9/1/25 1:10PM Mets @ Tigers

[GalagaGuy]

Morton has a pretty good fastball, why not give Soto some high heat and hope he chases it?  Obviously you don't want to mess up and put one down the middle, but that curve ball that didn't curve was basically a batting practice pitch.   

[gehringer_2]

The best pitch to hit is always the one you were looking for.

The long time theory in baseball is that even if you know the hitter may be sitting dead red, it's still harder to barrel up velo, so when you are down to just hope, throw the fastball. And if you are Will Vest or esp Aroldis Chapman, that probably still holds. But I don't know how much that holds anymore for a guy Morton with a relatively 'hittable' FB in a league where the hitters have adjusted to handling 100. If your fastball is of the hittable variety, you either need to locate it (And Morton was having trouble commanding it) or throw off-speed, and in either case if you leave the pitch over the plate you may end up in trouble. So I won't argue too much with what he decided to throw.

The bigger problem is we have three starters that you can't trust past three innings and a bullpen that is isn't up to that level of support. When he issues his 4th walk in as many innings - in a perfect world you don't even want Morton to face the heart of the order again even if it is only the 4th inning. Maybe if he has Hurter, Eglert, Holton, Brieske lined up like he did last season he goes and gets him anyway, but how can you want to do that with this BP?

It's frustrating but unless some of these pitchers raise their game it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Edited Monday at 11:20 PM by gehringer_2

[casimir]

6 hours ago, holygoat said:

No matter what happens, this is Morton's last batter.

 

6 hours ago, holygoat said:

And that'll do it. Game over.

Come on, you couldn't have gone with "Even though Morton will strike out Soto to end the inning, his day will be done."?

[holygoat]

4 hours ago, casimir said:

 

Come on, you couldn't have gone with "Even though Morton will strike out Soto to end the inning, his day will be done."?

I could've, but my confidence was low.

[tiger2022]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

The bigger problem is we have three starters that you can't trust past three innings and a bullpen that is isn't up to that level of support. 

Morton, Mize, Flaherty, Paddack.   Which 3 of these are you refering to?  Because I count 4 here .

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

One of things I have finally begun to understand about bullpens is that in the modern game, managers don't really decide who they are going to use out of the bullpen, GMs do, because you have to use everyone - there are too many BP innings needed to hide anyone or just save them for mop up. You just don't have the spots with starters' innings constantly falling. So if a guy in on the roster, he's going to pitch - and you are going to take your lumps if he isn't any good.

Do you seriously believe that Hinch is being forced by Harris to use only certain relievers in certain spots against his will? That they are not on the same page?

[Archie]

4 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

Morton, Mize, Flaherty, Paddack.   Which 3 of these are you refering to?  Because I count 4 here .

Flaherty can be good for four or maybe five innings.  Hinch wants to push him for more and that's when it all goes bad.  Morton gets a good game in sometimes but can't be counted on as a regular threat.  Paddack is kind of like Morton but his good games are much farther apart.  Mize started out the year pretty good but is now a great BP pitcher.  With a staff like this a team isn't going far in post season.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Archie said:

Flaherty can be good for four or maybe five innings.  Hinch wants to push him for more and that's when it all goes bad.  Morton gets a good game in sometimes but can't be counted on as a regular threat.  Paddack is kind of like Morton but his good games are much farther apart.  Mize started out the year pretty good but is now a great BP pitcher.  With a staff like this a team isn't going far in post season.

They made it through one round last year and could have made it two rounds if Skubal was sharp in game five versus the Indians.  The playoffs are getting to be more like bullpen games every year.  The bigger problem might be their bullpen which was better last year.  

[Archie]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

 ...The playoffs are getting to be more like bullpen games every year.  

Unfortunately the pen isn't performing like they did last year.  Still time to turn it around but I think the post season goes about like it did last year.  They will make it a round or two unless some of the pitchers on the IL get back and surprise us.

[papalawrence]

Last year Holton, Hurter and Brieske could go multiple innings and work hi leverage situations, starting with the August run. Their bullpen was a true strength. 

[kdog]

We need to watch other teams. The tigers are about as flawed as every other good team. They need to keep their stars healthy and hope they get some luck.

Edited Tuesday at 04:19 PM by kdog

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Do you seriously believe that Hinch is being forced by Harris to use only certain relievers in certain spots against his will? That they are not on the same page?

No, no, I don't mean Harris is calling in game shots, what I mean is that Hinch has no choice but to use everyone he has. He needs the innings from all those guys, and in that sense, it's Harris' job, not Hinch's, to make sure the guy on the roster are up to the task. IOW, don't 'blame' Hinch for using Sommers, that's who Harris put in that spot for Hinch to use. My arg is that you can't expect a manager to be able to 'hide' guys in the modern pitching game, and particularly given the state of the Tiger starting pitching. Harris did what he was able to bring in more arms at the deadline, but if that wasn't enough, that isn't Hinch's fault. I'm actually just defending Hinch here.

Edited Tuesday at 05:01 PM by gehringer_2

[tiger2022]

The other thing is there really isn't anything a GM can do about the roster at this point.  There aren't all star pitcher sitting on the couch watching games and eating cheeses waiting for a phone call.

Help from the minors?  Probably not a whole lot.

[alex]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

We need to watch other teams. The tigers are about as flawed as every other good team. They need to keep their stars healthy and hope they get some luck.

Yes, an objective observation is soooo often lost. All "Good" teams have flaws. They lose games. They could have done this and should have done that, lol, during the course. Just follow ANY team for 2-3 months. 

Maybe better yet, count to 67 slowly and if you think that is a lot of games to lose in a year - well that team is also winning 95 and that is "considered" quite good 😉

Edited Tuesday at 05:49 PM by alex

[tiger2022]

The bullpen was the only reason they nearly made it to the ALCS last season.

They could start Skubal, throw the other starters in the bullpen and have 3 bullpen days.  Paddack might be okay of you only use him for an inning, Flaherty for 2 or 3, and Morton can go multiple.  

Mize...never thought much of him.  He's okay as a back end starter during the regular season, but I don't trust him in the playoffs.  Picked #1 with a below average fastball who relied on a trick pitch to get college guys out.  

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

No, no, I don't mean Harris is calling in game shots, what I mean is that Hinch has no choice but to use everyone he has. He needs the innings from all those guys, and in that sense, it's Harris' job, not Hinch's, to make sure the guy on the roster are up to the task. IOW, don't 'blame' Hinch for using Sommers, that's who Harris put in that spot for Hinch to use. My arg is that you can't expect a manager to be able to 'hide' guys in the modern pitching game, and particularly given the state of the Tiger starting pitching. Harris did what he was able to bring in more arms at the deadline, but if that wasn't enough, that isn't Hinch's fault. I'm actually just defending Hinch here.

I know how people here like to think Harris and Hinch butt heads, as I guess they imagine all GMs and manager do. maybe you think so, too, and maybe you don't. But I happen to think they are in lockstep as to who comes onto the team and how they get used. It would not surprise me if Hinch gets veto power over players Harris suggests they might bring onto the team. I think they make a potent combination and we will rue the day one or the other or both of them leave.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

The bullpen was the only reason they nearly made it to the ALCS last season.

They could start Skubal, throw the other starters in the bullpen and have 3 bullpen days.  Paddack might be okay of you only use him for an inning, Flaherty for 2 or 3, and Morton can go multiple.  

Mize...never thought much of him.  He's okay as a back end starter during the regular season, but I don't trust him in the playoffs.  Picked #1 with a below average fastball who relied on a trick pitch to get college guys out.  

TBF, Mize was the consensus 1/1 pick of that draft. None of the other players who may have been briefly considered have had much better careers, and the best careers from that draft so far are Nico Hoerner (#18 overall), Cal Raleigh (3rd round), Jeremy Pena (3rd), Steven Kwan (5th), and Jarren Duran (7th). Spencer Schwellenbach was a 34th rounder that draft, for cry eye. You just never know how someone is going to develop vis a vis their own ceiling and how they fit in the system they end up with.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

It would not surprise me if Hinch gets veto power over players Harris suggests they might bring onto the team

this may certainly be true, but in the larger view, he still can still only ask to call up someone who is there to call. The quality and depth of a roster is still primarily the purview of the GM/POBO. A mananger can offer his input, they can/should work as a team/on the same page, but a manager has too much immediate stuff on his plate to have more than incidental responsibility for assembling the 40 he has to work with.

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

Mize...never thought much of him.  He's okay as a back end starter during the regular season, but I don't trust him in the playoffs.  Picked #1 with a below average fastball who relied on a trick pitch to get college guys out.  

there is some truth to this. You can talk about breaking stuff all you want but in the Majors it all has to play off your FB because major league hitters can adjust to any breaking ball they see too much and won't swing at that many pitches out of the zone. If you recall, Brady Singer was actually the golden boy the year before that draft, but his velo sort of fell off a cliff and that moved Mize to the head of the pitching class. But the thing is, Chasf is 100% right, Mize may be subpar for what you hope for from a 1/1, but there was still no apparent alternative that was a better choice. The only guys from that draft that ended up more valuable were black swans. 

And I think Casey is still even money to have 15WAR career.

[tiger2022]

Alec Bohm 2018 would have been the guy I would have selected.  His size and power potential seemed better than a guy with average to below average velocity.  Bohm is a solid guy but hasn't lived up to his potential either. 

Turang and Pena are on nice trajectories from that draft.

[casimir]

On 9/2/2025 at 1:38 AM, holygoat said:

I could've, but my confidence was low.

But you're good enough.  You're smart enough.  And I'm sure we can find somebody that likes you.

[Klondike]

14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

there is some truth to this. You can talk about breaking stuff all you want but in the Majors it all has to play off your FB because major league hitters can adjust to any breaking ball they see too much and won't swing at that many pitches out of the zone. If you recall, Brady Singer was actually the golden boy the year before that draft, but his velo sort of fell off a cliff and that moved Mize to the head of the pitching class. But the thing is, Chasf is 100% right, Mize may be subpar for what you hope for from a 1/1, but there was still no apparent alternative that was a better choice. The only guys from that draft that ended up more valuable were black swans. 

And I think Casey is still even money to have 15WAR career.

he had excellent control. But you don't take the #1 draft pick unless he has Verlander potential. Versus high school and college kids Mize was unbelievable 

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, Klondike said:

he had excellent control. But you don't take the #1 draft pick unless he has Verlander potential. Versus high school and college kids Mize was unbelievable 

the difference was that he got lots of swing and miss from those hitters on splits out of the zone. When he first got to the majors on call up big league hitters didn't swing at those pitches and his walk rate suddenly was over 4. He came back the next season with a 50% reduction in his splitter use and a new slider.  I think maybe his strike throwing in college was easy to overestimate because of how much swing and miss he got on those pitches out of the zone. Over time Casey has reworked the split to command it better, keep it in the zone when he wants to, and his splitter usage has increased again while maintaining a reasonable walk rate.

But Casey's other problem when he came up was that while the velo was good, his fast ball was too hittable. Not enough movement by major league standards and he has had to rework that also. He's worked on improving his 4 seam FB and it's usage had been trending up. He's also picked up a little more velo on the sinkers he does throw (result of the surgeries maybe).

I wonder how much pitch F/X data was available on Mize when he was drafted. The out of zone strikes and modest life in his FB would have been there to see in the data if there had been data.

So he's already done a lot of re-invention in his career, and I give him credit for that.

Edited Wednesday at 01:56 PM by gehringer_2

[holygoat]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

But you're good enough.  You're smart enough.  And I'm sure we can find somebody that likes you.

You've clearly never met me.