2025 Detroit Tigers General Discussion Thread

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, Longgone said:

Players with a lot a swing and miss tend to be streaky.

Which is why I believe Harris targets players who are NOT huge swing and miss... 

To avoid those cold as Antartica streaks...

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Longgone said:

Players with a lot a swing and miss tend to be streaky.

but Riley's swing and miss is up ~20% from his career avg, so maybe he doesn't need to be so streaky.

[chasfh]

On 7/9/2025 at 9:30 AM, Tiger337 said:

That kind of explains the difference between b-ref and fangraphs pitching WAR.  b-ref focuses on past performannce while fangraphs is morte predictive.  Both philosophies have their uses.  But what if fielding performance does in fact change because a player loses a step?  Then we don't know if the change is due to performance or variability.  It has been shown that fielding performance peaks earlier than hitting.  

Fangraphs displays two types of pitcher’s WAR: fWAR (i.e., regular WAR) and RA9-WAR. fWAR is calculated based on FIP—which itself is largely made up of walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate, the things pitchers are assumed to have control over—and is meant to be predictive. RA9-WAR adjusts fWAR by layering on BIP and LOB and is meant to be more reflective. We can see all this side by side on a pitcher’s Fangraphs card. Reference’s bWAR is generally closer to RA9-WAR than fWAR, and to me, is not even necessarily needed as long as I can see RA9-WAR, BIP-wins, LOB-wins, and fWAR all side by side.

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

but Riley's swing and miss is up ~20% from his career avg, so maybe he doesn't need to be so streaky.

Seems pretty clear Riley is selling out for homers by increasing hit bad speed and his launch angle. It’s working, as far as homers go. As for overall hitting effectiveness regarding wRC+ and wOBA, if you believe small changes are significant it seems to be working for him. If you don’t believe so much in that, it’s a wash.

I am a bit concerned about Riley’s taking a step back on his LF defense.

[gehringer_2]

38 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Seems pretty clear Riley is selling out for homers by increasing hit bad speed and his launch angle. It’s working, as far as homers go. As for overall hitting effectiveness regarding wRC+ and wOBA, if you believe small changes are significant it seems to be working for him. If you don’t believe so much in that, it’s a wash.

I am a bit concerned about Riley’s taking a step back on his LF defense.

the question is whether with the sell out approach he has opened holes in his plate coverage that pitchers are starting to exploit more effectively, meaning that he won't be able to maintain overall production until he makes another adjustment.

the other possibility is he is nursing an injury. This started pretty suddenly. He was cruising until the 2nd game of the Oakland series and is 9 for 58 with 23 K's since.

Edited Friday at 12:46 PM by gehringer_2

[Hongbit]

51 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Seems pretty clear Riley is selling out for homers by increasing hit bad speed and his launch angle. It’s working, as far as homers go.

 

This seems true of most current ballplayers that have even a modicum of power.  

[oblong]

Is Mize an All Star or not?  I see a lot of reporting by shady sites but they all source one person.

 

[papalawrence]

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

Is Mize an All Star or not?  I see a lot of reporting by shady sites but they all source one person.

 

SI is reporting it

Tigers Earn Another All-Star Selection in Resurgent Star Pitcher Casey Mize https://share.google/MTIej5OJWQlVeTpIz

[Biff Mayhem]

Dad?

[oblong]

[Edman85]

Brieske and Smith to the IL in Toledo if you were wondering about reliever depth.

[Edman85]

On 7/11/2025 at 9:50 AM, papalawrence said:

SI is reporting it

Tigers Earn Another All-Star Selection in Resurgent Star Pitcher Casey Mize https://share.google/MTIej5OJWQlVeTpIz

Here to point out SI is a shady site these days.

[papalawrence]

3 straight losses, outscored 34-13. Tomorrow is a big game.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

IRod and Mike Maroth?  Those were days, eh?

[GalagaGuy]

 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, GalagaGuy said:

 

Should of kept.  

[CaliforniaDreaming]

10 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

 

"Old Friend"

[casimir]

10 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Should of kept.  

You got'ta apostrophize that.

[casimir]

On 7/10/2025 at 9:33 AM, chasfh said:

Riley must have both the ugliest batting swing and ugliest running gait of any big regular position playing regular. It looks for all the world to me as though neither will age well, although I can provide no evidence or examples to back up my concern. 

Yes, I'm a little concerned about Greene's game long term, too.  The swing seems to generate a lot of torque on the back.  The gait, as you mention.  One of those two by itself is one thing.  Both of those variables together is another.  Let's also factor in that he is a weaker armed OF.  It's tough to know exactly how this team will look 3 seasons from now, but will Greene be a DH sooner than we think he might?  Ideally Clark would be up by then and if Meadows were still around, well, that's a pretty good 2/3 of OF defense right there.

Just in the short term, or any term, does that kind of bat path lend itself more to boons and busts?

[casimir]

On 7/9/2025 at 9:49 AM, Arlington said:

   

You're telling a different story.  These are the power rankings and should reflect the best based on performance to date. As for being able to predict the future yours is more intelligent.  It's like playoff odds.  162 games is a long season and it gives you a pretty good indication of how good a team is.  When you take a playoff series for example, and you have the league's best team which won a little over .630 of their games and pit them against a team that won .520 of their games you end up with a result statistically of the better team winning the series less than 6 times out of ten and the lesser team winning close to 5 times out of ten, so yea.  The lesser team has a much better chance than people tend to assign them.  Anyone in your tier could beat anyone else in the tier and in any series the outcome pretty much could go either way.  

Well, our conversation certainly jinxed them, eh?  🤐

[casimir]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-baserunning-batting.shtml

This seems fun.  The Tigers have an extra base taken % of 54%, tops in MLB.  They are a full 6% ahead of the Dodgers and Rangers.  Taking that 6% variance from 1st to 2nd applying that to the Dodgers and Rangers, so the range of 48% on down to 42%, encompasses 15 teams.  The league average is 42%.  This is certainly not a statistic that many Tiger teams of yesteryear can hang their base running oven mitts upon.

[lordstanley]

Wow, is that 2nd sentence really true?

 

[SeattleMike]

51 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Wow, is that 2nd sentence really true?

 

34 runs in 3 days will do some serious damage to your ERA

[papalawrence]

3 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

34 runs in 3 days will do some serious damage to your ERA

Now 42 in 4

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, papalawrence said:

Now 42 in 4

Shades of 1984 when the 35-5 Tigers got swept by the Mariners.