2025 Detroit Tigers Magic Number Thread

[casimir]

On 9/24/2025 at 8:01 AM, oblong said:

if the Tigers end up with a playoff spot... do they even celebrate?  I bet not.

[Toddwert]

12 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

It doesn't look like the Astros want to make the playoffs either.  The Tigers will probably back into the playoffs and get to play Cleveland again.

nothing like dragging a dead Tiger into the playoffs

[chasfh]

Finally! Some positive movement! How long has it been?!

Tigers beat the Guardians tonight, 4-2, and so the magic number drops to:

[lordstanley]

The Tigers are a game behind Boston and would win the tiebreaker, tied with Cleveland and would lose the tiebreaker, and a game ahead of Houston and would win the tiebreaker. 

Possible wildcard round opponents are Cleveland (home or on the road), NY Yankees (on the road), Toronto (on the road), Boston (home), or Houston (home). 

[GalagaGuy]

Skubal is currently penciled in to start Sunday.  Sure would be nice if he wasn't needed.  

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

The Tigers are a game behind Boston and would win the tiebreaker, tied with Cleveland and would lose the tiebreaker, and a game ahead of Houston and would win the tiebreaker. 

Possible wildcard round opponents are Cleveland (home or on the road), NY Yankees (on the road), Toronto (on the road), Boston (home), or Houston (home). 

Shades of 1967...but with more winners.  

[papalawrence]

10 hours ago, lordstanley said:

The Tigers are a game behind Boston and would win the tiebreaker, tied with Cleveland and would lose the tiebreaker, and a game ahead of Houston and would win the tiebreaker. 

Possible wildcard round opponents are Cleveland (home or on the road), NY Yankees (on the road), Toronto (on the road), Boston (home), or Houston (home). 

I was just looking at that. If the Tigers take 2 of 3 from Boston they have a 2nd WC spot and play either NYY or Toronto. I'd prefer they play Cleveland. Clev won't stay hot forever. And Det won't stay cold forever. There is a Sinatra song in that somewhere.....

 

[roarintiger1]

28 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

I was just looking at that. If the Tigers take 2 of 3 from Boston they have a 2nd WC spot and play either NYY or Toronto. I'd prefer they play Cleveland. Clev won't stay hot forever. And Det won't stay cold forever. There is a Sinatra song in that somewhere.....

 

or a HeeHaw song..................

[Edman85]

12 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

Skubal is currently penciled in to start Sunday.  Sure would be nice if he wasn't needed.  

If the wild card is clinched but the division is in play, what would people do here?

I say save Skubal.

[SoCalTiger]

18 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

If the wild card is clinched but the division is in play, what would people do here?

I say save Skubal.

Tough Call but I agree since winning on Sunday might not clinch anyway and either way a 3 game series is imminent .

[papalawrence]

Lolich, Coleman and Fryman. Save Skubal for game 1 of ALDS

[Archie]

3 hours ago, papalawrence said:

I was just looking at that. If the Tigers take 2 of 3 from Boston they have a 2nd WC spot and play either NYY or Toronto. I'd prefer they play Cleveland. Clev won't stay hot forever. And Det won't stay cold forever. There is a Sinatra song in that somewhere.....

 

Detroit has been cold since before the AS break except for a couple weeks.  I can't see much of a turnaround until next season.  I hope I am wrong.

[Archie]

26 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Tough Call but I agree since winning on Sunday might not clinch anyway and either way a 3 game series is imminent .

Take Cobb off IL and give him the game so they can get $20 worth out of his $15M contract.

[Tiger337]

55 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

If the wild card is clinched but the division is in play, what would people do here?

I say save Skubal.

Skubal never does anything when it counts, so it doesn't matter either way!

[Tigermojo]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Skubal never does anything when it counts, so it doesn't matter either way!

 

[oblong]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

If the wild card is clinched but the division is in play, what would people do here?

I say save Skubal.

It could mean 3 games at home vs 3 on the road.... I'm not sure I agree with the sentiment to save him for the ALDS.

Not a hill I'd die on though.

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, papalawrence said:

I was just looking at that. If the Tigers take 2 of 3 from Boston they have a 2nd WC spot and play either NYY or Toronto. I'd prefer they play Cleveland. Clev won't stay hot forever. And Det won't stay cold forever. There is a Sinatra song in that somewhere.....

 

So our only hope to have a home wild card round is to overtake Cleveland to win our division. We can't catch the #1 wildcard team. So we need to win and hope Texas can beat Cleveland. Texas is eliminated and has only pride to play for.

[Edman85]

3 minutes ago, oblong said:

It could mean 3 games at home vs 3 on the road.... I'm not sure I agree with the sentiment to save him for the ALDS.

Not a hill I'd die on though.

It looks like home field advantage is worth a 3% bump in win probability per game. So you are increasing your chance of winning those games by that amount if you even win, but decreasing it by going with Skubal over bullpen day in one of the three games.

I think the math for winning says save Skubal. The math for revenue says try to win the division.

[Sports_Freak]

8 minutes ago, oblong said:

It could mean 3 games at home vs 3 on the road.... I'm not sure I agree with the sentiment to save him for the ALDS.

Not a hill I'd die on though.

I think they mean to save Skubal for the first game of the wildcard round.

[lordstanley]

I'd save Skubal if the wildcard is clinched but the division is in play. Because it's not like Sunday would be a winner take all for the division. If the Tigers need to gain a game on Cleveland, they could pitch Skubal and win and a Cleveland win would make it meaningless anyways. If the Tigers were a game up on Cleveland, they could rest Skubal and lose and a Cleveland loss would give them the division anyways. Monday's game by contrast would be directly within the control of the Tigers.

[oblong]

32 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It looks like home field advantage is worth a 3% bump in win probability per game. So you are increasing your chance of winning those games by that amount if you even win, but decreasing it by going with Skubal over bullpen day in one of the three games.

I think the math for winning says save Skubal. The math for revenue says try to win the division.

and selfishly the math for me to go to more playoff games.  But there's also the math in saving money.  And a win in the WC series means I'll get at least one ALDS game.  So yeah, count me in now on the saving him.  

When I bought these tickets last Tuesday, before the 0-6 homestand, I adamantly dismissed the WC round as a possiblity when talking with someone else about the cost breakdown per round.

 

[oblong]

35 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I think they mean to save Skubal for the first game of the wildcard round.

yeah that's what I meant.  I can't get used to these new terms.

[Sports_Freak]

3 minutes ago, oblong said:

yeah that's what I meant.  I can't get used to these new terms.

Well, if we use him in Boston, he'll be really to go after we win the WC round. World Series or bust...😅😅

[Tigermojo]

Save Skubal but I am not a 4D chess master.

[lordstanley]

I would like for the Tigers' decision to be driven by whatever increases my chances of seeing them play in person. Since that would be Seattle in the ALDS, if Seattle stays where they are as #2 seed then do whatever you can for the Tigers to be the #3 seed. If Seattle slips past NY and Toronto for the #1 seed, then the Tigers winning the wildcard round as the #6 seed would suit me best. Just so they know.