Shades of Deivi Cruz Posted July 30 Posted July 30 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Qualification Limits Roster days: Fewer than 45 total days spent on an active major league roster during the championship season I have great news. He won't spend any days this year on the roster during a championship season. 1 Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 4 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: 100% agree. This team has the talent to catch the teams in front of them. But at 24% probability, trading Skubal is the right move IMO. And 2024 was definitely an anomaly at the time, but while not quite as bad of odds, Cleveland had a real similar comeback last year. Is it a fluke it happened 2 years in a row? Or is it going to become more normal. Boston doing what they did after being 11-12 games under .500 had pretty microscopic odds of happening. Given the expanding role of bullpens and the alarming increase in injuries, I think baseball outcomes are getting more random and uncertain. Surprise comebacks will probably continue to happen. 2 Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 30 Posted July 30 38 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: I do not understand the trade Skubal and keep Mize. Either you're all in or all out to me. But Harris has the job for a reason so we shall see. This is his opportunity to shine. Everyone thinks we'll get a haul for Skubal. If we could get a haul for Mize I'd be all for trading him. Plus I think people see Mize as being potentially in our price range to sign and keep. 2 Quote
DTroppens Posted July 30 Posted July 30 19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: 2024 was an anomaly, but this team has more talent than that. I look at the rosters of the teams ahead of them and I am not impressed. I think the Tigers are as good or better than the teams they need to catch. I don't think 86 wins is necessarily needed. Fangraphs has them at 24% probaility this morning. That's a percentage which tells me that trading Skubal is probably the right thing to do, but it's not a percentage where catching up is a fantasy. And while it may lessen those percentages after a trade, no one is telling the team that remains they can't compete for a playoff spot still. This is by no means a wasted last two months. Let's see who become leaders. Let players develop. Bring up Max Clark with the intention of getting him to that triple-digit PA number. Let him learn now before next season. And maybe some of the players the Tigers get for Skubal could be prospects that they can bring to the table at the end of the season. Or if there is a vet figure out where he fits in as well. About the 86 wins. Maybe 85 or even gets someone in. But right now it seems only two spots are available and two teams will likely step up and get to at least 85 wins is my guess. But, with the Tigers having really no real head-to-head tiebreakers against the teams they are likely going to need them (if they need to win the battle for a third WC spot), the Tigers are going to need that extra win to break these ties in most scenarios. I was shocked to see how bad their tiebreakers were when I checked them out yesterday. The Tigers can't tie many teams with 85 wins and expect to get a spot. Quote
DTroppens Posted July 30 Posted July 30 49 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: I do not understand the trade Skubal and keep Mize. Either you're all in or all out to me. But Harris has the job for a reason so we shall see. This is his opportunity to shine. I think keeping Mize is likely, but if he's not signed for next season now, then he's tradeable and they should if they get the right offer. If I heard the Tigers signed Mize for three seasons at a reasonable amount today, I'd be happy with it for sure. I wonder when a trade for Skubal happens, if we may hear about a contract extension to someone like Mize? Quote
Hongbit Posted July 30 Posted July 30 I can’t think of anything that wasn’t already a certain loss that I’d ever do that had a predicted success rate of 24% Quote
diaspora04 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said: I do not understand the trade Skubal and keep Mize. Either you're all in or all out to me. But Harris has the job for a reason so we shall see. This is his opportunity to shine. Mize has another year of control. A trade of Skubal may benefit the Tigers -- even in the short term -- more than keeping Skubal. Quote
SoCalTiger Posted July 30 Posted July 30 1 minute ago, diaspora04 said: Mize has another year of control. A trade of Skubal may benefit the Tigers -- even in the short term -- more than keeping Skubal. Mize is a free agent after this season Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Hongbit said: I can’t think of anything that wasn’t already a certain loss that I’d ever do that had a predicted success rate of 24% I wouldn't in my daily life, but sports is always a gamble by definition. Only one team out of 30 wins it all, so the odds are always heavily against you. What is the probabilty that they make the playoffs in 2027 or 2028 after the trades are made? Edited July 30 by Tiger337 Quote
diaspora04 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 3 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: Mize is a free agent after this season So he is. Please excuse my error. Now I am going to piggyback your original question, which your kind correction of my demonstrable falsehood has me wondering, too. Quote
lordstanley Posted July 30 Posted July 30 24 minutes ago, Hongbit said: I can’t think of anything that wasn’t already a certain loss that I’d ever do that had a predicted success rate of 24% It's roughly Matt Vierling's OBP of .255. Imagine going into an exam or a job interview with your chances of passing being similar to that of Vierling getting on base is in his next bat . 1 Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said: I do not understand the trade Skubal and keep Mize. Either you're all in or all out to me. But Harris has the job for a reason so we shall see. This is his opportunity to shine. Given Mize's injury history, the return may not be worth it. Thac can make a qualifying offer after the season and may be end up with a comp pick. 2 Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 5 minutes ago, lordstanley said: It's roughly Matt Vierling's OBP of .255. Imagine going into an exam or a job interview with your chances of passing being similar to that of Vierling getting on base is in his next bat . Most of my early job interviews had a far lower probabilty. 2 Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 30 Posted July 30 6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Most of my early job interviews had a far lower probabilty. Then he started staying at HIE. 1 Quote
DTroppens Posted July 30 Posted July 30 27 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Most of my early job interviews had a far lower probabilty. I've learned it's much easier getting a job when you have a job. I'm 4-for-4 in my last four job interviews. For the job I have now, I realized during the interview I wore two different shoes. Very close to being the same, but if one really looked for a few seconds you would've noticed it. This said, I haven't had a job interview in 24 years. I don't want to deal with job interviews any more and realize it's not going to be that easy today. I'm 57 and haven't created a resume in 24 years. I don't even know what resumes look like today. Quote
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 30 Posted July 30 Man, I'm so bored. The Tigers should make a trade today, just to make a trade. Send Kenley Jansen to a team for a B level prospect. I'll be happy w/ that. (for today) Quote
Shades of Deivi Cruz Posted July 30 Posted July 30 Anyone trading for a Tigers bullpen arm needs to have their head examined for CTE. That said, I'm all for it. 1 Quote
lordstanley Posted July 30 Posted July 30 40 minutes ago, DTroppens said: I've learned it's much easier getting a job when you have a job. I'm 4-for-4 in my last four job interviews. For the job I have now, I realized during the interview I wore two different shoes. Very close to being the same, but if one really looked for a few seconds you would've noticed it. This said, I haven't had a job interview in 24 years. I don't want to deal with job interviews any more and realize it's not going to be that easy today. I'm 57 and haven't created a resume in 24 years. I don't even know what resumes look like today. I’m 59 and haven’t had a job, as an employee, since 1995. Have made a couple hundred client proposals over the years so I guess that counts. 1 Quote
SeattleMike Posted July 30 Posted July 30 4 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Bringing up Clark now certainly seems to indicate that they are still trying to win. When you are within five games of a playoff spot, you have to remain competeitive and committed to winning and sometimes that means sacrificing potential future awards for the present even if the preceding stretch of ghames was disappointing. I only wish they did it sooner, but perhaps they didn't feel he was ready yet. Unless they have a fire sale, they can still have a chance to win if they trade Skubal. If they can immediately improve their offense in a trade of Skubal, everybody else stays, Flaherty gets back soon and Montero goes back to they pen, losing Skubal won't kill their chances of contending. The Tigers are only 5-4 in Skubal's starts since his return. He's pitched well enough that they should have won more, but they have been winning plenty of the non-Skubal starts. If you can get a big return for him, it really does make sense to move him. Anything less and I wouldn't bother. Of course I don't know what a big return would look like, maybe a young pitcher already having some success in the majors and an outfielder on the cusp of MLB. Quote
romad1 Posted July 30 Posted July 30 (edited) 1 hour ago, DTroppens said: I've learned it's much easier getting a job when you have a job. I'm 4-for-4 in my last four job interviews. For the job I have now, I realized during the interview I wore two different shoes. Very close to being the same, but if one really looked for a few seconds you would've noticed it. This said, I haven't had a job interview in 24 years. I don't want to deal with job interviews any more and realize it's not going to be that easy today. I'm 57 and haven't created a resume in 24 years. I don't even know what resumes look like today. Resumes are all 3D now. You have your avatar battle the HR person’s avatar Star Wars “Millennium Falcon”- chess style Edited July 30 by romad1 1 Quote
theroundsquare Posted July 30 Posted July 30 and if you're applying to be a manager in the big leagues, its five dimensional chess Quote
4hzglory Posted July 30 Posted July 30 (edited) 1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said: NVM I see she tweeted it at 9:07 this morning. Edited July 30 by 4hzglory Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 30 Posted July 30 Just now, 4hzglory said: She's a bit late to the party Lol..actually I am. She posted hours ago. I'm still very bitter from yesterday and if I would have posted? It woulda been gloom and doom. 1 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted July 30 Posted July 30 6 hours ago, 4hzglory said: I am too. It definitely indiacates they are trying to win, even if they end up trading Skubal, which at this point, I think they should. Looks like the end of Outman, or is Vierling injured enough to go to the IL? It's a desperation move to take the heat off of Harris, Hinch and the BP arms. Max can't pitch so we're basically in the same boat with him or without him. Bringing him up is a big nothing burger. Meh... Quote
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