Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[lordstanley]

Let's say for argument's sake Chris Ilitch wanted to sell the Tigers in the next 3-5 years. Which move - trading Skubal for prospects, letting him walk next winter, or paying him to a bloated contract - is best for maximizing 2028 franchise value? I think there's an argument that signing him would. 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The other extreme end way to look at the argument is that your one year of your superstar may be worth 6-8 WAR plus the economic value of a playoff run, and you get a high comp pick, which gives you a shot at a guy with as good a set of odds of success as a prospect you get in trade;  compared against getting a prospect or two in a trade, from the team that knows them best and is still willing to part with them, who have a good chance of having less career WAR than your star produced in that one year you kept him.

And I think for Harris the high pick has a lot of appeal because he knows what he wants in a pick and it's probably not what a lot of teams draft for.

The only counter to this is https://www.mlb.com/news/athletics-trade-leo-de-vries-mason-miller

I would bet anything I own that the Padres didn't want to give up Leo De Vries. Gotta give something to get something.

[4hzglory]

23 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

The only counter to this is https://www.mlb.com/news/athletics-trade-leo-de-vries-mason-miller

I would bet anything I own that the Padres didn't want to give up Leo De Vries. Gotta give something to get something.

Mason Miller had many years of control and the Padres believe he can be a front of rotation starter.

 

The Padres don’t trade De Vries if Miller is only signed through 2026.

[papalawrence]

9 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Mason Miller had many years of control and the Padres believe he can be a front of rotation starter.

 

The Padres don’t trade De Vries if Miller is only signed through 2026.

I agree. The team control years is a huge factor. If Skubal had multiple years before FA, they prospect haul would likely be incredible. 

I do think there is a chance that an owner like Cohen is so eager to win, that the Mets might offer a package that will be hard to pass up. 

This should be a fun off season

[AlaskanTigersFan]

The point that was being made if I understood correctly, was that teams will trade prospects because they think they will fail.

I was just pointing out that I think a lot of times, teams don't want to trade players, but they have to in order to acquire someone LIKE Mason Miller. That's all. 

I get the team control and everything like that..... I was just saying sometimes teams do give up prospects they really don't want to, but they gotta give something to get something. That's all..... 

[papalawrence]

2 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

The point that was being made if I understood correctly, was that teams will trade prospects because they think they will fail.

I was just pointing out that I think a lot of times, teams don't want to trade players, but they have to in order to acquire someone LIKE Mason Miller. That's all. 

I get the team control and everything like that..... I was just saying sometimes teams do give up prospects they really don't want to, but they gotta give something to get something. That's all..... 

Certainly. That's Dombrowski's middle name. He understands that in the long run, the return of an established player(s) will be greater than what typically comes via the prospect package. Doesn't always work out that way, but more often than not, it seems to.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

Certainly. That's Dombrowski's middle name. He understands that in the long run, the return of an established player(s) will be greater than what typically comes via the prospect package. Doesn't always work out that way, but more often than not, it seems to.

I think too, Dave Dombrowski is brought in to bring home a ring. That's his mandate when he's hired. He does what he's hired to do. Dave goes all out to win the ring when the owners want, but he leaves farm systems in ruins (per owners orders. They dont give a phak about the next 10 years, they want a ring now!). He's done it the last four jobs he's had (including the Tigers).

He's the hired gun. I wouldn't give him too much props for what he does. He literally empties the coffers to make a good run at a championship leaving nothing behind for the next GM. Have you ever seen DD rebuild a team? Nope........... Does every single team go into a massive multi year rebuild after he leaves (every single time)? YEP!

Should we trade Max Clark for Corey Seager and McGonigle for Pete Alonso and Rainer, Yost, Briceno, Liranzo, Hamm, Melton, Witherspoon for Aaron Judge? We'd most likely win the World Series if we did that. But we'd be F'd like a paid lady on Woodward Ave for the next decade. That's what Dave Dombrowski does. You can say "He understands that in the long run, the return of an established player(s) will be greater than what typically comes via the prospect package." all you want. But the reality is, he doesn't g.a.f. because the owners that hire him tell him not to, specifically because they want to win now and then will rebuild when he moves on. 

[SoCalTiger]

The one advantage Detroit has right now over the field is the ability to pay Skubull ( I hope I spelled that right 🙃 ) a large contract in 2026. I assume Boras and Skubal want to "set the market"  which right now I believe is Yamamoto $325 million 12 year deal starting with his age 27 season which is big difference than starting at 31 for Tarik in 2027 BUT we could start it at 30 so perhaps offer 10 years $400 million with $100 million ( or what the amount should be) deferred so the Value is more than $325 AND he can say 400 out loud. That would be real hard to pass on for a once TJ recovering starter even with two consecutive Cy Youngs. 

It might be fiscal malpractice but with so many young stars we can handle 35 million per year (actual cost) and Skubul can set the market while remaining in Detroit. 

If he walks from that then well open the bidding with no regret.

[Motor City Sonics]

It's play money for Cohen.  He's gonna offer Skubal 60 million a year.    

My fear is another Miggy.    And as much as we loved Miggy, he weighed this team down for years.   Skubal is at his peak now.  Ride it out and hopefully get something for him. 

Hey, they guy pitches incredibly in the post season and they can't win when he starts.   So what's it matter anyway?  

[Nate7474]

Economically is what puts me square in the trade him this offseason. If the resource I looked at is correct we have 143 million in payroll and let’s say over the next couple years with a contender Illitch is willing to take that up to 200-225. Do you want one pitcher taking up 1/5 or 1/6 of your entire budget. A pitcher that when they have injuries, not if often miss the rest of that year and sometimes more. Also when healthy although dominate over the last two years only affected 31 games each season. So pure math he plays in 19.1% of games over the last 2 year and would take up 1/6th of your payroll. 
 

I think it will be easier and cheaper to find those wins elsewhere specifically for long term organizational health. If they keep them for next season they will still need to offer him something competitive to show face to the fans but my guess is they would be hoping privately that he signs elsewhere. 

[4hzglory]

37 minutes ago, Nate7474 said:

Economically is what puts me square in the trade him this offseason. If the resource I looked at is correct we have 143 million in payroll and let’s say over the next couple years with a contender Illitch is willing to take that up to 200-225. Do you want one pitcher taking up 1/5 or 1/6 of your entire budget. A pitcher that when they have injuries, not if often miss the rest of that year and sometimes more. Also when healthy although dominate over the last two years only affected 31 games each season. So pure math he plays in 19.1% of games over the last 2 year and would take up 1/6th of your payroll. 
 

I think it will be easier and cheaper to find those wins elsewhere specifically for long term organizational health. If they keep them for next season they will still need to offer him something competitive to show face to the fans but my guess is they would be hoping privately that he signs elsewhere. 

It isn't the percentage of games in the season that matters as much as the percentage of games in the postseason when he can pitch in 33-43% in any given series and affect many of them he doesn't as both Hinch and the opposing manager knows he is likely to give a strong outing and they make decisions other in other games based on that (i.e. game 1 of the Seattle series).

Edited October 16 by 4hzglory

[Nate7474]

6 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

It isn't the percentage of games in the season that matters as much as the percentage of games in the postseason when he can pitch in 33-43% in any given series and affect many of them he doesn't as both Hinch and the opposing manager knows he is likely to give a strong outing and they make decisions other in other games based on that (i.e. game 1 of the Seattle series).

Valid point, but we didn’t win either game he pitched in Seattle and the other games we held up fine. Other teams that are still playing also don’t have Skubal and they’re still going. At least to my eyes we lost because we couldn’t hit well enough. I don’t want the majority of our resources on pitching and would prefer them in hitting and defense. Signing him affects our ability to resign our hitters or find new ones. 

[4hzglory]

42 minutes ago, Nate7474 said:

Valid point, but we didn’t win either game he pitched in Seattle and the other games we held up fine. Other teams that are still playing also don’t have Skubal and they’re still going. At least to my eyes we lost because we couldn’t hit well enough. I don’t want the majority of our resources on pitching and would prefer them in hitting and defense. Signing him affects our ability to resign our hitters or find new ones. 

If we didn't have someone we could trust in Skubal going in game 2, I think there is a good chance Hinch handles the bullpen different in game 1 and we don't win that one.   I also think Seattle handled it more desparately which gave us more opportunities to see their leverage relievers which finally helped us in game 4 (and maybe Kerry in game 5.  Conversely, with no Skubal in game 5, Hinch may have let Mize go longer in game 4 which may have helped us get a couple extra innings out of some guys in game 5)

 

We definitely lost because we didn't hit well enough, but the team that won actually scored 1 less run in the series than us and couldn't score more than 2 runs for 14 innings of game 5 either.  

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, Nate7474 said:

Economically is what puts me square in the trade him this offseason. If the resource I looked at is correct we have 143 million in payroll and let’s say over the next couple years with a contender Illitch is willing to take that up to 200-225. Do you want one pitcher taking up 1/5 or 1/6 of your entire budget. A pitcher that when they have injuries, not if often miss the rest of that year and sometimes more. Also when healthy although dominate over the last two years only affected 31 games each season. So pure math he plays in 19.1% of games over the last 2 year and would take up 1/6th of your payroll. 
 

I think it will be easier and cheaper to find those wins elsewhere specifically for long term organizational health. If they keep them for next season they will still need to offer him something competitive to show face to the fans but my guess is they would be hoping privately that he signs elsewhere. 

The problem may be not spending the money we would have given Skubal and letting every player walk after team control of them is over. Keep bringing up talented and much less expensive rookies to replace the experienced quality players. The Tampa way...

[ICroupier]

20 hours ago, papalawrence said:

I agree. The team control years is a huge factor. If Skubal had multiple years before FA, they prospect haul would likely be incredible. 

I do think there is a chance that an owner like Cohen is so eager to win, that the Mets might offer a package that will be hard to pass up. 

This should be a fun off season

The Mets prospects are very underwhelming. My son's a Mets fans, so I probably know more about them than any other team not the Tigers.

I love McLean, but given his performance this year my guess is he's untouchable. I'm not nearly as high on Tong, Sproat, Scott is coming off injury.

I'm meh on Benge, Williams is redundant with many of our MI prospects, and Clifford is the exact opposite of the type of guy we should target. I do like Reimer, but he's more a complimentary piece and not a headliner.

[Tenacious D]

21 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Let's say for argument's sake Chris Ilitch wanted to sell the Tigers in the next 3-5 years. Which move - trading Skubal for prospects, letting him walk next winter, or paying him to a bloated contract - is best for maximizing 2028 franchise value? I think there's an argument that signing him would. 

Great question.  Twins and White Sox in recent years reduced payroll with the assumption it would make them more attractive in a sale.

[1984Echoes]

45 minutes ago, ICroupier said:

The Mets prospects are very underwhelming...

I like the Phillies, Dodgers, and Red Sox prospects. The Red Sox have multiple really nice-looking young pitchers.

I didn't like the Yankees or Mets prospects.

Not certain who else may try to jump in the ring...

[GalagaGuy]

 

[Tigermojo]

5 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

 

 

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

 

I really doubt this is true.  They know approximately how much he is worth and they aren't going to off him 250 million less than that.  

Edited October 16 by Tiger337

[Tigermojo]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

I really doubt this true.  They know approximately how much he is worth and they aren't going to off him 250 million less than that.  

Boras propaganda off to a great start. I can't read the article but it says something about $170 million earlier this year or last year.

[GalagaGuy]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I really doubt this is true.  They know approximately how much he is worth and they aren't going to off him 250 million less than that.  

I could see the Tigers offering something like 6@40 and Boras countering with 10@50.   That's the kind of guy he is.  

[monkeytargets39]

I’d have to imagine if that’s accurate then the reason for that gap is the years attached to it and/or incentives

[Tigermojo]

Sounds like Tigers offered $170 last year which would include two arbitration years and it's being compared to a free agent contract. Skubal hasn't reached free agency yet so why would the Tigers offer what Boras wants?

Could this mean Skubal is receptive to an offer if Boras is already leaking information to the media? Why throw numbers around now? Only the Tigers can negotiate.

[papalawrence]

21 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Sounds like Tigers offered $170 last year which would include two arbitration years and it's being compared to a free agent contract. Skubal hasn't reached free agency yet so why would the Tigers offer what Boras wants?

Could this mean Skubal is receptive to an offer if Boras is already leaking information to the media? Why throw numbers around now? Only the Tigers can negotiate.

I agree. Heyman's post was sent to stir up buzz. No way Harris would offer "significantly less that 170 million." That's just silly. That was likely the "non competetive" offer made last year. I can see Boras starting negotiations with something like 11/500 and someone will ultimately offer 10/400-450, and it won't be Detroit. He'll be traded or lost for a comp pick.

Edited October 17 by papalawrence