it is perfectly rational to say: I am not signing Skubal to a 10/400 contract.
The risk is real that he gets injured at some point and that is a massive amount of dead money on the payroll, which could very well be crippling for the team.
The NYY got super lucky that Gerrit Cole (after making just 17 starts in 2024 due to injuries) opted out of his contract last winter, and the Yankees got to avoid the riskiest years of the contract, ages 34-38. Instead, NYY made the awful decision to let Cole undo the opt out when Boras found no market. The result: Cole had TJ surgery in March and is looking at a May 2026 return. 1.5 years of nothing, followed by ? level of performance at 35.