2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[monkeytargets39]

20 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

And I don't think Lee would make the team to sit on the bench. Too many 2nd base prospects?

If he’s good enough to make the team over other players and contribute positively, they’d find a position for him.

Edited October 20 by monkeytargets39

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

According to AI: "On average, a Major League Baseball team turns over approximately 60–70% of its 26-man roster over two years. The typical annual roster turnover rate is between 30% and 40%, with most of the change happening during the offseason." 

AI is full of **** sometimes, but I think the Tigers roster will turn over by at least 50% by 2027.  

And this is not a dig at our new friend here—by the way, welcome aboard, @This is the year—but nearly everyone who puts together a projected roster for the following season invariably makes it up as being 90% to 100% whoever’s in the system today. It’s nearly impossible to imagine all the new players the front office might pick up over the winter. The 2025 opening day roster contained five new players.

[Sports_Freak]

43 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And this is not a dig at our new friend here—by the way, welcome aboard, @This is the year—but nearly everyone who puts together a projected roster for the following season invariably makes it up as being 90% to 100% whoever’s in the system today. It’s nearly impossible to imagine all the new players the front office might pick up over the winter. The 2025 opening day roster contained five new players.

And just going by the final roster isn't really accurate since the Tigers used many more than 26 players this year. I don't know the final number but I would bet it was well over 40 players.

 

[Tenacious D]

I have to believe Colt is headed for 3B, barring a Bregman signing.  All of our prospects are 2B—Lee, McGonigle and Anderson.

[TigerNation]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I have to believe Colt is headed for 3B, barring a Bregman signing.  All of our prospects are 2B—Lee, McGonigle and Anderson.

McGonigle has been playing some 3b in the Fall League. So he may get a shot there too, as they try to find as many fits as they can for all the 2B prospects.

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

McGonigle has been playing some 3b in the Fall League. So he may get a shot there too, as they try to find as many fits as they can for all the 2B prospects.

Yup - no lack of unknowns on next season's IF. Javy will 33 next season, so what is left of his bat could fall the rest of the way off the cliff at any point, Torres may or may not return. Any one or two of short, 2nd or 3rd could be open.

[Edman85]

There is something like 20% turnover in a given month in-season, let alone over multiple seasons. Beyond that, just rattling over a fixed lineup just ignores the trends in baseball roster management these days, let alone how Hinch has managed.

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I have to believe Colt is headed for 3B, barring a Bregman signing.  All of our prospects are 2B—Lee, McGonigle and Anderson.

Anderson has been picking up some reps at third and he’s been pretty good at it.

[chasfh]

18 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Touché. The Tigers started 2024 with the whole team in a hitting slump. Tork and Meadows finally demoted and then we were good the rest of the season all the way into September of '25. And then we all slumped again. I hope there's talk of improving our hitting coaches? The hitters approach was pretty pathetic.

I must hypothesize again that there is a talent issue here, specifically Avila players vs Harris players, vs it being a coaching issue.

You may remember this post of mine:

I which I showed that when it came to controlling the zone this season, the Harris players in aggregate were among the best in baseball, and the Avila players were among the worst.

But you may be surprised to learn that the end-of-season collapse was not the same for each group, and if we isolate September, we see there was almost no change at all for the Harris players, while it was the Avila players that ended up tripping all over themselves:

Full Season	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	6093	3997	2096
BB% rate	8.4%	7.4%	10.3%
K% rate	23.9%	25.5%	20.8%
wOBA	.317	.318	.315
wRC+	103	103	101
Sept Only	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	911	632	279
BB% rate	9.0%	7.8%	11.8%
K% rate	26.2%	28.0%	22.2%
wOBA	.294	.286	.313
wRC+	87	82	100

So I gotta continue to believe that the hitting coaching is not the issue, and that the more Harris turns over the roster to be more players he acquires, the better overall results at the plate we will see.

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I must hypothesize again that there is a talent issue here, specifically Avila players vs Harris players, vs it being a coaching issue.

You may remember this post of mine:

I which I showed that when it came to controlling the zone this season, the Harris players in aggregate were among the best in baseball, and the Avila players were among the worst.

But you may be surprised to learn that the end-of-season collapse was not the same for each group, and if we isolate September, we see there was almost no change at all for the Harris players, while it was the Avila players that ended up tripping all over themselves:

Full Season	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	6093	3997	2096
BB% rate	8.4%	7.4%	10.3%
K% rate	23.9%	25.5%	20.8%
wOBA	.317	.318	.315
wRC+	103	103	101
Sept Only	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	911	632	279
BB% rate	9.0%	7.8%	11.8%
K% rate	26.2%	28.0%	22.2%
wOBA	.294	.286	.313
wRC+	87	82	100

So I gotta continue to believe that the hitting coaching is not the issue, and that the more Harris turns over the roster to be more players he acquires, the better overall results at the plate we will see.

Thanks for the breakdown.  Small samples, but perhaps the Harris approach could yield more consistency.  Also of note is that the overall production results (wOBA, WRC+) are the same, so maybe the Harris approach is more aesthetic but not necessarily more effective.   

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

There is something like 20% turnover in a given month in-season, let alone over multiple seasons. Beyond that, just rattling over a fixed lineup just ignores the trends in baseball roster management these days, let alone how Hinch has managed.

The same can be said about locking Keith into a position.  They aren't necessarily going to stick him at third and leave him there every day.  

[SoCalTiger]

Is players moving from position to position a good thing for offense and defense ?

[Edman85]

Yes because it opens up options when guys need a day off or there is injury. Player X gets hurt: just call up the next position player not necessarily the one that fills that position.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I must hypothesize again that there is a talent issue here, specifically Avila players vs Harris players, vs it being a coaching issue.

You may remember this post of mine:

I which I showed that when it came to controlling the zone this season, the Harris players in aggregate were among the best in baseball, and the Avila players were among the worst.

But you may be surprised to learn that the end-of-season collapse was not the same for each group, and if we isolate September, we see there was almost no change at all for the Harris players, while it was the Avila players that ended up tripping all over themselves:

Full Season	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	6093	3997	2096
BB% rate	8.4%	7.4%	10.3%
K% rate	23.9%	25.5%	20.8%
wOBA	.317	.318	.315
wRC+	103	103	101
Sept Only	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	911	632	279
BB% rate	9.0%	7.8%	11.8%
K% rate	26.2%	28.0%	22.2%
wOBA	.294	.286	.313
wRC+	87	82	100

So I gotta continue to believe that the hitting coaching is not the issue, and that the more Harris turns over the roster to be more players he acquires, the better overall results at the plate we will see.

So is the next batch of players coming up Harris guys? I have a hard time criticizing the Avila guys because without them, we don't make the playoffs the last 2 seasons. I certainly don't want to make a wholesale change to rid our team of every player Avila was responsible for acquiring. And watching Riley swing from his ankles and strike out over 200 times this season? If it's his approach, that could be coaching. Is Riley too stubborn to listen to coaching? Are they even talking to him about his swing? Or is it something he simply has to correct during the off-season? He's still young enough to improve, hopefully he cuts down on that long swing.

[Tiger337]

44 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Is players moving from position to position a good thing for offense and defense ?

It's a good thing to an extent, but I think it can be over done defensively.  It is good because if provides roster flexibility.  I believe most of the benefit is on the offensive side though.  I think players can maximize their collective defensive skills playing together as unit. It makes since for somebody like Keith, who doesn't excel any particular position to move around the field in order to keep his bat in the line-up and gve players rests.  It might not make sense for everyone though.  

Edited October 20 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I must hypothesize again that there is a talent issue here, specifically Avila players vs Harris players, vs it being a coaching issue.

You may remember this post of mine:

I which I showed that when it came to controlling the zone this season, the Harris players in aggregate were among the best in baseball, and the Avila players were among the worst.

But you may be surprised to learn that the end-of-season collapse was not the same for each group, and if we isolate September, we see there was almost no change at all for the Harris players, while it was the Avila players that ended up tripping all over themselves:

Full Season	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	6093	3997	2096
BB% rate	8.4%	7.4%	10.3%
K% rate	23.9%	25.5%	20.8%
wOBA	.317	.318	.315
wRC+	103	103	101
Sept Only	Team	Avila	Harris
PAs	911	632	279
BB% rate	9.0%	7.8%	11.8%
K% rate	26.2%	28.0%	22.2%
wOBA	.294	.286	.313
wRC+	87	82	100

So I gotta continue to believe that the hitting coaching is not the issue, and that the more Harris turns over the roster to be more players he acquires, the better overall results at the plate we will see.

you are basically conceded that coaching is pointless, which is a defensible but depressing conclusion.

[gehringer_2]

23 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It's a good thing to an extent, but I think it can be over done defensively.  It is good because if provides roster flexibility.  I believe most of the benefit is on the offensive side though.  I think players can maximize their collective defensive skills playing together as unit. It makes since for somebody like Keith, who doesn't excel any particular position to move around the field in order to keep his bat in the line-up and gve players rests.  It might not make sense for everyone though.  

And you have to consider the player. Some guys are just natural fielders  - in the sense that everything about catching a ball sort of comes to them naturally - they can move with little impact on their confidence - Baez being the example. Those guys don't care where you play them. Other guys have to work at fielding, footwork, etc. A player like that may have competence and confidence issue if you don't let him settle into one position, and that can spill over into hitting etc. So like everything else  - it depends.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

you are basically conceded that coaching is pointless, which is a defensible but depressing conclusion.

I'm conceding nothing of the sort. I would concede that players are not jelly that can be molded into anything coaches want. Coaches can help players get the best out of their talents, but they can't give players brand new talents.

Edited October 20 by chasfh

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

So is the next batch of players coming up Harris guys? I have a hard time criticizing the Avila guys because without them, we don't make the playoffs the last 2 seasons. I certainly don't want to make a wholesale change to rid our team of every player Avila was responsible for acquiring. And watching Riley swing from his ankles and strike out over 200 times this season? If it's his approach, that could be coaching. Is Riley too stubborn to listen to coaching? Are they even talking to him about his swing? Or is it something he simply has to correct during the off-season? He's still young enough to improve, hopefully he cuts down on that long swing.

I agree it's true that Tork and Riley and Dingler and Javy, all Avila acquisitions, were instrumental in getting us to the playoffs. It is also true that they are all flawed when it comes to walk rates and/or strikeout rates, and I believe they brought those flaws with them into the system—rather than being coached into those flaws—and that's what everyone seems to be complaining about, especially the strikeout rates.

There might be room for one or more of these guys on the peak Harris Tigers. Or maybe not. It's not as though any of them have shown that they are slam-dunk perennial All-Stars, even Riley, who's probably the closest of them. It's possible none of them are on the team any longer by 2029. This remains to be seen.

One of the key takeaways from my post was intended to be that firing the hitting coaches is probably not an action item this winter, nor should it be.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

On 10/18/2025 at 4:45 PM, oblong said:

He said he had the paperwork in his drawer. 

Lynn Henning had this on Twitter a few years back as apart of an article he did chronicling Randy Smith and interviewing him I believe. Randy Smith will always have a special place in my, cold, black heart for what he did to this franchise and how he ruined nearly a decade of baseball for me as a kid.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Imagine a starting outfield of Bernie Williams in CF, Bobby Higginson in RF, and Luis Gonzalez in LF. That would have actually been fairly solid in the field and in the batting order.

Edited October 20 by Mr.TaterSalad

[4hzglory]

14 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I agree it's true that Tork and Riley and Dingler and Javy, all Avila acquisitions, were instrumental in getting us to the playoffs. It is also true that they are all flawed when it comes to walk rates and/or strikeout rates, and I believe they brought those flaws with them into the system—rather than being coached into those flaws—and that's what everyone seems to be complaining about, especially the strikeout rates.

There might be room for one or more of these guys on the peak Harris Tigers. Or maybe not. It's not as though any of them have shown that they are slam-dunk perennial All-Stars, even Riley, who's probably the closest of them. It's possible none of them are on the team any longer by 2029. This remains to be seen.

One of the key takeaways from my post was intended to be that firing the hitting coaches is probably not an action item this winter, nor should it be.

Of the 3 you mention, I actually think Tork has the best opportunity as it currently stands to fit Harris' mold, especially when the challenge system is in effect.  I think his walk rates will increase significantly and hopefully his eye that is currently almost too good actually becomes an asset.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Thanks for the breakdown.  Small samples, but perhaps the Harris approach could yield more consistency.  Also of note is that the overall production results (wOBA, WRC+) are the same, so maybe the Harris approach is more aesthetic but not necessarily more effective.   

That's one way of looking at it. Another way is that the best of Harris's acquisitions have yet to make the team, while the best of Avila's acquisitions are already here and close to their prime. Once the best of Harris's guys are here and close to their primes, let's revisit.

[Tiger337]

15 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Lynn Henning had this on Twitter a few years back as apart of an article he did chronicling Randy Smith and interviewing him I believe. Randy Smith will always have a special place in my, cold, black heart for what he did to this franchise and how he ruined nearly a decade of baseball for me as a kid.

I know it's real, but that looks like an AI generated article which is too good to be true!

[Tenacious D]

Would that have been Cashmsn?  He would have been thrown out of NYC if that had been consummated