Trumps Presidency 2025

[Edman85]

Funny thing is I had an admittedly very arrogant (shocking!) facebook post this spring where I said something to the effect that I and other smart people tried to warn you all, maybe listen to us next time.

 

[CMRivdogs]

Big macho guys playing soldier. Nothing but snowflakes 

 

[oblong]

5 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said:

And the logical other shoe dropping…if you like him, you aren’t smart. But yeah, that won’t sink in to them.

“I don’t like country music, but I don’t mean to denigrate those who do. And for the people who like country music, denigrate means ‘put down.’” - Bob Newhart 

[pfife]

Thanks archief and Lolic 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/12/food/coffee-prices

[chasfh]

6 hours ago, smr-nj said:

But I’m sure ICE hires only the best people! The smartest!  they’re not in it for the bonus money! They’re Patriots doing their patriotic duty joining ICE, and they’re always educated! They know all about things!

Come on.

Just like their fearless leader, the orange menace….. Stupidity is preferred. Ignorance is preferred. Cruelty is the point.
Who can be surprised by any of this? Absolutely no one.

They may be stupid and ignorant about a lot of things, but when it comes to exercising cruelty, those ICErs are as smart and knowledgeable and resourceful about how to do so as required by the job.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, pfife said:

Thanks archief and Lolic 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/12/food/coffee-prices

Just in case they refuse to click through:

 

Coffee drinkers are in for a jolt long before their first sip.

Retail coffee prices in the United States in August jumped nearly 21% compared to the same month last year — the largest annual jump since October 1997, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, released Thursday. On a monthly basis, coffee prices rose 4%, the most in 14 years.

Coffee drinkers have President Donald Trump’s tariffs to blame, in part. The United States is largest importer of coffee in the world and it relies on foreign countries for the beans, given there are very few places it can grow domestically. Nearly all – 99% – of coffee consumed in the United States is imported, according to the National Coffee Association.

One of the most heavily-tariffed countries is Brazil, which is the United States’ top source for coffee, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Brazilian imports face 50% tariffs, among the highest that the US levies on any country’s goods, because of Trump’s anger over the trial and recent conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, predicts coffee prices “will easily exceed the record as the full effects of the 50% tariffs levied on Brazil last month work their way onto store shelves.”

Other coffee bean-growing countries are also being slammed with tariffs. Colombia, the second-biggest exporter based on net weight, has a 10% tariff, and Vietnam, the third-biggest, has a 20% tariff.

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

“I don’t like country music, but I don’t mean to denigrate those who do. And for the people who like country music, denigrate means ‘put down.’” - Bob Newhart 

Reminds me of a funny story. The dive bar I go to in has a bunch of dedicated music people, many are musicians and played in bands. They are primarily classic rock to some hair band stuff. Hardly any country. From time to time people drift in and play some country stuff (we are in the sticks) but they don't mind. But there is one guy...He is in love with one of the bartenders so he comes at least once a week. He's around 75ish, she's about 60. Never gonna happen. Giggle.

He plays these awful sappy country songs - about 7 - over and over and over. We counted one day, 7 songs, 3 played two times, another 3. Their jukebox can be accessed via app on our phones. You can play a song from across town if you want. We decided that once we heard one song twice - it was game over. It cost extra, but you can fast pass it to the top. Between the two of us fast passing his stuff with our Santana, Molley Hatchet, Gun's & Roses to start (message sent - he's looking at the queue on is phone as are we) - and we follow with Iron Butterfly In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida long version and then Frampton Do you Feel Like We Do. That's over a half hour. 

Not a happy camper, left with songs in the queue. The next week as we understand it, he came early, punished those people and went out the door when me and the other guy came in. We think he's on to us. Giggle. I guess he's filthy rich, big time electrician and farmer. He can probably break us, but we won round one. The one bartender was pissed because he gives her 20 bucks.

Speaking of coffee. I had a picture of both, but I lost one. This one is from a little grocery store in NW Ohio in a town of maybe 7k people. I'm about 20 minutes away in another little burg of 18k and you can buy the exact same thing for $15.99 or $12.99 with a Kroger card. Unreal. WTF?

[oblong]

Do you feel like I do was a jukebox staple for me back in my dive bar years about 20 years ago.  Every Monday I'd walk up to a place and meet two buddies.  That's what having small kids at home do to you.  Started with Monday night football and free pizza at halftime then we just kept going for about 5 years.  

[romad1]

Listening to David Frum the other day and he said the Tariffs are a violation of the Article 1 of the Constitution because they give the Executive a funding mechanism separate from Congress.  I gather there will/could be a challenge to them on that grounds.  I guess if Congress took the controls over who is tariffed it might be ok.  

Congress has ceded so many of its prerogatives to this clown show

[Deleterious]

That CNN article is not well done.  The Tariffs are an issue for sure, but the major problem for coffee prices right now is drought.  

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/17/nx-s1-5228008/coffee-prices-brazil-drought-weather

Quote

That's because Brazil's coffee harvest is coming in short — by as much as a quarter, according to one of the top coffee traders.

Brazil is by far the biggest grower of the world's most popular coffee bean, called arabica. It goes into most ground or roasted coffee. Brazil's farmers this year faced one of the worst droughts on record.

"It eventually started to rain … but they had determined so much of the drought damage was irreversible," said long-time importer John Cossette with Royal Coffee in California. "And that's going to affect next year's crop pretty significantly."

These are the two most imported beans in the US.  Again, this is from December.

Quote

Vietnam is the top grower of the second-most popular bean, called robusta, which is often used in instant coffee. Growers in Vietnam also faced a severe drought followed by heavier-than-usual rains. Scientists say climate change is shifting weather patterns in these coffee-growing regions.

Over the past year, the cost of arabica has jumped around 70%, while robusta has doubled in price. Last week, arabica prices on the futures market surpassed the previous record from 1977 of $3.35 per pound. It's not all because the industry needs the beans; financial speculators, too, have been cashing in on the chaos.

Same thing with beef prices.  The tariffs are contributing to a problem that was there long before they were introduced.  Beef prices have been rising steadily since 2021.  Drought again is a big problem, with US herd size the smallest it has been in decades.

Low herd inventory ripples through U.S. beef market

Quote

The national cattle herd continues to hover at historically low numbers following bouts of drought across major beef-producing states, including back-to-back years of extreme drought across Texas. 

The national beef herd hit a 73-year low in January 2024 at 28.2 million head. Beef herd numbers have increased slightly to 28.7 million head, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture July cattle inventory report, but cow-calf prices continue to reach new heights. 

Cleere said feeding cattle to heavier weights has helped make up for lower cattle numbers, but beef production is down year-over-year overall. Cleere said the herd size coupled with strong consumer demand at the retail level has continued to fuel historically high prices for cow-calf producers.

 

[CMRivdogs]

56 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Listening to David Frum the other day and he said the Tariffs are a violation of the Article 1 of the Constitution because they give the Executive a funding mechanism separate from Congress.  I gather there will/could be a challenge to them on that grounds.  I guess if Congress took the controls over who is tariffed it might be ok.  

Congress has ceded so many of its prerogatives to this clown show

I did a bit of digging. Technically Frum is correct, however Congress basically ceded a lot of the tariff laws to the executive branch. Going back to Smoot Hawley in the 1930s, and other tariff acts in the '60s and 70s, Congress has given the President the power to impose and negotiate tariffs.

If you take the originalist's view Trump has overstepped his boundaries. The history of the courts says otherwise, they gave up that power a while ago.

Or at least that's what ChatGPT tells me

And since we have long agreed that this Congress has given up basically all designs at actual governing....and the Supreme Court has turned itself into a pretzel.....

[ewsieg]

There is a valid argument about the executive simply having the power as congress ceded it, and without a congress that will force authority back, it's Trumps best bet to be able to continue this.   

But, ceding power once, doesn't mean you cede all power.  For instance you can give permission to the police to search your car without a warrant, but if you feel they are overstepping the search, you can demand that they stop which would require them to get a search warrant to continue.  Smoot Hawley only lasted a couple of years before congress stepped in and make changes which negated it.  Ultimately I feel SCOTUS should side with a repeal of these, especially when there was no legitimate emergency which POTUS referenced to start them.

Guess we'll see.

 

[CMRivdogs]

10 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

There is a valid argument about the executive simply having the power as congress ceded it, and without a congress that will force authority back, it's Trumps best bet to be able to continue this.   

But, ceding power once, doesn't mean you cede all power.  For instance you can give permission to the police to search your car without a warrant, but if you feel they are overstepping the search, you can demand that they stop which would require them to get a search warrant to continue.  Smoot Hawley only lasted a couple of years before congress stepped in and make changes which negated it.  Ultimately I feel SCOTUS should side with a repeal of these, especially when there was no legitimate emergency which POTUS referenced to start them.

Guess we'll see.

 

I agree. But in reality the supposedly unbiased judiciary has also abandoned their principles in favor of ideology. It may have almost always been the case but it seems the most blatant in the 60 years or so I've been following politics

[CMRivdogs]

I'm old enough when Bush the Lesser pushed for a pathway to citizenship and guest worker programs for immigrants saying something similar. Yet this guy has probably voted for Republicans his whole life. 
 

 

[pfife]

My understanding is that he can only implemebt tarrifs with a pretext of an emergency.   Apparently his friend Bolsonaro getting prosecuted is an emergency.

[CMRivdogs]

Edited Monday at 04:15 PM by CMRivdogs
It appears to be the same report

[oblong]

17 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I'm old enough when Bush the Lesser pushed for a pathway to citizenship and guest worker programs for immigrants saying something similar. Yet this guy has probably voted for Republicans his whole life. 
 

 

I'm so tired of the "spoiled" and "lazy" argument.

It's about choice and opportunity.  We saw it during covid when places couldn't find workers and some nutjob would get on TV and whine "Nobody wants to work anymore".  No.  Nobody wants to work for you.  Compete for employees like you compete for customers.  Nobody is entitled to a workforce.

 

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

That CNN article is not well done.  The Tariffs are an issue for sure, but the major problem for coffee prices right now is drought.  

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/17/nx-s1-5228008/coffee-prices-brazil-drought-weather

These are the two most imported beans in the US.  Again, this is from December.

Same thing with beef prices.  The tariffs are contributing to a problem that was there long before they were introduced.  Beef prices have been rising steadily since 2021.  Drought again is a big problem, with US herd size the smallest it has been in decades.

Low herd inventory ripples through U.S. beef market

 

Ok, well, then, the government should be acting in our interest to bring prices down, not exacerbating the problem to drive prices up.

Working in the interest of the people is what a government dedicated to working in the interest of the people would do.

[chasfh]

50 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

But, ceding power once, doesn't mean you cede all power.  For instance you can give permission to the police to search your car without a warrant, but if you feel they are overstepping the search, you can demand that they stop which would require them to get a search warrant to continue. 

 

lol maybe you can demand to speak to their manager if they don’t stop searching once you demand they stop.

[chasfh]

29 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I'm old enough when Bush the Lesser pushed for a pathway to citizenship and guest worker programs for immigrants saying something similar. Yet this guy has probably voted for Republicans his whole life. 
 

 

Maybe Mister I’m Not Spoiled Farmer should roll up his sleeves and do it himself. 

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I'm so tired of the "spoiled" and "lazy" argument.

It's about choice and opportunity.  We saw it during covid when places couldn't find workers and some nutjob would get on TV and whine "Nobody wants to work anymore".  No.  Nobody wants to work for you.  Compete for employees like you compete for customers.  Nobody is entitled to a workforce.

As someone with teenage kids, it's crazy how much wages raised for fast food employees when the choice to the owner was to pay higher or simply not be able to open the doors.  My guess is those owners are still getting by, despite the increase in labor.

That said, for some industries, there isn't as much mark up or volume to be able to believe that simply paying more will benefit.  My wife did not see big raises in her job over Covid and she's seeing friends of our son picking up unskilled jobs paying not much less then what she is making (granted she still has some decent perks which they don't have).  Her boss owns a small business and has done everything he can to keep price increases from being passed to his customers which I'm sure means a lot less money in his pocket.  Maybe he is wrong and could easily raise his rates, but I do understand his concern about it.  

[Sports_Freak]

I am totally against political violence. 100% against it. But people should voice their displeasure at the ballot box. But with that being said, it takes a lot of nerve for these politicians to take tax money, vote to take away people's rights and then vote to use even more tax money to double their security. They only work part time and most make 3 or 4 times more than the average American, who pay taxes to support them. Let them hire their own security and use tax dollars to help typical citizens.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

As someone with teenage kids, it's crazy how much wages raised for fast food employees when the choice to the owner was to pay higher or simply not be able to open the doors.  My guess is those owners are still getting by, despite the increase in labor.

That said, for some industries, there isn't as much mark up or volume to be able to believe that simply paying more will benefit.  My wife did not see big raises in her job over Covid and she's seeing friends of our son picking up unskilled jobs paying not much less then what she is making (granted she still has some decent perks which they don't have).  Her boss owns a small business and has done everything he can to keep price increases from being passed to his customers which I'm sure means a lot less money in his pocket.  Maybe he is wrong and could easily raise his rates, but I do understand his concern about it.  

The problem is the companies that DO pass along the extra costs to their customers. And it's also the issue I have with tarriffs. They are a direct tax on consumers, when Trump talks about the money the tarriffs have brought in, that money is an additional consumer tax. And i fear many companies won't lower prices if the tarriff is taken away, they just increase their profits. Trump is/has destroyed our economy and we have over 3 more years of that moron in charge. 

[oblong]

2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

As someone with teenage kids, it's crazy how much wages raised for fast food employees when the choice to the owner was to pay higher or simply not be able to open the doors.  My guess is those owners are still getting by, despite the increase in labor.

That said, for some industries, there isn't as much mark up or volume to be able to believe that simply paying more will benefit.  My wife did not see big raises in her job over Covid and she's seeing friends of our son picking up unskilled jobs paying not much less then what she is making (granted she still has some decent perks which they don't have).  Her boss owns a small business and has done everything he can to keep price increases from being passed to his customers which I'm sure means a lot less money in his pocket.  Maybe he is wrong and could easily raise his rates, but I do understand his concern about it.  

But whose problem is that to solve? Should people just volunteer to work for a lower wage to help a brother out?  The issue is we had an aging workforce that saw an opportunity during COVID to either retire or not bother with that second job.  Baby boomers are reaching retirement age.  
 

[Sports_Freak]

6 hours ago, Deleterious said:

That CNN article is not well done.  The Tariffs are an issue for sure, but the major problem for coffee prices right now is drought.  

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/17/nx-s1-5228008/coffee-prices-brazil-drought-weather

These are the two most imported beans in the US.  Again, this is from December.

Same thing with beef prices.  The tariffs are contributing to a problem that was there long before they were introduced.  Beef prices have been rising steadily since 2021.  Drought again is a big problem, with US herd size the smallest it has been in decades.

Low herd inventory ripples through U.S. beef market

 

Trump has a 50% tarriff on Brazil goods, including coffee. A real president would help American consumers with regards to prices if there a shortage because of storms, droughts or wars. Trump has done the opposite. He did this to Brazil because they brought his buddy, the president, up on corruption charges. These corrupt a-holes have to protect other corrupt politicians. 

https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-coup-trial-convicted-what-to-know-ed1667f26c809b1cfa01aa0f791ba824