1984Echoes

I think (to me) it's less a "should have kept them in AAA" and more along the lines of: try the new guy, and if he struggles in MLB, send him back down and "next man up". I don't care if the team struggles. Quit pretending the rebuild is over (message to Ilitch/ Hinch/ Avila) and start filtering through all the new guys or potential new guys to see what sticks/ or needs more seasoning. Grossman/ Schoop/ Barnhart/ Cabrera/ etc. are not a part of our next playoff team. So... Start filtering.

This type of stuff is annoying. Especially when trying out the new is EXACTLY what they should be doing. Until we make the playoffs, the rebuild is NOT over. I think Avila is so desperate for wins, and that means Hinch and Ilitch too... that they are making short term stupid decisions instead of long term team building decisions.

No... sorry... This system looks different to me than 6 years ago. It's not just the names. You can call it faith if that's what you want to... But the talent level, or even just the possibilities in that talent level, especially compared to 6 years ago... looks much more higher end than 6 years ago. Really, I think there's no comparison.

I think you also asked the question "when" Cas... Since I am stating that the team build is coming in the future (started the past few years, even if agonizingly slow...). So: How the heck would I know? It's already been pretty chaotic. There are probably a few key issues right now hanging over their heads, with more to come: (A) Greene & Tork have to conquer their learning curves (MLB pitching), which they haven't done yet. Obviously that's a big key. I'm going to say that they have drastic improvements at the plate all through 2023. May even see some of it to close out this year. But by season 2024, what they show in MLB as hitters will be what they are for the prime of their career. Major improvements next year, 2024+ is who they are. (B) The pitching has to sort itself out. It looks to me like we have enough arms to admirably fill out a rotation, and more arms are coming that I believe in (Olson/ Flores/ etc...); but, who can actually remain healthy? Who gets pushed into middle relief, or gets stuck at AAA waiting for their shot, does anyone get pushed into being a late reliever/ closer? And how much learning curve is yet to come for each of these guys to reach their best level? Can anyone rise to a high end star/ superstar (Ace) level? Or do we end up with five #3 starters (not great, not terrible)? What is the timing of all of this? I think we can put together some great pitching here... but it's also the grayest area of the team, because... it's pitchers. (C) I think there are other contributors coming up who can fill out the team. Maybe no high end talent, but secondary guys who can be starters (I believe in Wenceel Perez still, and Dillon Dingler, etc...), the Matt Joyce's and Jason Thompson's and Lance Parrish's that are still needed to fill out a team. How many guys made their debut this year? 6? 7? 8? I've completely lost count... but a lot. We'll see who sticks out of that group. There will be more coming in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Again, who sticks? This is also a gray area, but again, it's coming. And NOT in a Winter Is Coming type of way. That's just my POV. I can't give a CLEAR answer on the "when" question because I'm not Nostradamus, and these are MLB prospects after all... But it also looks to me like we will be sorting through all these new kids coming up like, right now. Which is what we have already been doing this year with all these kids. Due to the injuries and such. But there are plenty more "on the cusp" guys trying to break through to MLB, and should be able to do so in the next 3 years. AA or higher, right now, and either flourishing or at least showing they still have a chance to make it all the way: Kerry Carpenter (Cody Ross?), Wenceel Perez, Wilmer Flores, Reese Olson, Kreidler is back in AAA but is struggling compared to last year's really nice year in AAA although I never thought of him as more than a utility guy or sometimes starter (in a pinch) but.. still need a couple guys like him as well, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Chance Kirby, Austin Bergner... Also, Navigato and Lipcius are raking this year and have reached the higher levels... and may prove to be nothing more than AAAA guys or bench guys in MLB, at best... but a team needs a few of those guys too.. But I think we will see most of those guys on that short list just above, in MLB, over the next 2 years. On the flipside: Just can NOT seem to solve AA pitching and therefore high degree possibility of flopping out (and was "supposed" to have a high hit tool when drafted): Daniel Cabrera. But then again, that was Parker Meadows last year, and he "fixed" something in his swing and has made major improvements this year, in AA. He was Mendoza/ Rey Rivera before this... now maybe he has a chance? Again, who knows, but was most definitely flopping out prior to this year.

The analysis was fine. I wouldn't sweat the minor flaws. I think the drafted WAR for the Tigers will be going way up over the next few years.

There's no pretzel logic in there whatsoever. Describe what you think is pretzel logic please...

Well the biggest point I was trying to make with that list is that 6 years ago, I think that list would have been drastically shorter, and the talent weaker. I get the distribution part of it. But I think this farm system's talent compared to 6 years ago, and the quantity of lottery tickets that are currently in the system compared to 6 years ago, means that the distribution still favors multiple MLB contributors making it to the team. Maybe not the highest end talent (since Tork & Greene & Mize & Manning already graduated), but the other contributors that are needed to fill out a team like Matt Joyce, Cody Ross, Dave Rozema, Jason Thompson, etc... Guys who might be traded, or kept, depending on the building of a competitive team, but still, guys that are able to play in MLB, even if they aren't the stars or superstars of the league. Still need those guys to fill out a team. And 1 or 2 may even surprise on the upside. I guess I was not comparing our potential distribution to other teams, but only against the distribution itself. If we have 5 or 6 guys, or 8, currently in our system that make it to MLB as contributors, whether as utility guys or starters, then it may be enough to mostly fill out a future Tigers team. Any weaknesses filled in with FA's and trades. That may be "weak" comparative to other teams if they have as you say a short list of significant list of potential big leaguers that they can plan around... But with that amount of lottery tickets... maybe I shouldn't say that we don't have a weak system but rather, we have a lot of depth that (hopefully) should result in a fair amount of MLB contributors for the team. One last point: If you are saying we have no list whatsoever of that high end talent.. are you completely down on Jackson Jobe, Josh Jung, Ty Madden, Roberto Campos, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequira, Izaac Pacheco, etc...? You feel that none of them have high end talent? Just asking... Or do they have high end talent, it's just not as high end as other systems?

I would like to test this theory... Because: A) If our system is quite bad right now, as you say, then we cannot expect more than a couple of guys from the following list to make it to MLB. B) If however, 3 or more from the following list can conceivably make it to MLB, and be productive, (you can change it to 4 or 5... pick whatever number you want), then we do NOT have a weak system, just a lot of young talented guys that will take a while to develop... which is what I am saying. So if you would indulge me (or anyone else who wants to take a shot at this)... out of the following list of prospects, who has NO chance of ever making it to MLB, for more than a cup, simply because they are not talented enough to do so. If you can NOT take them off this list as having no chance whatsoever.. then that means exactly what I've said... they have the talent, the potential... but have to go through the development process/ their learning curves to make it all the way. Short story: If they have a chance, they have the talent. If they just don't have the talent (Org guys or worse), they don't have a chance. (Aside from an emergency/ cup of coffee, or similar... which doesn't count.) If a guy might only put up a 4 or 5 WAR career (4th OF'er, utility guy, reliever...) that still counts. So who on the following list has absolutely NO chance of ever making it to MLB: Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

That... And since Baddoo is STILL struggling as of right now... make the switch and kill two birds: Give Kerry his chance... and get Baddoo back into AAA to work on his swing... Or is that too logical?

I'd love to get some Cody Ross or Matt Joyce out of him... Or at least frickin' give him that chance...

6 runs?!?!

Awesome... I'll go look... But also... "don't increase at all in the top 3" means that once a team starts falling OUT of the top 3 those odds start to decrease, correct? (before I go take a look for the answer myself...).

Apparently they were... And Hill is even gutting out a pretty decent start...

The flipside is... You are not wrong on multiple points in here. Can't project trades or FA's because who knows what the future holds for either of these; they are just too much of an unknown. But the flipside is... if you have a healthy farm system, then if there is a position weakness in the future, a team can either spend some money on a key free agent, or have the right prospects to trade for a key player... like Miggy or the just completed Soto trade. I don't think we have the right prospects - today - for that. But What I also mean by what I just said is that so many of our potential "upside" prospects in our pipeline are 18-20 and just drafted or just coming over to the US from the International Leagues that they still have to develop into viable prospects for the Tigers or as potential trade prospects. On prospect surprises or player flameouts... also 100% correct. It is more a simple exercise, or "list", of "upside" prospects. Without regard to flameouts or surprises. However, the flipside to that is... If we only had one or two guys that we were really relying on to "make it", to MLB, to be a potential "impact" players... we'd have a very weak, talent-deficient system. Top heavy. I don't think we have a weak, talent-deficient system. I think we have an exceedingly young system. That puts more risk on the development side, and the possibility of a lot of flameouts. But it also says we have a boatload of lottery tickets that we hope several WILL make it through the system and up in MLB. Or to be used as trade ammunition. And I believe the list I threw out there (not every guy on there has a high upside.. some are just Org players... but on the flipside, there IS a lot of high-end talent on that list... which is now on the Tigers Development team to actually develop them...). And it's not like we don't have ANY talent in the system. In fact, we DO have a lot of talent in the system. High end talent. A LOT of it. It's just that a whole lot of that high end talent is, just, very very young. I prefer our system as is. With a crapload of high-end upside talent... and young... than our 1980's, 1990's, and 2010's barren systems. It took Avila too long to fix our farm system... but I think it's different now. It's better. It's loaded. Even if it takes a bit of time to see it as fruitful as we want to see it. And I would just like to point all that out. That's my flipside.

Prior post in Ref to this one of course...

Can we, please? I'll bet we could come up with a quick list of names that we would LOVE to trade for Griner and Whelan, and a couple others unfairly trapped by Russia... Including: Alex Jones (just because he's a grotesque MF'er), Jeannine Pirro, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump, Tulsi Gabbard, Laura Ingraham... and other assorted Benedict Arnold Traitors to the Constitution of the United States. Seems like a fair trade to me...

Dare I say...? Dems kicking ass?

True statement.

Russia's kidnapping of 1.6 million Ukrainians to force-convert them into Russians: https://www.yahoo.com/news/inside-russia-kafka-esque-mass-083330173.html

= our next Lou Whitaker.

Wenceel Perez.

Time will tell who is wrong on this...

That's today. Which says nothing about tomorrow (you know... "wait till next year!!!").

Late bloomer. Like JD Martinez.

I'll let you know after the 2025 season. Bet you can't wait for that!!! Especially because there will be 3 more Avila's worth of draft picks on their way!!!