11/02/2022 8:00 EDT Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks

[casimir]

   

Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks

[casimir]

The early season has been odd.  A pair of back-to-backs in one city vs the same team with a day in between.  But then to add to the oddity, the day before these matchups, there was a game in a different city.

Last week was at Washington on a Tuesday followed by consecutive games vs Atlanta in a Wednesday and Friday.  And this week is home vs Golden State on a Sunday followed by consecutive games at Milwaukee on a Monday and a Wednesday. 

I suppose the back to backs on consecutive days in different cities aren't new.  But the consecutive games in the same city with a day off in between?  What are we doing?

[Hart]

Is there anybody better at pump faking from three than Bojan?  Seems like he does it once a game to clear the defender and then drain a three.  

[Tigeraholic1]

7 minutes ago, Hart said:

Is there anybody better at pump faking from three than Bojan?  Seems like he does it once a game to clear the defender and then drain a three.  

He does a great job at drawing multiple defenders and finding the open man. He is fun to watch.

[buddha]

ouch.

[boogiebunz]

This team will struggle against any team with size and length in the front court. They give up a ton of offensive boards, easy putbacks, and can't challenge at the rim. Against a team like the Bucks especially, it's exaggerated and magnified how small and unathletic the Pistons frontcourt is.

It's a big reason I would still like to experiment with Bagley and Duren in the starting line+up, even at the expense of losing three point shooting.

Edited November 3, 2022 by boogiebunz

[casimir]

8 hours ago, buddha said:

ouch.

Its kind of unfair.  The way the schedule is set up, the Bucks were able to figure out the Pistons on the back end of the back-to-back.

On the bright side, tankathon odds improved.

[Betrayer]

12 hours ago, boogiebunz said:

It's a big reason I would still like to experiment with Bagley and Duren in the starting line+up, even at the expense of losing three point shooting.

That duo would cause major spacing issues as we saw when they came off the bench together. The solution is to start Stew + Duren (preferably) or Stew + Bagley. Stew isn't great from 3 yet, but the shot looks good and he's a lot closer to being a spacing threat than any of the other big men on the team. Plus, let's be honest, his only future on a contender is to try to fit into the Grant Williams role, so we might as well start moving him in that direction.

[boogiebunz]

Spacing will continue to be an issue regardless if Bogey is the only one consistently making shots. Teams will continue to play off everyone else, even off Bey because he’s slow to shoot and he allows defenders to recover even when they play off. When Bogey pumpfakes, he pumpfakes to get open. When Saddiq pumpfakes, he pumpfakes just for the sake of pumpfaking, and then he often still doesn’t shoot it and forces a slow, deliberate drive.

You put Bagley in the midpost and when he scores effectively, he will create spacing on that strongside. Plant Duren somewhere on the weak side and let him offensive rebound. Cade at the top, Bagley in the midpost, and Bogey on the opposite side elbow for a kick out is something that will be effective regardless of who the other two guys in the line-up are. Doesn’t make a huge difference between Stewart and Duren because the vast majority of the scoring will ultimately be on Cade, Bagley, and Bogey anyway.

Even if you argue it hurts spacing offensively, I could counter that it helps with offensive rebounding, interior defense and contesting at the rim, and rebounding at both ends at such a more significant difference that it more than offsets any negative impact on spacing.

[boogiebunz]

Also, as for Stewart on a contender, in my honest opinion, whatever role he would potentially play, it likely would have to be off the bench, not a starter. I don’t see him as a starter on any legitimate contending team, and certainly not on a team with a frontcourt that already lacks size and length and athleticism. Moreover, if Bogdanovic is one of the starting forwards, I don’t think Saddiq Bey can be the other starting forward on a legitimate contending team. 

The way I see the Pistons developing and morphing going forward, if Cade and Ivey are the starting backcourt, and either Bogey or Bey is a starting forward, I want size, length and athleticism at the two power positions. The Eastern Conference power forwards include Freak, Durant, Tatum, John Collins, Evan Mobley, Siakam. The better teams in the East have big men to deal with, and not just at the center position. In order for the Pistons to take a real step towards contending, they need some size and athleticism up front. Saddiq Bey, unfortunately, feels like the logical guy to put on the bench. If we could get a 23 year old Anthony Davis, that’s the prototype PF that would really make this team scary going forward. Hard to find, but I know it’s not Saddiq. 

[Betrayer]

Yes, of course this team needs more athleticism and length at the forward and center positions. Everyone would love to have someone that can guard Siakam, Mobley or Giannis. But Bagley + Duren doesn't solve that. Bagley is a bad defender, regardless of his length. And when I say bad, I mean REALLY bad. Even with his size issues, Stew is 10x the defender Bagley is. He's also a better rebounder on both ends of the court and a better shot blocker. 

On top of that, the combo of Bagley and Duren kills your offensive spacing. Cade won't be scoring anything when 2+ guys are waiting to block his shot in the lane on every position. One of those big men has to be able to spread out to the corner three to make space in the lane. Stew projects as that guy over Bagley.

I'm 100% with you on bringing more size into the starting lineup, but you have to keep Bagley and Duren separate. They're both Centers and in today's NBA you don't play two Centers who can't shoot together. Weaver's vision is that Stew and Duren are your starting big men, so we need to try that out and let Stew shoot his way into that Grant Williams role (they referenced Al Horford in the presser, but to me that's a bit of a stretch for Stew).

Maybe we get lucky in the draft or find a way to use our cap space on a Forward that offers spacing, athleticism, defense, and finishing at the rim...but until then, this is the our best shot at fixing some of the issues we have.

1st Unit: Cade, Ivey, Bogey, Stew, Duren - Good theoretical/eventual shooting from 4 out of 5 of them, better size, better interior defense, better rebounding, better athleticism.

2nd Unit: CoJo (or preferably Cade/Ivey staggered), Burks, Bey, Livers, Bagley - Again, 4 out of 5 of them are projected as decent spacers. The defense of that unit will be terrible, but that's ok because they should be able to score well against other teams second units and that can be their identity.

[Deleterious]

 

[boogiebunz]

Bagley is not the answer at PF to defend the likes of Freak or Collins or Tatum. I'm not suggesting he's the answer. But he provides better length and if those elite PFs miss, he helps rebound the miss. Bey and Bogey certainly can't guard those types either and they as a forward tandem hurt team rebounding. Bagley replacing either (likely Bey) helps rebounding. He helps interior scoring. One of the issues with this team offense is it is very, even overly reliant on jumpshooting and one-on-one isolation by Cade, Ivey, and sometimes Bey and Bogey. But none of those guys are an automatic bucket one-on-one the likes of say Luka or Tatum or Durant. The offense will still stall at times.

Even with Cade flashing great ability now and then and even with Bogey surprisingly good one-on-one off the dribble against lesser man defenders, it's not always a high percentage scoring opportunity. Bagley gives the starting unit a guy they can give the ball to in the midpost and get a high percentage shot when jumpers aren't falling and the offense goes on a drought.

I think you mistake spacing for offensive players being spread apart. That's only part of the equation. That actual spacing is irrelevant if the defenders don't respect it. Isaiah Stewart has been a willing three point shooter. He's even made some threes, some big time threes. Defenders still play 10+ feet off of him. If defenders don't respect Stewart's three, the actual spacing means nothing because the defense isn't also spaced. Stewart has to not only be willing to shoot threes but also make something like at least 35% from three for that shooting to be significant enough to make the defense respect it. Otherwise, it's not really creating spacing. A willing 27% three point shooter does not create spacing. That's Josh Smith. And defenses are thankful when they shoot the three.

Basketball has been around for a long time and playing with two big men can still work in today's game of three point shooting and pace. Cade at the strong side elbow, Bagley in the strong side midpost with a two man game. Bogdanovic weakside elbow, Ivey weakside corner and working the baseline, Duren setting picks for those two off the ball. And then he gets in the mix for offensive boards.

There's give and take obviously, pros and cons. But four out or five out is not the only way to play offense today. In fact, that might be better than the heavy Cade or Ivey iso while the other four guys stand and watch. You can create spacing with two non shooters at PF/C. The four time championship Warriors start a non shooting PF/C tandem in Draymond and Looney. 

[Betrayer]

Let's not compare Casey's offense to the Warriors. Not only do they have the best shooter of all time, they have constant movement, screening, and passing - both on ball and off. They shift the defense because it's difficult to handle that kind of movement and Curry demands a double when he's coming off those screens. And then they make it even harder for you with their "Death Lineup" that has Green at Center, not PF, for even more spacing.

The reason you see the Pistons reliant on jumpshots and one-on-one moves is because that is Casey's hero-ball offense and it always has been. A few DHOs that don't shift the defense at all, then you have a low shot clock and the guy with the ball calling for a screen to make a desperation play. Playing two Centers is going to make that even worse.

The days of "spacing" with a big man standing at the mid-post, another big setting a screen at the elbow, and a guard trying to work the middle is over. That's SVG thinking. On top of that, we don't have the players to finish in that kind of traffic (just ask Cade about the Pacers game). Playing 2 bigs that can't shoot didn't work 5 years ago and it will work even less now.

And again, Stew is a better defender, rebounder, offensive rebounder, and shot blocker - the stats back this statement up, it's not just the eye test. Putting him next to Duren makes you a way better defensive and rebounding team than using Bagley in that role. If you were arguing for putting Bagley with Stew in the starting lineup, you'd have a better argument (although I prefer Duren in there), but Duren+Bagley is a mess. Bagley off the bench next to a shooter allows him to do the only thing he's actually good at - get some buckets near the rim mostly from being in the dunker spot on a spread court. 

And if people don't want to guard Stew, that's fine - it's a wide open shot for a guy who's becoming a better shooter. He's not there yet, but this is a developmental season. Let him shoot those wide open shots for 20 games and let's see where we're at. My guess is he'll shoot over 33% (he's 31.5% for his career) and I'll take 1 point per possession from a developing shooter rather than watching Bagley, Duren, and Cade (or Ivey) trip over each other with three defenders packing the paint.

[boogiebunz]

22 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Let's not compare Casey's offense to the Warriors. Not only do they have the best shooter of all time, they have constant movement, screening, and passing - both on ball and off. They shift the defense because it's difficult to handle that kind of movement and Curry demands a double when he's coming off those screens. And then they make it even harder for you with their "Death Lineup" that has Green at Center, not PF, for even more spacing.

The reason you see the Pistons reliant on jumpshots and one-on-one moves is because that is Casey's hero-ball offense and it always has been. A few DHOs that don't shift the defense at all, then you have a low shot clock and the guy with the ball calling for a screen to make a desperation play. Playing two Centers is going to make that even worse.

The days of "spacing" with a big man standing at the mid-post, another big setting a screen at the elbow, and a guard trying to work the middle is over. That's SVG thinking. On top of that, we don't have the players to finish in that kind of traffic (just ask Cade about the Pacers game). Playing 2 bigs that can't shoot didn't work 5 years ago and it will work even less now.

And again, Stew is a better defender, rebounder, offensive rebounder, and shot blocker - the stats back this statement up, it's not just the eye test. Putting him next to Duren makes you a way better defensive and rebounding team than using Bagley in that role. If you were arguing for putting Bagley with Stew in the starting lineup, you'd have a better argument (although I prefer Duren in there), but Duren+Bagley is a mess. Bagley off the bench next to a shooter allows him to do the only thing he's actually good at - get some buckets near the rim mostly from being in the dunker spot on a spread court. 

And if people don't want to guard Stew, that's fine - it's a wide open shot for a guy who's becoming a better shooter. He's not there yet, but this is a developmental season. Let him shoot those wide open shots for 20 games and let's see where we're at. My guess is he'll shoot over 33% (he's 31.5% for his career) and I'll take 1 point per possession from a developing shooter rather than watching Bagley, Duren, and Cade (or Ivey) trip over each other with three defenders packing the paint.

-I didn’t compare Golden State’s offense to Casey’s offense. Nor am I oblivious to the difference in talent and personnel in general of the two teams, let alone Curry’s ability as the best shooter in NBA history. I was just providing an example of two non spacing, non jumpshooting bigs in a starting line-up. You want another, look no further than the Pistons opponent tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers with two non jump shooting big men, Mobley and Allen. And their offense is humming along just fine with them using Mobley as a part time facilitator and Allen almost exclusively a screen setter and finisher/offensive rebounder.

-there are teams that still use big men in the midpost or high post to create spacing different than just four out or five out. Teams like Phoenix and Denver, good offensive teams, still sometimes utilize versions of a horns set with double high post bigs and create action off of that. Now obviously, when your bigs can also shoot, it makes it even more dangerous, but there are ways to play offense using the midpost and high post where the bigs don’t have to be three point threats.

-playing two non shooting centers can work (let’s watch how the Cavs run their offense tonight) if you don’t just play isolation basketball one-on-one, drive and kick, which like 80% of the league now often reverts to for a big chunk of their halfcourt sets, thanks in large part to the likes of Darryl Morey and the James Harden Rockets. Two non shooting centers can work if you install an offense where players do more than just stand and watch and wait for the kick out three.

-Stew is the better defender, but he and Bagley are comparable rebounders. Statistics are important, but context is also important. Stewart has often been the only interior rebounder for the Pistons, playing next to a couple small forwards in the frontcourt. He’s often the only one banging down low against opposing bigs. Bagley had played mostly PF in Sacramento playing alongside true centers like Willie Caulie Stein and Holmes. Context matters. I’m not suggesting he’s a better rebounder than Stewart. But I believe they’re comparable, regardless what the statistics say in and of themselves only without context. And Bagley is a more explosive jumper and a better, quicker second jumper. Stewart uses strength and position, which doesn’t always help against much taller guys who can jump higher. Bagley can jump with some of those types.

-and I wasn’t arguing Bagley over Stewart anyway. I specifically talked about Bagley replacing Saddiq Bey. I don’t hate a Stewart and Duren duo, I just prefer to see what Bagley and Duren would do as a frontcourt tandem more. And here’s why. Stewart is not a scoring threat, not from three even when he shoots it, not down low in the post, not as an iso player or a pick and roll finisher, not a high percentage one anyway. Your initial argument for spacing doesn’t make sense with Stewart either, because even as he’s been willing to shoot the three, defenses do not respect it. And he’s not efficient enough for them to. Even if he makes 1 or 2 of them in a game, teams will still play off, still shade towards guys like Cade, Bogey, Bey, still double and leave Stewart open. Him shooting threes doesn’t actually create any better spacing, which was the basis of your argument. With Bagley, at least he’s a scoring threat in the post. He’s a capable scorer down low that demands the other team play defense on him. And while it’s not all the way out to the three point line, they aren’t simply going to leave him wide open. Bagley in the post may even create better spacing than Stewart at the three point line.

injust really disagree with the notion that Stewart provides better spacing than Bagley would. Teams don’t even defend Stewart.

[Betrayer]

21 hours ago, boogiebunz said:

Two non shooting centers can work if you install an offense where players do more than just stand and watch and wait for the kick out three.

Did I miss the part where we moved on from Casey as our head coach?

[boogiebunz]

Stewart in the starting line-up is not better for the offense regardless of what offense they run, Casey's or otherwise. When Bagley played last season, he still posted up, still ran pickandroll, still was a scoring threat... in Casey's offense.

Stewart in Casey's offense still offers no real scoring threat other than "hey, shoot the occasional three since opposing teams don't even guard you." That doesn't help create spacing. That doesn't help the offense.

 

[buddha]

fellas, no need to fight.  just go watch some wembanyama tapes and dream about next year.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

fellas, no need to fight.  just go watch some wembanyama tapes and dream about next year.

why would I dream about a guy playing for the Lakers?

 

[casimir]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

why would I dream about a guy playing for the Lakers?

 

How is Wembanyama going to end up with the Lakers?

[Deleterious]

Pistons get the #1 pick. Lakers trade us Westbrook for the #1 pick.

[RandyMarsh]

9 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Pistons get the #1 pick. Lakers trade us Westbrook for the #1 pick.

Lakers then proceed to take Bronny James with the first pick at Lebron's request. 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

fellas, no need to fight.  just go watch some wembanyama tapes and dream about next year.

I would love to REALIZE the dream of a Wemba-Duren-pick-your-SF frontcourt...

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, casimir said:

How is Wembanyama going to end up with the Lakers?

It's the draft and the Pistons.

[Deleterious]

The Pelicans have the right to swap places with the Lakers in this year's draft.  So if LA does get the #1 pick it would actually go to New Orleans.