Eagles at Lions

[buddha]

22 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

How is everyone feeling about Hock?  

He confuses me.  No doubt that he’s been pretty good.  Had we taken him in the 3rd round then I’d consider him a great pick.   The problem is that I don’t see him ever becoming the Kelce or Waller super athletic game changer that was expected when picking him so high.  
It’s weird, he’s not a bust but he’s a bust for where he was taken in the draft.    How do they reconcile this when he comes due for his next contract?   Does he get a pay raise even though he has underachieved his draft position and the contract that goes with it?   

typical quinn high floor/low ceiling pick at a non premium position.

the cowboys took schultz in round 5 and he's the same player basically.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

32 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

How is everyone feeling about Hock?  

He confuses me.  No doubt that he’s been pretty good.  Had we taken him in the 3rd round then I’d consider him a great pick.   The problem is that I don’t see him ever becoming the Kelce or Waller super athletic game changer that was expected when picking him so high.  
It’s weird, he’s not a bust but he’s a bust for where he was taken in the draft.    How do they reconcile this when he comes due for his next contract?   Does he get a pay raise even though he has underachieved his draft position and the contract that goes with it?   

Don't have to ask me twice. It was an awful pick then and an awful pick now. Brian Burns, Montez Sweat, Devin Bush and yeah, Ed Oliver, were guys that many of us were clamoring for on the board and across Lion fandom on the internet. I'd much rather have an edge/pass rusher like Burns or Sweat to build around than an average/above-average at best TE. The list of successful TEs taken outside the first round is long.

In spite of what this organization seems to think, the position itself, is not one of the 5-6 most important on the field. Having an edge rusher who can get you double-digit sack totals and 30-40+ tackles like Burns and Sweat can is far more valuable than a TE who is going to get you 50-60 receptions, 750 yards and 2-4 TDs a season IMO. Furthermore, Hockenson was never this generational TE that the likes of Mel Kiper tried hyping him up to be prior to the draft. He was and is not Gronk 2.0. Even if you made Aaron Rodgers his QB instead of Goff I don't think he would be. He's a Heath Miller type of player at best and probably a Kyle Rudolph at worst. Watch a few Iowa football games and you can see he was very very good, but not generationally great.

[Motown Bombers]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

How is everyone feeling about Hock?  

He confuses me.  No doubt that he’s been pretty good.  Had we taken him in the 3rd round then I’d consider him a great pick.   The problem is that I don’t see him ever becoming the Kelce or Waller super athletic game changer that was expected when picking him so high.  
It’s weird, he’s not a bust but he’s a bust for where he was taken in the draft.    How do they reconcile this when he comes due for his next contract?   Does he get a pay raise even though he has underachieved his draft position and the contract that goes with it?   

He is on pass to catch 96 passes and is still one of the better blocking TE. It's hard to evaluate when he is the only legit receiving threat and QB who refuses to throw the ball more than 10 yards. 

[sagnam]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

He is on pass to catch 96 passes and is still one of the better blocking TE. It's hard to evaluate when he is the only legit receiving threat and QB who refuses to throw the ball more than 10 yards. 

Might be why he’s on pace for 96 catches.

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

How is everyone feeling about Hock?  

He confuses me.  No doubt that he’s been pretty good.  Had we taken him in the 3rd round then I’d consider him a great pick.   The problem is that I don’t see him ever becoming the Kelce or Waller super athletic game changer that was expected when picking him so high.  
It’s weird, he’s not a bust but he’s a bust for where he was taken in the draft.    How do they reconcile this when he comes due for his next contract?   Does he get a pay raise even though he has underachieved his draft position and the contract that goes with it?   

I think he could be worthy of a low 1st round pick, like 23-32 range on a better team.  Right now he's the only real receiving threat and teams know that.  Combined with Goff as the QB and I don't think we're seeing what Hock can be.  I suspect that he'll never quite live up to high first round status.

[Hongbit]

2 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I think he could be worthy of a low 1st round pick, like 23-32 range on a better team.  Right now he's the only real receiving threat and teams know that.  Combined with Goff as the QB and I don't think we're seeing what Hock can be.  I suspect that he'll never quite live up to high first round status.

I can imagine what kind of impressive numbers he’d be putting up if he were in the situation in place of a Dawson Knox or Garrett Schultz.    It will be interesting to watch how the Lions handle him going forward from a financial situation.    My guess is they will end up paying him like one of the top 3 TE in the league even though he never will be.  
 

[Motown Bombers]

He's really not far off from being an 80 catch 1,000 yard receiver. If he were a WR, that would be fine production but since he's a TE there is an expectation that he must be among the best ever. 

[Motown Bombers]

The NFL salary cap is going to explode. It may be wise to lock Hockenson up now. Even if they make him a top 3 TE in salary now, that's likely not to be in a year or two. 

[RedRamage]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

He's really not far off from being an 80 catch 1,000 yard receiver. If he were a WR, that would be fine production but since he's a TE there is an expectation that he must be among the best ever. 

I don't think (most) people judging him based on that.  They're judging him based on the pick location... which is value when evaluating the front office, but not when evaluating the player.

As long as we understand that saying: "He's never going to be worthy of where they picked him" isn't saying he's a bad player, only that the front office was bad for picking him there -- then it's it's a fine evaluation to make. 

I think Hock is, and can be a top 10 TE for a number of years and that makes him a valuable player on a team... especially a team so devoid of talent right now. But I think it would also be very valid to say we're not getting the value from that spot in the draft that we should.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, RedRamage said:

I don't think (most) people judging him based on that.  They're judging him based on the pick location... which is value when evaluating the front office, but not when evaluating the player.

As long as we understand that saying: "He's never going to be worthy of where they picked him" isn't saying he's a bad player, only that the front office was bad for picking him there -- then it's it's a fine evaluation to make. 

I think Hock is, and can be a top 10 TE for a number of years and that makes him a valuable player on a team... especially a team so devoid of talent right now. But I think it would also be very valid to say we're not getting the value from that spot in the draft that we should.

That's what I'm getting at. If he were a WR drafted 8th and put up an 80 catch 1,000 yard season, that would likely be acceptable for that spot in the draft. Since he's a TE drafted 8th, the expectation is he should be another Kelce or Gronkowski. 

[buddha]

3 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I don't think (most) people judging him based on that.  They're judging him based on the pick location... which is value when evaluating the front office, but not when evaluating the player.

As long as we understand that saying: "He's never going to be worthy of where they picked him" isn't saying he's a bad player, only that the front office was bad for picking him there -- then it's it's a fine evaluation to make. 

I think Hock is, and can be a top 10 TE for a number of years and that makes him a valuable player on a team... especially a team so devoid of talent right now. But I think it would also be very valid to say we're not getting the value from that spot in the draft that we should.

yeah, its not that he's not a valuable player, its just that he's a solid guy and not a game breaker.

its not hockeson's fault the rest of the team has no talent at premium playmaking positions.

[Stanley70]

Yea, 80/1000 comes out to about 5 catches for 60 yards a game. He doesn't have games where he goes off.

[MichiganCardinal]

9 hours ago, Hongbit said:

How is everyone feeling about Hock?  

He confuses me.  No doubt that he’s been pretty good.  Had we taken him in the 3rd round then I’d consider him a great pick.   The problem is that I don’t see him ever becoming the Kelce or Waller super athletic game changer that was expected when picking him so high.  
It’s weird, he’s not a bust but he’s a bust for where he was taken in the draft.    How do they reconcile this when he comes due for his next contract?   Does he get a pay raise even though he has underachieved his draft position and the contract that goes with it?   

I think it's hard to compare him to Kelce or Waller, when teams are putting their #1 corner on Hock because he is all we have as a weapon. Kelce is going against linebackers while corners/deep help are focused on Hill; same to a lesser degree for Waller with Renfrow's help. The 2nd and 3rd string WRs on the Chiefs and Raiders are comparable if not outright better than whoever our top WR of the day is.

We have Hock signed through 2023 with the 5th year option. He's due for a raise regardless of his draft position though because he's coming off a rookie contract. I don't think he deserves to be the top paid tight end in the league, though his agent may ask for it.

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think it's hard to compare him to Kelce or Waller, when teams are putting their #1 corner on Hock because he is all we have as a weapon. Kelce is going against linebackers while corners/deep help are focused on Hill; same to a lesser degree for Waller with Renfrow's help. The 2nd and 3rd string WRs on the Chiefs and Raiders are comparable if not outright better than whoever our top WR of the day is.

We have Hock signed through 2023 with the 5th year option. He's due for a raise regardless of his draft position though because he's coming off a rookie contract. I don't think he deserves to be the top paid tight end in the league, though his agent may ask for it.

im fine with hock.  i think they should keep him.

but i also think he is NOT waller or kelce and never will be.  he's just not that level of athlete.  when hock gets hit, he falls down.  he's a good tight end.  that's something, but its not the player you build your team around, which is what you hope for at #8 in the draft.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

It's not just where Hock was drafted, it's who was drafted after him and the team needs we had at the time and still have. We needed an edge rusher or someone who could get after the QB in the worst way and a LB who could cover in space. Brian Burns and Montez Sweat could have been that pass rusher we needed or Devin Bush that coverage LB.

[buddha]

using career average value he currently ranks #57 in his draft class. 

to put it in perspective...jahlani tavai tanks #63.

[MichiganCardinal]

15 hours ago, buddha said:

using career average value he currently ranks #57 in his draft class. 

to put it in perspective...jahlani tavai tanks #63.

Hockenson was injured his first year and TEs traditionally take one or two years to develop before contributing on a high level. We'll see what those rankings say five seasons post-draft, but I feel that comparing Hock to Tavai is pretty extreme. I think Hockenson will be a top-five TE in the league through the prime of his career, and I think he will be one of the few members of this present team still on the team when we do turn the corner. 

To back off my defense of Hockenson though, I agree with the consensus here that he was not worth the #8 pick in that draft, just as I don't think Okudah was worth the #3 pick in his draft (injuries or not). I'm not one to "Monday Morning Quarterback" NFL drafts, because it's very easy to cherry pick who you should have picked once you see NFL success, and much much harder to accurately predict which 21-24yo kids will rise and which will flame out once in the NFL. For instance, I think the goal posts shifting from "they should pick Tua" when they picked Okudah, to "they should have picked Herbert" when Tua has busted (so far) is indicative that being a GM is harder than it seems from the couch. Yet, neither a top-tier TE nor a top-tier CB made sense in the grand scheme of where either of those teams were, and did not set us up for success today.

[RandyMarsh]

In defense of the Hock pick I think management felt that their best chance of competing was to load up on offense and outscore everybody and Hock seemed to be a great fit to complement our then solid wr corp and Stafford.

I don't think they were concerned with value or even 5 years down the road, they just wanted the player who they felt could help them get to the playoffs the following year. Dont agree with the move but I can atleast see the logic.  

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[buddha]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Hockenson was injured his first year and TEs traditionally take one or two years to develop before contributing on a high level. We'll see what those rankings say five seasons post-draft, but I feel that comparing Hock to Tavai is pretty extreme. I think Hockenson will be a top-five TE in the league through the prime of his career, and I think he will be one of the few members of this present team still on the team when we do turn the corner. 

To back off my defense of Hockenson though, I agree with the consensus here that he was not worth the #8 pick in that draft, just as I don't think Okudah was worth the #3 pick in his draft (injuries or not). I'm not one to "Monday Morning Quarterback" NFL drafts, because it's very easy to cherry pick who you should have picked once you see NFL success, and much much harder to accurately predict which 21-24yo kids will rise and which will flame out once in the NFL. For instance, I think the goal posts shifting from "they should pick Tua" when they picked Okudah, to "they should have picked Herbert" when Tua has busted (so far) is indicative that being a GM is harder than it seems from the couch. Yet, neither a top-tier TE nor a top-tier CB made sense in the grand scheme of where either of those teams were, and did not set us up for success today.

i think part of the "value" argument is that the position of tight end really isnt all that valuable unless you are a unicorn like kelce or kittle (if he's ever healthy) or gronk.

but hock isnt that type of player.  he is a good, solid contributor.  and that's good!  but if that's your best player, youre in trouble.

[Motown Bombers]

So Jacksonville may actually win this. This would be huge for the Lions. 

[Motown Bombers]

So Jacksonville beat Buffalo. Now have a 2 game lead on the Lions for the #1 pick. Miami is leading Houston which is good for Detroit because we will then want Houston to beat Jacksonville. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I was looking at Goff's stat line from the bye week . . .

12/27, 162 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT and 2 fumbles.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

On 11/4/2021 at 3:01 PM, MichiganCardinal said:

Hockenson was injured his first year and TEs traditionally take one or two years to develop before contributing on a high level. We'll see what those rankings say five seasons post-draft, but I feel that comparing Hock to Tavai is pretty extreme. I think Hockenson will be a top-five TE in the league through the prime of his career, and I think he will be one of the few members of this present team still on the team when we do turn the corner. 

To back off my defense of Hockenson though, I agree with the consensus here that he was not worth the #8 pick in that draft, just as I don't think Okudah was worth the #3 pick in his draft (injuries or not). I'm not one to "Monday Morning Quarterback" NFL drafts, because it's very easy to cherry pick who you should have picked once you see NFL success, and much much harder to accurately predict which 21-24yo kids will rise and which will flame out once in the NFL. For instance, I think the goal posts shifting from "they should pick Tua" when they picked Okudah, to "they should have picked Herbert" when Tua has busted (so far) is indicative that being a GM is harder than it seems from the couch. Yet, neither a top-tier TE nor a top-tier CB made sense in the grand scheme of where either of those teams were, and did not set us up for success today.

I think in-regards to Hockenson there were many Lions fans clamoring for a defensive player. Specifically one of Brian Burns, Devin Bush, Ed Oliver, or Montez Sweat. We can MMQB that one because it felt like the majority of the fan base was calling for a defensive player of any kind to be picked. On the Tua subject, there were a lot of fans who stated they would have been happy with Herbert at the time. So while I do think some fans revised history after the fact to they would have been happy with Herbert as well, many were on board with both at the time. I remember wanting Isiah Simmons, Tua or Herbert at the time with a strong lean towards Simmons and Tua over Herbert.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad