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Lamar Jackson to the Lions?


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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

And yet the numbers don't say that at all. 

it depend what numbers you choose to look at.  if you add up things like "yards" then they probably look similar, but lamar jackson is a former league mvp.  his best season was much much better than jared goff's best season.

the issue with lamar's performance is his decline from that amazing season and then very good season the next year.  since then, he's had two very average seasons.  will he ever get back to his league mvp level?

but make no mistake, having a dual threat qb with a gun for an arm who played at that level opens up a lot more opportunities for an offense.  more than what a non-mobile qb with pocket presence that comes and goes can provide.

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4 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Jackson is a better runner...that adds a dimension.  Is it worth the picks and cash ( probably a pick because Goff should get you at least 1 first round pick) 

I do not know...I'm on the fence

Yes, the dimension it adds is a few extra first downs in fall, a few missed games in winter, and physical breakdown after a few seasons of accumulated hits. 

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4 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Yes, the dimension it adds is a few extra first downs in fall, a few missed games in winter, and physical breakdown after a few seasons of accumulated hits. 

it doesnt "just add a few extra first downs," it opens up an entirely new dimension to the offense because the defense now has to account for the qb as a runner.

this is not to say you cant win with a pocket passer.  in fact, you have to be able to pass out of the pocket to win in the nfl.  but being able to pass AND run is good thing, not a bad thing.  and not a marginal thing either.

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lamar jackson's 2019 was the fourth highest qbr season since 2006 (qbr stats only go back to 2006) and the third highest season in Approximate Value of all time.

he was a transformational, generational talent at quarterback.  

again, the issue is he has never repeated it.  can he do it?  if he can, then giving up two first round picks for him is a no-brainer.

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6 minutes ago, buddha said:

it depend what numbers you choose to look at.  if you add up things like "yards" then they probably look similar, but lamar jackson is a former league mvp.  his best season was much much better than jared goff's best season.

the issue with lamar's performance is his decline from that amazing season and then very good season the next year.  since then, he's had two very average seasons.  will he ever get back to his league mvp level?

but make no mistake, having a dual threat qb with a gun for an arm who played at that level opens up a lot more opportunities for an offense.  more than what a non-mobile qb with pocket presence that comes and goes can provide.

And yet that non-mobile QB led one of the best offenses in the NFL last year. He led one of the best offenses with the Rams. Jackson having a much better year is debatable. One thing that isn't is that in Goff's best year he wasn't one and done in the playoffs. Anyways, here are their two best years:

image.thumb.png.d52cf3caf0c460797e496ffd7a651d28.png

image.thumb.png.5c94bc78cf6c21a7a4b9bc6afacff333.png

One QB was ran out of town and his team paid a 1st round draft pick to make him go away. The other wants the most guaranteed money in history and cost two 1st round picks.

image.thumb.png.bb1eb148bf7bd00d346d1737998a76e0.png

image.thumb.png.7c4998bf63f07c06640a339e9ce3949f.png

When you account for Jackson's rushing advantage, Goff still provides on average more TDs and more yards. He's been a more productive QB.

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3 minutes ago, buddha said:

lamar jackson's 2019 was the fourth highest qbr season since 2006 (qbr stats only go back to 2006) and the third highest season in Approximate Value of all time.

he was a transformational, generational talent at quarterback.  

again, the issue is he has never repeated it.  can he do it?  if he can, then giving up two first round picks for him is a no-brainer.

Of course he can't. You can't expect a QB to rush for 1,200 yards every season. 

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The fact that Lamar Jackson has the added dimension of mobility to his game is not reason enough to trade Jared Goff for him when Goff produced better stats than the guy did. What good is mobility if you're still getting outscored by the offense lead by the less mobile QB? Sure, Lamar Jackson's mobility is enticing and adds something unique to this offense. However, if I'm still getting more offensive productivity and points overall out of Goff than I am keeping him versus surrendering the capital it will take to get a guy I will potentially get less offensive productivity out of in Lamar Jackson. Points get you wins and if I get more of them under Goff than Lamar than I don't care as much if he's a statue in the pocket. Give me Goff and the two 1sts versus Lamar.

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4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

And yet that non-mobile QB led one of the best offenses in the NFL last year. He led one of the best offenses with the Rams. Jackson having a much better year is debatable. One thing that isn't is that in Goff's best year he wasn't one and done in the playoffs. Anyways, here are their two best years:

image.thumb.png.d52cf3caf0c460797e496ffd7a651d28.png

image.thumb.png.5c94bc78cf6c21a7a4b9bc6afacff333.png

One QB was ran out of town and his team paid a 1st round draft pick to make him go away. The other wants the most guaranteed money in history and cost two 1st round picks.

image.thumb.png.bb1eb148bf7bd00d346d1737998a76e0.png

image.thumb.png.7c4998bf63f07c06640a339e9ce3949f.png

When you account for Jackson's rushing advantage, Goff still provides on average more TDs and more yards. He's been a more productive QB.

goff's best year is not close to lamar's best year.  goff's best year is about the same as lamar's follow up year. 

i dont think you would disagree with that.

jared goff was not a good qb his last year in LA and his first year with detroit.  lamar jackson was not a good qb this year and hasnt come close to the heights of 2019 since then.  

ben johnson revived jared goff's career, what could he do with lamar jackson's?

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1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

The fact that Lamar Jackson has the added dimension of mobility to his game is not reason enough to trade Jared Goff for him when Goff produced better stats than the guy did. What good is mobility if you're still getting outscored by the offense lead by the less mobile QB? Sure, Lamar Jackson's mobility is enticing and adds something unique to this offense. However, if I'm still getting more offensive productivity and points overall out of Goff than I am keeping him versus surrendering the capital it will take to get a guy I will potentially get less offensive productivity out of in Lamar Jackson. Points get you wins and if I get more of them under Goff than Lamar, I don't care as much if he's a statue in the pocket.

how do you know you can get more wins with goff than jackson?  we dont.

you've seen what ben johnson did with goff, what could he do with lamar?  

i dont know.  and again, i dont want to trade for lamar jackson, but the idea that goff played 8 great games last year means we never need to think about upgrading the qb position is short sighted, imo.

lamar is too expensive and too much of a health risk for this team to do that.

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1 minute ago, buddha said:

goff's best year is not close to lamar's best year.  goff's best year is about the same as lamar's follow up year. 

i dont think you would disagree with that.

jared goff was not a good qb his last year in LA and his first year with detroit.  lamar jackson was not a good qb this year and hasnt come close to the heights of 2019 since then.  

ben johnson revived jared goff's career, what could he do with lamar jackson's?

And Lamar Jackson got rolled 28-12 by Ryan Tannehill in the playoffs. When Tennessee forced him to be a pocket passer he failed. Basically you're clinging to a hope that Jackson will be the QB he was 4 years ago when he setting all time records in rushing yards. At the end of the day, Goff on average produces more yards and TDs than Jackson and can stay on the field. 

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1 minute ago, buddha said:

how do you know you can get more wins with goff than jackson?  we dont.

you've seen what ben johnson did with goff, what could he do with lamar?  

i dont know.  and again, i dont want to trade for lamar jackson, but the idea that goff played 8 great games last year means we never need to think about upgrading the qb position is short sighted, imo.

lamar is too expensive and too much of a health risk for this team to do that.

I know that you can get more points with Goff because of the stats MB posted above. Goff from 2021-2022 was more productive and scored more on offense than Lamar did during his peak in 2019-2021.

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I do think there is something to be said that the Ravens of all teams are seemingly pushing him out of the door instead of giving him the money he wants. 

Keep in mind too that "all" they have to do is give him the money, another team has to give him the money plus assets of atleast two first round picks. 

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15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Of course he can't. You can't expect a QB to rush for 1,200 yards every season. 

and it's a least a little bit of a false comparison isn't it? A dual threat QB runs up big offensive AV stats, but it's a bit of zero sum game because it's only a function of his higher use rate. If he runs for 20yds, that's 20 yds one of his receivers or RBs doesn't add to his total. So I'm not that impressed is a dual threat QB can put up a huge AV because he's not necessarily adding that to his team total as opposed to subtracting it from other players totals if he were a more successfull passer. 

"Escapability" I do like, but being a QB that actually runs for a lot of yards is not the only way to get that. A guy who has a good sense of how and when to step up, or even one who is big and strong enough and has a good first step to fight off first contact (i.e.Rothlesburger type) can give you a lot of the same value without rushing for >500yrd.

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For those that want Lamar or are open to the idea of ditching Goff for him, do you expect that Lamar will become more productive under Ben Johnson than Goff has been? Will the productivity that you get from Lamar exceed both Goff's play on the field and the value that the 2 1st round picks could potentially bring? As well, are you willing to immediately make Lamar Jackson the highest paid player in the league after surrendering 2 1st round picks and before he even throws a pass for you?

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5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

and it's a least a little bit of a false comparison isn't it? A dual threat QB runs up big offensive AV stats, but it's a bit of zero sum game because it's only a function of his higher use rate. If he runs for 20yds, that's 20 yds one of his receivers or RBs doesn't add to his total. So I'm not that impressed is a dual threat QB can put up a huge AV because he's not necessarily adding that to his team total as opposed to subtracting it from other players totals if he were a more successfull passer. 

"Escapability" I do like, but being a QB that actually runs for a lot of yards is not the only way to get that. A guy who has a good sense of how and when to step up, or even one who is big and strong enough and has a good first step to fight off first contact (i.e.Rothlesburger type) can give you a lot of the same value without rushing for >500yrd.

Yup, I prefer pocket passers who have a little mobility. Prime Aaron Rodgers is a perfect example. He could manipulate the pocket to find open receivers and still take off and run for a 1st down but he only did it when necessary. It's cool that Lamar Jackson can run for 1,200 yards but I would rather just hand it off to a RB. I wish Goff had a little more mobility but you can't have your cake and eat it too. 

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

For those that want Lamar or are open to the idea of ditching Goff for him, do you expect that Lamar will become more productive under Ben Johnson than Goff has been? Will the productivity that you get from Lamar exceed both Goff's play on the field and the value that the 2 1st round picks could potentially bring? As well, are you willing to immediately make Lamar Jackson the highest paid player in the league after surrendering 2 1st round picks and before he even throws a pass for you?

I think Jackson would be a little more productive on the Lions than he is with the Ravens. I think Gehringer brings up a good point. That extra production probably means less production for St Brown. Instead of throwing those quick little crossing routes, Jackson can just run with it. It may me mean fewer carries for Swift and Williams if he is re-sgined. You're basically shifting the yards around and it's a fools game to think you are going to consistently get 1,200 yards on the ground from Jackson going forward. 

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37 minutes ago, buddha said:

lamar jackson's 2019 was the fourth highest qbr season since 2006 (qbr stats only go back to 2006) and the third highest season in Approximate Value of all time.

he was a transformational, generational talent at quarterback.  

again, the issue is he has never repeated it.  can he do it?  if he can, then giving up two first round picks for him is a no-brainer.

Yes he had a transcendent season. Couldn’t replicate it. NFL defenses catch up. NFL defenders punish QBs who escape the pocket. Now he can’t finish a season and the team who built their offense around him doesn’t want to commit to him. 

Cam Newton has been the most successful hybrid, because he was big enough to withstand punishment. 

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

One thing I can't get past is that the Ravens are one of the best runs teams in the NFL. They have been playoff contenders for two straight decades. They have won two Super Bowls during that time and yet they don't seem sold on Lamar Jackson. Are we to believe the Ravens are making a huge mistake or they know something we don't know? They know there is too much risk in giving him a ton of guaranteed money. 

I believe it has to do with his demand of a fully guaranteed contract.  The rank and file of NFL owners don’t want to go there.  They didn’t like it when the Wilf’s gave Cousins the fully guaranteed deal but it was only 3 years so it didn’t really matter.  They lost their shit behind the scenes when Jimmy Haslem, one of the rouge contingent, broke rank and went on his own to give Watson a 10 year guarantee.  This is not a trend they want to see.  

The majority of owners look out for each other and try to act in the best interest of the collective.  Baltimore’s owner is definitely one of these guys and as much as he may want or need Lamar, he’s not going to act in a way to turn the league against him.   They are trying to hold the line at the moment and not make long term fully guaranteed the norm for QB’s.  

Personally, I think the toothpaste is already out of the tube.  Expect a few more of these to happen before the rest of the owners give in and finally you see the core league guys like Jerry Jones, The Rooneys, and Hunts doing it.  

Edited by Hongbit
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1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

For those that want Lamar or are open to the idea of ditching Goff for him, do you expect that Lamar will become more productive under Ben Johnson than Goff has been? Will the productivity that you get from Lamar exceed both Goff's play on the field and the value that the 2 1st round picks could potentially bring? As well, are you willing to immediately make Lamar Jackson the highest paid player in the league after surrendering 2 1st round picks and before he even throws a pass for you?

i would expect lamar to be more productive under johnson than he has been lately.

i do not want the lions to trade for lamar.  i do not want the lions to sign lamar.  

i havent seen anyone here advocate for that, but i could have missed it.

but lamar has more upside as a player than jared goff.  

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13 minutes ago, buddha said:

i would expect lamar to be more productive under johnson than he has been lately.

i do not want the lions to trade for lamar.  i do not want the lions to sign lamar.  

i havent seen anyone here advocate for that, but i could have missed it.

but lamar has more upside as a player than jared goff.  

His career peak was higher than Goff’s (to date) but I don’t think Lamar has any more upside. He is not getting faster, he is not getting more elusive, and he is not  getting more durable. 

I was at the game where RGIII broke off this 76-yard TD run. He was electric. I get why people get excited about dual threat QBs. Within a few seasons he was on the scrap heap. 

 

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Who was the last QB like Jackson to win a Super Bowl? Mahomes is mobile but he has never rushed for more than 380 yards in a season. QB runs are just not an integral part of his game. Looking at recent winners, Stafford is not mobile. Brady certainly isn't. Both Manning's were statues. Flacco was a statue. The only one that comes to mind is Russell Wilson and he was a better pocket passer than Jackson. It's just not sustainable play. 

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