2026 NFL Postseason

[Nate7474]

1 hour ago, sagnam said:

The need to act like Holmes and Campbell are always right is near cult like. It’s acceptable to be a fan of someone and still disagree with some of their decisions. You are allowed to expect more and still support them. You are even allowed to openly question them without wanting them replaced!

 

Why are people like this? If we aren’t winning then the plan didn’t work. It’s not really even debatable. The “rebuild” is over, no more looking toward the next draft. There is enough talent on this team to be in the playoffs. Something went wrong. It’s not just injuries, SF has an entire conspiracy theory around their injuries and they won a road playoff game.

Criticizing is fine and I think for this year there is a couple valid things that I would.

1) Counting on Glasgow and rookies on the line

2) Relying on Davenport to be healthy and productive 

3) This may be just my opinion but I didn’t like the RB usage this year. Monty didn’t get used well and Gibbs got overused. 
4) Overaggressive approach offensively the second half of the year. Gimmick plays when not needed and 4th down calls 
5) Defense being stubbornly stuck to high usage of man to man even when injuries caught up. 
 

Things that I don’t think are fair criticism is for injuries and not trading for players. I am of the opinion that you basically never trade middle of the season on the NFL unless you need only 1 player. That was not the Lions this year. 

[Motown Bombers]

Let’s make a trade to make a trade so we can say we did something. 
 

If the Eagles would have just kept Sweat and Williams instead of trading for Phillips, maybe they’re still playing but they made a trade because they want to win!

Edited Wednesday at 01:23 AM by Motown Bombers

[sagnam]

Eagles won the Super Bowl last year and made the playoffs this year. It’s a weird angle to take, but OK. The Lions missed the playoffs. They failed. Throwing your hands up like, “welp, nothing at all we could have done differently, hopefully we get lucky next year” is a loser mentality. What could they have done better? What decisions held them back? These are valid questions.

 

As Nate said, it looks like the RB usage has driven one half of our inseparable duo to want out of town. Is he cooked? Or was it inability to see the value of Montgomery? In mid October, “Gibbs has played 230 snaps this season, or 62 percent, while Montgomery has played 143 snaps, which equates to 39 percent of the team's action.” Would Gibbs have been more productive later in the season if he wasn’t overused in the first third?

[gehringer_2]

6 hours ago, sagnam said:

Eagles won the Super Bowl last year and made the playoffs this year. It’s a weird angle to take, but OK. The Lions missed the playoffs. They failed. Throwing your hands up like, “welp, nothing at all we could have done differently, hopefully we get lucky next year” is a loser mentality. What could they have done better? What decisions held them back? These are valid questions.

 

As Nate said, it looks like the RB usage has driven one half of our inseparable duo to want out of town. Is he cooked? Or was it inability to see the value of Montgomery? In mid October, “Gibbs has played 230 snaps this season, or 62 percent, while Montgomery has played 143 snaps, which equates to 39 percent of the team's action.” Would Gibbs have been more productive later in the season if he wasn’t overused in the first third?

Both RB saw their success rate fall by about the same % - which goes right to the OL. But Gibbs rushes per game were about the same as last season. A chunk of the shift was that Montgomery lost rushing attempts to not to more runs by Gibbs but pass targets to Gibbs.

[Motown Bombers]

Like I said, if the Eagles keep their star defensive lineman, maybe they are in the Super Bowl again. But drafting, developing and retaining isn’t fun. 

[MichiganCardinal]

7 hours ago, sagnam said:

Eagles won the Super Bowl last year and made the playoffs this year. It’s a weird angle to take, but OK. The Lions missed the playoffs. They failed. Throwing your hands up like, “welp, nothing at all we could have done differently, hopefully we get lucky next year” is a loser mentality. What could they have done better? What decisions held them back? These are valid questions.

I don't think it has to do with throwing your hands up. I think it's just a matter of understanding that (1) they're not that far away, (2) drastic departures from the course are not needed, and (3) any drastic changes--at least as it relates to player personnel--have downstream consequences that you'll have to pay.

While I think "luck" in some sense is a requirement to win three straight in January, in order to play in February (look at the damn Patriots path), I also don't think that's a real plan or part of their calculus. I just think they have their plan, believe in it, and aren't going to knee jerk away from it because of a 9-8 season in what was a very difficult schedule.

That is just to say I think those questions are being asked internally. I think they recognize and appreciate that they had the worst center in all of football last year starting in between two rookies, and that the run game was never going to get off the ground (no pun intended) with that setup. Obviously they recognized Morton as a problem, they fired him before everyone had even flown home for the offseason, and hired his replacement by mid-January. I just would be a little surprised if they make any huge moves (maybe notwithstanding Tyler Linderbaum, that would actually make a lot of sense if Decker retired and they planned to draft his replacement).

[MichiganCardinal]

RE Montgomery: While I love Monty, and I think his return is probably the best bet for the offense, he's also not irreplaceable, just like Jamaal Williams wasn't irreplaceable. The advanced metrics that brought Montgomery here in 2023 aren't what they once were (though, again, neither was the offensive line). Monty averaged 2.2 YAC/Attempt this year (a low in Detroit) and had only three broken tackles all season. He hadn't had below 16 broken tackles to this point in his career. He's also getting up there in years for running backs. He'll be 29 next season. For context, Saquon's drop off this year happened after he turned 28. When you look at current NFL RBs performing at a high level past 28, you're looking at a very limited list: Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery, and Saquon are the only three above 600 yards. Is Monty among that elite group?

As potential replacements go, Javonte Williams recorded 2.5 YAC/Attempt behind the Dallas offensive line and was 2nd to only Jonathan Taylor in broken tackles. He's a free agent and three years younger than Monty. JK Dobbins is two years younger (which surprised me) and averaged 2.4 YAC/Attempt with 9 broken tackles in Denver this year. Thinking outside the box, De'Von Achane is entering the final year of his rookie contract and the Dolphins have Jaylen Wright in the wings. They may trade Achane, even if it's a one-year rental option.

[Motown Bombers]

I still like Vaki. His build, measurable, and style are all exactly like Montgomery. Injuries really slowed his progress this year. 

[MichiganCardinal]

14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I still like Vaki. His build, measurable, and style are all exactly like Montgomery. Injuries really slowed his progress this year. 

I do too. I probably wouldn't trust him as Montgomery's replacement next year, but he could be penciled in for 2027 if they had to replace Monty with a one-year rental.

[Stanley70]

Of all the Holmes picks, Vaki is the most questionable. He spent a fourth on him, and traded up adding a 6th and a 2024 and 2025 fourth.. He isn't fast enough to be a safety, so he is a RB. He had 42 total carries at Utah. 

He has been, when healthy, the fourth option at RB. I wouldn't count on him to be more than a RB3 on reliability alone.

I guess if you like a guy you take him but trading up wasn't a good idea. Kind of a nitpick in Holmes draft record, but they could have used actual depth at positions they needed like safety or TE.

 

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

Of all the Holmes picks, Vaki is the most questionable. He spent a fourth on him, and traded up adding a 6th and a 2024 and 2025 fourth.. He isn't fast enough to be a safety, so he is a RB. He had 42 total carries at Utah. 

He has been, when healthy, the fourth option at RB. I wouldn't count on him to be more than a RB3 on reliability alone.

I guess if you like a guy you take him but trading up wasn't a good idea. Kind of a nitpick in Holmes draft record, but they could have used actual depth at positions they needed like safety or TE.

 

In 2024 they had Joseph, Branch and Melifonwu at safety. They were set at safety. At TE they had Laporta and Wright. They were fine there. Montgomery’s original contract with the Lions would have been up now. Drafting a developmental running back who is an excellent special teamer made sense. 

[sagnam]

14 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I don't think it has to do with throwing your hands up. I think it's just a matter of understanding that (1) they're not that far away, (2) drastic departures from the course are not needed, and (3) any drastic changes--at least as it relates to player personnel--have downstream consequences that you'll have to pay.

While I think "luck" in some sense is a requirement to win three straight in January, in order to play in February (look at the damn Patriots path), I also don't think that's a real plan or part of their calculus. I just think they have their plan, believe in it, and aren't going to knee jerk away from it because of a 9-8 season in what was a very difficult schedule.

That is just to say I think those questions are being asked internally. I think they recognize and appreciate that they had the worst center in all of football last year starting in between two rookies, and that the run game was never going to get off the ground (no pun intended) with that setup. Obviously they recognized Morton as a problem, they fired him before everyone had even flown home for the offseason, and hired his replacement by mid-January. I just would be a little surprised if they make any huge moves (maybe notwithstanding Tyler Linderbaum, that would actually make a lot of sense if Decker retired and they planned to draft his replacement).

Then they should be discussed here too. But any time the lack of movement this year at the deadline is raised, or evidence that it’s a viable strategy is presented, the Eagles are brought up because they didn’t re-sign someone last offseason or didn’t win their playoff game this year. It’s reasonable to question the lack of movement. At the trade deadline we had needs at OL, DE (or anyone who can rush the passer), CB and S. We should be questioning if not finding an improvement at any of those hurt this team’s chances at making a run. It should be fair to question if saving mid to late round draft picks for projects is more valuable than improving the team today.

 

I love the idea of building through the draft, but reality is that even Holmes is going to miss, and many of these mid to late round picks are only viable several seasons later. This is a rough sport, it’s highly likely that injuries are going to happen that you couldn’t have predicted 2+ years ago to have the project ready to step up, so sometimes spending draft capital to improve any area, even to league average, could be the difference.

 

I would like to see the team get a little more aggressive now that the core is in place. I don’t think that’s a crazy ask. I’d be interested if anyone has credible info and any real trade targets from this deadline. New England didn’t make and trades but they are reported to have made several offers and just got outbid. One was getting outbid by Seattle in the trade that started the latest attack. And before the strawman of “MaYbE the LiOnS sHoUlD hAvE tRaDeD fOr ShAhEeD” gets built we can all agree that the Lions did not need a WR/PR, even given our KR was embarrassingly bad. There were just bigger holes.

[Motown Bombers]

I mean, the Lions were reported to be in on Phillips but the Lions didn't have a third round pick. Perhaps Holmes should have traded for other players that weren't apparently available. 

The Lions didn't have a need at S at the trade deadline. They had Branch and Maddox and Harper was playing well and Joseph seemed like he was going to come back. 

[Stanley70]

It's hard to critisize Holmes when we dont know who was availble, but in general during this window where they have a superbowl caliber roster i'd like him to be agressive patching holes at trade deadline.

It seems like the last few years we have had a couple positions where we have sub relplacement level guys in the starting lineup leading up to and into the playoffs. Guys like Vildor, Pat O'Connor, Glasgow, Davenport, etc. Would have been nice to upgrade a couple of those positions.

[RatkoVarda]

and there would be more picks available to make a modest trade if Holmes did not piss away picks to move up to grab Arnold, Manu, Vaki, TeSlaa, Martin, Fraizer, and others.

[Jason_R]

2 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

and there would be more picks available to make a modest trade if Holmes did not piss away picks to move up to grab Arnold, Manu, Vaki, TeSlaa, Martin, Fraizer, and others.

This is a legitimate complaint about Holmes. It is the downside of his smartest-guy-in-the-room tendency to identify the guys he thinks will be difference makers and to find a way to get them. Maybe he will learn from this, or maybe this will be his Achilles heel, like Dan being overly aggressive on 4th down  

The trade deadline stuff is a sideshow. There are relatively few players available at any given trade deadline. Often the marginal difference between players available by trade versus players in practice squads who already know your coaches, system, and personnel, is not significant.  

[MichiganCardinal]

31 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

This is a legitimate complaint about Holmes. It is the downside of his smartest-guy-in-the-room tendency to identify the guys he thinks will be difference makers and to find a way to get them. Maybe he will learn from this, or maybe this will be his Achilles heel, like Dan being overly aggressive on 4th down  

The trade deadline stuff is a sideshow. There are relatively few players available at any given trade deadline. Often the marginal difference between players available by trade versus players in practice squads who already know your coaches, system, and personnel, is not significant.  

I think it's just his identity, so in that sense he's going to live by the sword, die by the sword. He loves his guys and he'll do what needs to be done to get them. Sometimes that works (ASB, Jamo), sometimes it doesn't (Brodric Martin). Same for Dan. Sometimes it works (Wildcard Round against the Rams in 2023), sometimes it doesn't (this year against the Eagles).

I agree about the trade deadline stuff. One of Brad's comments in his year-end presser was that he gets all these questions about why they did or didn't make a move at the deadline, when they don't ask about those same things in June or July. Often those conversations are happening without anyone knowing or thinking about it, even though the media coverage circles around that deadline as the last possible day it could happen.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

What made Hendon Hooker one of his guys? Was Jared Goff not one of his guys when he drafted Hooker? Were we looking at having a dual-QB or platoon offense? Was Hooker trade bait in hopes that he'd develop and you could flip him for more in the future?

Edited 8 hours ago by Mr.TaterSalad

[Jason_R]

I agree that Hooker was his worst decision. Made no sense at the time. Even less in retrospect. 

[Jason_R]

Speaking of Hooker, he was drafted right before Tank Dell. Martin was drafted right after Jordan Battle. This franchise looks a lot different if, instead of those two, Brad had picked, say Byron Young or Kobie Turner.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

48 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

I agree that Hooker was his worst decision. Made no sense at the time. Even less in retrospect. 

I get Brad falling in love with a guy and wanting his guys during the draft. I have no problem with that generally as I trust is scouting process. It's what got us St. Brown, Joseph, and Mahogany. Even when it fails in the case of a Brodric Martin I'm willing to be forgiving, if a bit critical of those types of moves where he gives up capital to move up. The Hooker one never, ever made an ounce of sense though. Even if Hooker was a guy Holmes had eyeballed for whatever reason, if he didn't plan to draft and develop him as a Jared Goff replacement, there was no reason for him to be taken. A clear waste of a pick that could have went into finding another starter.

[MichiganCardinal]

Hooker was as much drafted as leverage in ongoing contract negotiations with Goff as he was drafted to be a project backup QB. I don't think there was ever a realistic plan for him to challenge Goff, but the idea was that if he saved us $10MM on Goff and then we eventually traded him for a mid to late round pick, he was worth it. It's not like there was a realistic option if Goff and Detroit came to an impasse. Nate Sudfeld was our backup in 2022.

That being said, Hooker was an appealing candidate as a project QB too. He was a candidate for Heisman and would have gone in the first round if not for his ACL injury. I don't think anyone predicted he would be just as awful as he has been. And, for the "Brad Holmes trades too many assets" crowd, he traded down twice before drafting Hooker.

[4hzglory]

59 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

 

That being said, Hooker was an appealing candidate as a project QB too. He was a candidate for Heisman and would have gone in the first round if not for his ACL injury. I don't think anyone predicted he would be just as awful as he has been. And, for the "Brad Holmes trades too many assets" crowd, he traded down twice before drafting Hooker.

I do think Hooker was drafted as a potential cheaper replacement if he developed and Goff didn't do what he has the last 3 seasons.  Not that they "doubted" Goff, but Goff has taken his game to another level since the time Hooker was drafted.  The offense being tailored to him has been huge, but at the time there was a reason for uncertainty as to if Goff was going to make sense to sign to the extension he ended up getting.

[Motown Bombers]

5 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

It's hard to critisize Holmes when we dont know who was availble, but in general during this window where they have a superbowl caliber roster i'd like him to be agressive patching holes at trade deadline.

It seems like the last few years we have had a couple positions where we have sub relplacement level guys in the starting lineup leading up to and into the playoffs. Guys like Vildor, Pat O'Connor, Glasgow, Davenport, etc. Would have been nice to upgrade a couple of those positions.

They traded for the best available pass rusher at the deadline last year.