4hzglory

One plus, with that is the prorating of contracts, so if they're 100 games in thats only 38% of the deal. The other key one is Valdez's contract won't have the $38 mil aav, we don't know what it will be, but it's know there are deferrals. So they will have a bit more til they are at the tax.

I'm curious as to what his actual AAV is once the deferrals are revealed.

Look for Skenes to get traded in the next 2 years.

And last year they had settled on the $10 ish million number after he won the cy young, so it's not like he just became a great pitcher. From Boras/Skubal (his position with the PA) this is all about attempting to raise the ceiling. It's a bit of a risk, as if he would lose, it would show the strength of the process from the owner's side. It would have been nice if Boras was willing to negotiate at all. Then Skubal could have received a record for an arbitration pitcher (the Tigers initial offer would have been that at $19.8) and probably received a record & and percentage of raise. But they're aiming for higher.

I don't think it's going to be chaos. I think it's going to be Keith's to lose.

I think it's more likely that waiting until now makes it easier to drag along the physical until they can put Jobe on the 60-day DL and free up a roster spot than it has anything to do with the date of the arbitration hearing.

I agree. I do have reasonable faith 3b can be league average with Keith hopefully getting the majority of playing time, but having Vieriling, and McKinstry among others. And I don't think there needs to be improvement in Vierling other than health. If healthy, I'd be surprised if he's far off from 2024 and that would be a large overall improvement over what Ibanez or Jones brought.

The question the arbitrator's decide is if he is worth more or less than $25,500,000 compared to other arbitration cases which factors in precedence for both previous pitchers ($19.8 is current high) and percentage of raise among other things. If its $25,500,001, Skubal gets $32 mil. If it's $25,499,999, he gets $19 mil.

However, he is asking for a $21 mil raise (basically 3 times last year's salary) which is by far the record both in percent and $. For comparison, Soto received an $8 mil raise which was just under 35%.

I agree. For optics, I do wish they would come in with a number beginning in 2, but it they started at $19.8 in pre arb negotiations and were supposedly willing to move, but Boras wouldn't negotiate at all. So they filed at $19

Exactly. This is why they will not waste his innings in Toledo.

If healthy I’d think they would want to get as many Detroit innings out of Olson as possible as he hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy and why waste any of his #2-3 quality innings at Toledo.

If healthy I think it’s Olson and not much of a fight. This puts them in a much better position next year. They can offer the QO to Flaherty and Mize if they’re similar to even 2025 and have Jobe back as well.

I agree. Barring spring injuries, I think it almost guarantees Anderson is in the pen. I do think Melton likely starts in Toledo in that case, unless they think he helps them more in the pen than as the first option for an injury.

You forgot Mize

Also still have SGL and Montero in Toledo for more depth. All of a sudden the rotation looks/staff looks really solid. And barring catastrophic injuries allows them to take there time with Jobe when he’s back pitching

Not positive, but I don’t think Anderson can be sent to Toledo.

I get why they went for it, but can see either way. I think he was dumb not to go for 2 on the last TD. They don’t get it, you still need a touchdown to win, but if they got it, a FG would have tied it.

I do think Hooker was drafted as a potential cheaper replacement if he developed and Goff didn't do what he has the last 3 seasons. Not that they "doubted" Goff, but Goff has taken his game to another level since the time Hooker was drafted. The offense being tailored to him has been huge, but at the time there was a reason for uncertainty as to if Goff was going to make sense to sign to the extension he ended up getting.

Exactly. It makes no sense for the Dodgers to give up Sasaki, Rushing, and Hope for a player they have proven they don't need to win and who they can just sign next year.

He can look for all he wants. If teams aren't willing to go 10 years at $40-50/yr (which they weren't for Tucker), then he may have to decide if he wants a shorter term $50-60/yr deal or a 10 year $30-35/yr deal

I agree he'd probably prefer that, but if Tucker and Bichette couldn't get long term deals they wanted (Tucker was supposedly offered 10/$350), then who is to say the teams that would spend $50/yr would be willing to go 8 years on Skubal for the very reason you said (Age).

I don't see how Tucker having to sign a shorter deal makes it more likely Skubal gets 10. He may be more likely to get 5 years $300 than previously thought (still think that is unlikely) but I think this offseason (Tucker & Bichette) has shown it's less likely he gets 10 years.

Call us the SEC

The NFL does have a firm cap. It can be manipulated via signing bonuses, but there is a cap teams cannot go over.