4hzglory Posted July 15 Posted July 15 23 minutes ago, Shelton said: I still think they have to have a plan to do something to cut salary and avoid the tax in the event they aren’t trading Skubal and Mize. It doesn’t have to be Tork or anyone in particular, but it inherently has to be someone that fits the mold of being good enough to justify the elevated salary being dumped, but also not too good that they would be substantially missed. Tork is one example of that. That said, they are indeed short on right handed hitters and also shortstops, so Tork and Vierling and McKinstry might have to stay. The list starts getting pretty short if they aren’t being moved. One thought discussed with a former poster today was Jack Flaherty. He makes enough to get below the tax if he is moved. He’s pitching well enough and SP being in short supply across the league probably means you could actually get something for him (just like last time). At the moment he is part of a six man rotation and we do have Jobe on his way back. It would be a risk, but if this depth still exists, maybe an old school challenge trade of Jack in return for a right handed 1B/OF that makes less money could be a possibility. This is all moot if they become sellers. Depending on who the send down when Jobe is back, that will likely save them at least around a hundred K. Also, these would be minor, but if they moved SGL, from Edman's #s that would save around $135K, Madden would save around $140K. When Torres and Baez come back, if it's 2 of Malgeri/Valencia/Lee that go down it's around $200-215k saved for each depending on timing. So those 3 players (Jobe/Torres/Baez) back would save around $500K. If they would trade Brieske, that would be around $380 K. If they sent down Waguespack when Jobe is back, that $100K savings would jump to closer to $300K. If Baez is back and they decided to trade Vierling, that would be a bit over $1 mil savings. Burch Smith coming off the DL and getting activated and sent to Toledo would save around $400K. So there are definitely ways to get there, without moving key pieces. The biggest thing is to get the injured guys back so they can start saving the split difference for the optionable guys who wouldn't stay on the roster. If somehow Meadows would get healthy, either he or Outman would likely be sent to Toledo which would save $100-170K depending on the timing and which one. Same with Perez, if he gets healthy enough to activate and sent to AAA, that's another $100K plus. Or if they can trade him it would be over $250K. Quote
IdahoBert Posted July 15 Posted July 15 Is Torkelson‘s defense at first base really that big of a deal? On B-R 2026 he leads in AL in PO’s. He led the AL in assists last year. Maybe this is all serendipitous. I don’t know. First basemen, though, aren’t usually there because of their athleticism. His inconsistency at the plate is what’s frustrating. He’s like Henry Wadsworth Longfellow‘s famous poem about the little girl where he says: When she was good, She was very, very good, But when she was bad she was horrid. Quote
1984Echoes Posted July 16 Posted July 16 2 hours ago, Shinzaki said: Yeah...but Longfellow couldn't hit the curve Neither can Tork. 1 Quote
casimir Posted July 16 Posted July 16 6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I guess everything goes into the decision matrix but I would still focus most on games behind in the loss column to the Central leader. I still think the div is going to be the main chance - have to be within 5 (currently at 7) I would think the trade market at large becomes a factor as well. If it’s teetering towards sell and the sellers are moving players, does that increase the Tigers’ desire to move players and not be left holding expiring contracts in a sinking situation? I’m not as sold on having a certain record or a certain minimum distance behind a playoff spot by the deadline is going to cut it. They might have to make decisions earlier than the deadline. I think I understand what you’re saying about the division. The division involves fewer teams to climb over and more questions for those teams than maybe in the wildcard despite the “closer” games behind in the wildcard. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted July 16 Posted July 16 (edited) 15 minutes ago, casimir said: I would think the trade market at large becomes a factor as well. If it’s teetering towards sell and the sellers are moving players, does that increase the Tigers’ desire to move players and not be left holding expiring contracts in a sinking situation? I’m not as sold on having a certain record or a certain minimum distance behind a playoff spot by the deadline is going to cut it. They might have to make decisions earlier than the deadline. I think I understand what you’re saying about the division. The division involves fewer teams to climb over and more questions for those teams than maybe in the wildcard despite the “closer” games behind in the wildcard. If I put on my Machiavellian Devils advocate hat, I would invert the conventional wisdom and move Skubal now exactly because I want to get to the playoffs. The analysis being that we have enough starting pitching that the wins difference between Skubal and the guy pitching in his place (say likely Valdez or maybe Jobe) is going to be less than the wins difference between the position player he could bring and who that player replaces (take your pick of 500 OPS players regularly appearing in the starting lineup). <g,d&R> Edited July 16 by gehringer_2 Quote
NorthWoods Posted July 16 Posted July 16 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: If I put on my Machiavellian Devils advocate hat, I would invert the conventional wisdom and move Skubal now exactly because I want to get to the playoffs. The analysis being that we have enough starting pitching that the wins difference between Skubal and the guy pitching in his place (say likely Valdez or maybe Jobe) is going to be less than the wins difference between the position player he could bring and who that player replaces (take your pick of 500 OPS players regularly appearing in the starting lineup). <g,d&R> Ive advocated this too. If the market for Skubal is really strong and we could upgrade the daily output from 2 positions - say 1B and RF it would be a no brainer. Quote
casimir Posted July 16 Posted July 16 10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: If I put on my Machiavellian Devils advocate hat, I would invert the conventional wisdom and move Skubal now exactly because I want to get to the playoffs. The analysis being that we have enough starting pitching that the wins difference between Skubal and the guy pitching in his place (say likely Valdez or maybe Jobe) is going to be less than the wins difference between the position player he could bring and who that player replaces (take your pick of 500 OPS players regularly appearing in the starting lineup). <g,d&R> 7 hours ago, NorthWoods said: Ive advocated this too. If the market for Skubal is really strong and we could upgrade the daily output from 2 positions - say 1B and RF it would be a no brainer. While I don't see trading Skubal right now as likely, I can understand the move if the acquired personnel is a good fit given the SP depth and the rationale of addressing a weakness with a strength. Quote
Shades of Deivi Cruz Posted July 16 Posted July 16 10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: If I put on my Machiavellian Devils advocate hat, I would invert the conventional wisdom and move Skubal now exactly because I want to get to the playoffs. The analysis being that we have enough starting pitching that the wins difference between Skubal and the guy pitching in his place (say likely Valdez or maybe Jobe) is going to be less than the wins difference between the position player he could bring and who that player replaces (take your pick of 500 OPS players regularly appearing in the starting lineup). <g,d&R> Agreed, though to do that it probably needs to be a three team deal, with Skubal going to a contender, prospects going to the 3rd team, and position player(s) to the Tigers. Those are tough to pull off. Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 17 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I guess everything goes into the decision matrix but I would still focus most on games behind in the loss column to the Central leader. I still think the div is going to be the main chance - have to be within 5 (currently at 7) The actual number is a good subject of debate, but I do agree that games behind will probably be the determining factor, and i am pretty sure the front office is gaming out likely results of games played after August 3 with several potential roster scenarios to figure out how many games behind is right number. Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 16 hours ago, 4hzglory said: Depending on who the send down when Jobe is back, that will likely save them at least around a hundred K. Also, these would be minor, but if they moved SGL, from Edman's #s that would save around $135K, Madden would save around $140K. When Torres and Baez come back, if it's 2 of Malgeri/Valencia/Lee that go down it's around $200-215k saved for each depending on timing. So those 3 players (Jobe/Torres/Baez) back would save around $500K. If they would trade Brieske, that would be around $380 K. If they sent down Waguespack when Jobe is back, that $100K savings would jump to closer to $300K. If Baez is back and they decided to trade Vierling, that would be a bit over $1 mil savings. Burch Smith coming off the DL and getting activated and sent to Toledo would save around $400K. So there are definitely ways to get there, without moving key pieces. The biggest thing is to get the injured guys back so they can start saving the split difference for the optionable guys who wouldn't stay on the roster. If somehow Meadows would get healthy, either he or Outman would likely be sent to Toledo which would save $100-170K depending on the timing and which one. Same with Perez, if he gets healthy enough to activate and sent to AAA, that's another $100K plus. Or if they can trade him it would be over $250K. Tax Avoidance 101 question: is doing so all about saving pennies wherever possible, or is there a real roster consideration at hand here? Meaning, are there additional statutory roster or draft penalties attended to having to pay CBTs? This part is a bit of a black hole in my knowledge of baseball. Quote
4hzglory Posted July 16 Posted July 16 (edited) 23 minutes ago, chasfh said: Tax Avoidance 101 question: is doing so all about saving pennies wherever possible, or is there a real roster consideration at hand here? Meaning, are there additional statutory roster or draft penalties attended to having to pay CBTs? This part is a bit of a black hole in my knowledge of baseball. It would be the difference between up to 5 draft picks before round 2 next year and 2 (if McGonigle wins ROY) Under the current system, We would lose our Comp A pick, and the compensation for Skubal/Muze would drop from after the 1st round to after the 4th. i see no way they don’t get under the tax for those reasons. Edited July 16 by 4hzglory Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: If I put on my Machiavellian Devils advocate hat, I would invert the conventional wisdom and move Skubal now exactly because I want to get to the playoffs. The analysis being that we have enough starting pitching that the wins difference between Skubal and the guy pitching in his place (say likely Valdez or maybe Jobe) is going to be less than the wins difference between the position player he could bring and who that player replaces (take your pick of 500 OPS players regularly appearing in the starting lineup). <g,d&R> Setting aside whatever Machiavelli might have to do with this 🤷🏼♂️, this looks good on paper, and Deivi's three-team scenario may well be the best way to get there. But man, it had better work by resulting in a deep playoff run, or else every person on this board is going to rake Harris for taking a swing like that. Ah, whatever, he's gonna get raked anyway no matter what he does or doesn't do ... 😁 Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 2 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: It would be the difference between up to 5 draft picks before round 2 next year and 2 (if McGonigle wins ROY) So we would lose two, maybe three, draft picks for exceeding a certain threshold? Do I understand that right? What does the threshold for this have to be and how close are we to it? Quote
4hzglory Posted July 16 Posted July 16 (edited) 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: So we would lose two, maybe three, draft picks for exceeding a certain threshold? Do I understand that right? What does the threshold for this have to be and how close are we to it? Yes, next year we would lose 1 pick completely (the competitve balance pick) and our compensation for losing free agents that we offered Qualifying offers to (Skubal/Mize) would drop from after the first to after the 4th. The threshold is being a luxury tax payer, which according to Edman's calculations on the CBT thread, we are currently $1.5 million over which assumes the roster stays exactly as it is the rest of the season. Edited July 16 by 4hzglory Quote
4hzglory Posted July 16 Posted July 16 As Edman shows so well in the other thread, getting guys back - Torres/Baez/Jobe/Verlander, etc will save us money, the question is if getting healthy will save us enough on it's own. Quote
4hzglory Posted July 16 Posted July 16 If didn't have the potential losses of Skubal and Mize this year, and our competitive balance pick was after the 2nd round (like for the 2026 draft), going over the tax wouldn't be as significant of a penalty. This year, the penalty is huge for us. (Again, this assumes this part of the new CBA doesn't change, which who knows on that, but it's too much of a risk to take IMO) Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 10 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: Yes, next year we would lose 1 pick completely (the competitve balance pick) and our compensation for losing free agents that we offered Qualifying offers to (Skubal/Mize) would drop from after the first to after the 4th. The threshold is being a luxury tax payer, which according to Edman's calculations on the CBT thread, we are currently $1.5 million over which assumes the roster stays exactly as it is the rest of the season. What is the threshold number and what number are we at now? Quote
4hzglory Posted July 16 Posted July 16 1 minute ago, chasfh said: What is the threshold number and what number are we at now? The Threshold is $244,000,000 and according to Edman's last update after Jones was traded we are at $245,520,552 with potentially $100K more saved if we get cash instead of a PTBNL. Quote
Tiger337 Posted July 16 Posted July 16 18 minutes ago, chasfh said: Setting aside whatever Machiavelli might have to do with this 🤷🏼♂️, this looks good on paper, and Deivi's three-team scenario may well be the best way to get there. But man, it had better work by resulting in a deep playoff run, or else every person on this board is going to rake Harris for taking a swing like that. Ah, whatever, he's gonna get raked anyway no matter what he does or doesn't do ... 😁 Why do you care if Harris gets raked? Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Why do you care if Harris gets raked? Why do you care if I care? 😉 Edited July 16 by chasfh Quote
4hzglory Posted July 16 Posted July 16 (edited) 11 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: The Threshold is $244,000,000 and according to Edman's last update after Jones was traded we are at $245,520,552 with potentially $100K more saved if we get cash instead of a PTBNL. Obviously if we trade Skubal, we are easily under (depending on how much $ we take back), but the benefit of getting under drops by 1 draft pick as we wouldn't get one for losing him in FA. If we trade both Skubal and Mize, from the draft pick side, we only gain the Comp A pick by getting under the tax. Edited July 16 by 4hzglory Quote
chasfh Posted July 16 Posted July 16 13 minutes ago, 4hzglory said: Here is the thread where he is updating it Thanks for reminding me about this thread. It's rarely on my radar even when it gets bolded on my Tigers front page. Because I'm motivated at this very minute to learn more about this very thing that I've never really looked into before, I just googled "CBT Threshold $244,000,000 penalty" and was directed to this page: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax On this page it says the CBT threshold is $244 million for 2026, at which point we begin paying the tax: 20% on every dollar above that figure; an additional 12 points for every additional dollar between $20MM and $40MM over the $244MM; another 42.5 points for every thing between $40 and $60MM above the $244MM; and yet another 60 points for every dollar above $60MM above the $244MM. Rather complex, but OK, I get it. And then, in the final paragraph, it says also that: Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. Which reads to me that the Tigers would have our draft picks pushed back if our CBT payroll exceeds $284 million, which is still $38.5-ish million above the $245.5MM Edman said we were at as of day before yesterday. So, if I am understanding this right, it looks as though we have room to take on another $38MM+ in CBT payroll responsibility before we have to start coughing up draft pick position, meaning we don't have to worry about shaving this guy or that guy off the 40-man roster to maintain our draft pick position as currently constituted. Am I up to date on all this? Or am I missing something? Quote
Tenacious D Posted July 16 Posted July 16 Can anyone explain where our picks would fall if Kevin wins ROY, and we extend QO’s to Skubal, Mize and Flaherty and they all decline? Is there a scenario where we could end up with 5-6 picks in the top 75 (including our own 1-2 rounds)? Quote
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