finished games it was a perfect good measure. But last week is the prime example of the difference. 30+ years ago a pitcher throwing a shutout at 6 IP was very likely able to finish that game so your bullpen risk was small. We just lost a couple of 6 IP starter shut-outs in a single week. The value of Montero or Flaherty throwing 6 shut-out is not the same as a Lolich or even an early career Verlander throwing 9. 

People laugh when I said start the bullpen for the 1st 3 innings. It sounds stupid, I know. But it does 2 things...it let's the team know how many runs they'll need. And it gives them more innings to get those runs.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

He did draft him between the first and 2nd.  He took a chance because he knew what it would take to sign McGonigle and that if no one in the first 15ish picks drafted him, he would likely be available.   Most expected McGonigle to be light hitting and not develop the power/exit velocities he has consistently.

 

IOW, they made it clear they wanted McGonigle, knew they didn’t need to draft him at 3, but had a plan to get him, passing on Langford to make it happen.  He/his scouting team does get complete credit for that.

Agreed. Its what Harris seems to be good at. Excellent scouting, leading to excellent picks. I cant wait to see what he does next week for so. I think July 11th.

He's also pretty good at finding talent on the waiver wire. Outman seems like a heads up player, I love his defense. He may be here a while. Holton was another waiver wire win.

But...the major weakness I see with Harris is his inability to make meaningful trades. Just the total opposite of DD. You collect prospects to use some of them in trades to help the big league club. Harris doesn't make many trades.

[NorthWoods]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

That's because you are still thinking in 1970s terms.  Like it or not, pitchers do what are asked of them and that is to go 6 innings.  When they are in the minors they are conditioned to throw 90 pitches, so you're mad because Skubal didn't say, screw you organization and coaches...I'm going to pitch 250 innings and there's nothing you can do to stop me. 

That's why teams have 8 or 9 relief pitchers on the roster.

You can say the same thing about guys from the last 40 years...they sure couldn't put in the innings like Old Hoss Radbourn or Pud Galvin.  JV couldn't hold a torch to those guys.

I knew as I wrote it that people on here would seize on the wins statement.  I'm well aware of advanced metrics and respect them but there is still a value to pitching innings and recording wins.

It wasn't what fantasy is today but from following stats by box scores in TSN in the 60/70s to running/playing a form of fantasy baseball on Compuserve in 1981. I was buying Bill James baseball abstracts when sales were still in the 100s, I lived to see the next one come out. I've been a stathead before some here were a twinkle in somone's eye so I don't need to be lectured on how out of touch I am.

I stand by my point that Mr Skubal has far to go to be a "generational talent", at this point he's a very dominating pitcher for a short term and so prone to injury that building a team around him verging on foolhardy.   That's the reason I've been a staunch advocate of trading him for a year now, I don't trust his wing.  

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

People laugh when I said start the bullpen for the 1st 3 innings. It sounds stupid, I know. But it does 2 things...it let's the team know how many runs they'll need. And it gives them more innings to get those runs.

Baseball is the most hidebound of all sports. If I were a manager this is exactly what I would do all the time.

[NorthWoods]

I guess I should have checked Skubal similarity scores on baseball reference 1st....I mean who can argue against the "generational talent" thing with this cavalcade of Hall of Famers surrounding him?

 

[chasfh]

Sounds as though we’re already talking ourselves into being totally okay with it if/when Skubal leaves. 😁

[NorthWoods]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Sounds as though we’re already talking ourselves into being totally okay with it if/when Skubal leaves. 😁

Depending on the return I am OK with it.  2-3 OF prospects and a flier on an arm.

[monkeytargets39]

Something else no one is really talking about is how likely it is that Skubal is going to probably trend down based off of his windup mechanics and moving pieces.  That high leg kick probably won’t age well with how big he is.  

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

I knew as I wrote it that people on here would seize on the wins statement.  I'm well aware of advanced metrics and respect them but there is still a value to pitching innings and recording wins.

It wasn't what fantasy is today but from following stats by box scores in TSN in the 60/70s to running/playing a form of fantasy baseball on Compuserve in 1981. I was buying Bill James baseball abstracts when sales were still in the 100s, I lived to see the next one come out. I've been a stathead before some here were a twinkle in somone's eye so I don't need to be lectured on how out of touch I am.

 

Don't listen to us.  Aaron Ashby fully agrees with you on the value of the wins statistic.  

 

Seriously, You are one the best new posters here.  I would give you the MTF Rookie of The Year award.