Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

No, I think it had more to do with the conncetion to anarchists.  but curiously enough 'A&G' was a favorite expression of my mother, who was her daughter. 

I'd bet that the average semi-aware sophomore history major would be shocked by the casual denigration of those two by the layperson.   Considering their prominence in history books as symbols rather than flesh and blood participants in anarchist activity. 

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I'd bet that the average semi-aware sophomore history major would be shocked by the casual denigration of those two by the layperson.   Considering their prominence in history books as symbols rather than flesh and blood participants in anarchist activity. 

Also, in her case, being from a city in the ME that was still basically Greek when she grew up in it, she probably had more sense of 'Anarchism' as a politically relevant (and not good!) movement.

Edited May 19, 2023 by gehringer_2

[digitalpigsmuggler]

Europe Politics

Russia’s military has adapted and is now a more formidable enemy for Ukraine, defense analysts say

Quote

But defense analysts at a top London-based military think tank have investigated Russia’s tactical adaptations during the war and have noted that a more structured, coordinated and reactive armed force has emerged — and one that’s particularly strong on the defensive.

Quote

The depth of [Russian] defences mean that Ukraine must generate serious combat power in order to penetrate the Russian lines, with the extent of Russian defensive fortifications across the front making bypassing them near-impossible,” the report, published Friday, noted.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/russias-military-has-adapted-is-now-a-formidable-enemy-for-ukraine.html

For the record we have been promised a game changing offensive by Ukraine with massive territory gain. With Zelenskyy even stating Crimea can be taken this year.

 

 

[romad1]

I remember in my Freshman history class in HS back in 1982, there was a kid who very weirdly for Livonia Michigan was Argentinean.  He was cheerleading for the ruling Junta in the Falklands War.  He was very boastful.  He said things like: "and then we are going to take care of Chile!" after they landed on the Islands. 

Meanwhile, the reality of a 400 year tradition of infantry excellence smacked the draftee Argentina Army in the mouth as soon as it landed on the Islands once the 400 year tradition of Royal Navy excellence and a 40 year RAF/RNAF history of excellence was able to get the force there.   

Having family in the UK put me in the position of actively cheerleading for the Brits. 

 

[1984Echoes]

12 hours ago, chasfh said:

down, boy

No seriously... Little Miss Valentyna... I won't say her last name, from Kherson, Ukraine...

Looks like she could be Olga's older sister. Not joking.

[romad1]

17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No seriously... Little Miss Valentyna... I won't say her last name, from Kherson, Ukraine...

Looks like she could be Olga's older sister. Not joking.

I'm coming to the conclusion that Ukraine might become a popular vacation destination for dirty old men should it be kept free from Vladdie.  

[romad1]

Well alright.  Now make sure those Ukrainian runways are clear of FOD or maybe they have improved the F16 engine since my time. 

[gehringer_2]

18 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Well alright.  Now make sure those Ukrainian runways are clear of FOD or maybe they have improved the F16 engine since my time. 

I really don't know how much is just political reluctance by Biden vs US 3D level chess strategy vs a newly energized Europe, but as long as the right things do happen, then IMO having the US lurking more in the background than in  a highly public lead can only have good long term consequences - both for how things play in Russia and future Euro integration of Ukraine.

Edited May 19, 2023 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I really don't know how much is just political reluctance by Biden vs US 3D level chess strategy vs a newly energized Europe, but as long as the right things do happen, then IMO having the US lurking more in the background than in  a highly public lead can only have good long term consequences - both for how things play in Russia and future Euro integration of Ukraine.

I think this is right.  This isn't 2003 with only our most loyal friends following along.  

[1984Echoes]

I really love it that the U.K. has taken the lead in several instances here...

[digitalpigsmuggler]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I really love it that the U.K. has taken the lead in several instances here...

You mean Europe should be taking the lead in the whole Ukraine situation. The French and Germans have done little.

 

[Archie]

31 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

You mean Europe should be taking the lead in the whole Ukraine situation. The French and Germans have done little.

 

European countries should have taken the lead from the get go. Of course Biden is happy to fund Ukraine since they have been such a wonderful personal business partner for him and his boy.  The only action the US should take is lead peace talks to resolve.  

[ewsieg]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I really don't know how much is just political reluctance by Biden vs US 3D level chess strategy vs a newly energized Europe, but as long as the right things do happen, then IMO having the US lurking more in the background than in  a highly public lead can only have good long term consequences - both for how things play in Russia and future Euro integration of Ukraine.

This is where I get worried though.  I want Europe to lead, it's in their backyard, and they certainly have contributed more than I would have originally expected.  But I've had two fears with this, 1) this boils up into something much much bigger and is that worth it for a country that honestly doesn't have a lot of foreign value for us or 2) we get to a point like now where Ukraine is showing us something we didn't expect, but now is the US 3D level chess strategy weighing the pro's and con's of helping Ukraine defeat Russia or step back now, let Europe lead because it that'll give a better chance to allow continued fighting with no end in sight, costing Russia even more in terms of military. 

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

This is where I get worried though.  I want Europe to lead, it's in their backyard, and they certainly have contributed more than I would have originally expected.  But I've had two fears with this, 1) this boils up into something much much bigger and is that worth it for a country that honestly doesn't have a lot of foreign value for us or 2) we get to a point like now where Ukraine is showing us something we didn't expect, but now is the US 3D level chess strategy weighing the pro's and con's of helping Ukraine defeat Russia or step back now, let Europe lead because it that'll give a better chance to allow continued fighting with no end in sight, costing Russia even more in terms of military. 

Fair enough - and of course no-one knows what Russia is going to do. Putin could reverse himself, his position could collapse and what comes after could be better or worse, he could simply remain an intractable enemy of the West in all things, his army could turn on him, or not. We know from history that a dictactorship like Putin's is often perfectly stable right up until the moment it is not. Anyone who says they know is lying. But in the most fundamental sense, he is still the primary driver in this situation and everyone else's strategy is forced to be reactive. Clearly everyone hopes that an outright defeat or at least severe enough set-backs on the ground will eventually make Putin's continued control in Russia untenable and the resolution of the conflict with be a peice of the re-organization of the Russian state government, but hope is all it is. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

58 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

You mean Europe should be taking the lead in the whole Ukraine situation. The French and Germans have done little.

 

This is true on France and Germany. Or they've been dragged into action by other countries in the EU, or the UK (not in the EU)...

But:

Poland took the lead in absorbing Ukrainian refugees fleeing Putin's attempted genocide. I believe 12 million refugees passed through Poland, completely supported every step of the way, even if they ended up in another EU country. With somewhere between 1 and 2 million refugees still safe-harboring in Poland. That's not nothing.

Poland also took the lead in supplying, and processing/ pulling from other EU countries, every remnant/ scrap of Soviet military hardware and ammunition to forward to Ukraine. And backfilling by buying US Military technology. Mostly US, anyways. The $-value may not be there in Soviet stuff because it's all old crap... but that was the second line of defense for Ukraine's military. The supply, from all over the EU, of their existing military tech before moving on to western tech. Again, not nothing. The first line of course was all the anti-tank weapons sent to them from all over, before the Russians began their 2022 invasion. Oh, and the 8 years of training we gave them for this, starting from the initial 2014 invasion and land theft by Russia.

The UK has taken the lead in supplying modern Western tanks to Ukraine. Took the lead in supplying the longest range missiles to Ukraine (we were 1st I believe with HIMARS but the UK has sent over the longest range missiles) and is NOW taking the lead in training and (I believe) sourcing F-16's for Ukraine.

France and Germany have dragged their feet... but they've contributed. As has Italy, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Spain, etc...

I don't believe that report card is complete. The EU has contributed, a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

[romad1]

So many dumb and convenient takes (for Putin). 

[romad1]

Biden is kicking ass through collective security.  

[digitalpigsmuggler]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

 

 

 

Italy and France and others are doing very little. They should pay their fair share instead of relying on the US tax payers to foot the bill

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

 

[romad1]

 

yes, good. 

[romad1]

Concur

 

[romad1]

Yep

 

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

This is true on France and Germany.

TBF, Germany has made a turnaround since the Defense Minister was replaced in Jan.

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Yep

 

May or may not be signficant that Colin Kahl is leaving the Admin to go back to Stanford. Supposedly he and Blinken have been at odds over levels of support for Ukraine.

[romad1]

39 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

May or may not be signficant that Colin Kahl is leaving the Admin to go back to Stanford. Supposedly he and Blinken have been at odds over levels of support for Ukraine.

Yeah, looks like he lost that debate. 

[romad1]

So, Zelensky being in Saudi is interesting.  Who better to counter an oil weapon but OPEC?