Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I think I'm going to say this every week, once a week until Skubal is traded or next season starts.

Not trading Skubal will be the worst mistake in the history of the Tigers organization. 

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I think I'm going to say this every week, once a week until Skubal is traded or next season starts.

Not trading Skubal will be the worst mistake in the history of the Tigers organization. 

If the offers we receive are NOT better than the 2027 comp pick...

Then this is NOT a true statement.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

If the offers we receive are NOT better than the 2027 comp pick...

Then this is NOT a true statement.

Tigers should get 3, if not 4 top 100 prospects in return for Skubal. 

or in the Dodgers Case, two top 100's + Roki Sasaki. 

[Dan Gilmore]

I guess I don’t do enough mind-altering drugs to post my thoughts on the return in a trade of Skubal. 😎

[SoCalTiger]

22 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Tigers should get 3, if not 4 top 100 prospects in return for Skubal. 

or in the Dodgers Case, two top 100's + Roki Sasaki. 

I'm not sure we would get that kind of return even for Skubal. The Dodgers obviously don't need him and other teams value top 100 prospects quite highly . This is why I now am off the fence and think we will retain him for 2026.

Now if Harris could get 3 or 4 top 100 prospects , providing there are teams with that many, then yes he will be moved. 

Yamamoto won three World Series games and in so doing proved how valuable a shut down starter is over a seven game series so we should keep him since he is the best "David" to the Dodgers "Goliath" in the game. 

Remember losing him to free agency in 2027 is hard but we still have the cash to expense elsewhere. Use it wisely and draft well and the gap to not trading him closes substantially. 

[SoCalTiger]

And I would like to add that if we do keep Skubal for 2026 please do not take him out of the game early in the playoffs. If you do what's the point in having him. 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

*If* they kept him till next year, they better pitch his ass 200 pitches per start in the playoffs. They aren't getting him backed. Use him to the ground.

Skubs will get at least 3 top 100 prospects (or value equivelent of) if not 4. He better be gone. 

[TcFlint]

I am in 100% agreement that he should be traded if you get a front line pitching prospect , another top 15-20 MLB prospect , and a young controllable major leaguer (preferably a pitcher).  However, I am expecting Harris to not trade Skubal, us to see the Skubal compensatory pick by 2029 or 2030 and the Tigers trajectory stunted.

[oblong]

20 minutes ago, TcFlint said:

I am in 100% agreement that he should be traded if you get a front line pitching prospect , another top 15-20 MLB prospect , and a young controllable major leaguer (preferably a pitcher).  However, I am expecting Harris to not trade Skubal, us to see the Skubal compensatory pick by 2029 or 2030 and the Tigers trajectory stunted.

No team is going to do that trade.  Why would they trade a younger and cheaper version of Skubal that they have for a few more years?  And another one?  And a position player?  No team is that deep and on paper they have just made their team weaker in 2026 and most likely 2027 and 2028. 

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

And I would like to add that if we do keep Skubal for 2026 please do not take him out of the game early in the playoffs. If you do what's the point in having him. 

Agreed. A Skubal at 100 pitches is still better than anything out of our bullpen. 

[papalawrence]

2 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said:

I guess I don’t do enough mind-altering drugs to post my thoughts on the return in a trade of Skubal. 😎

Some poditive research data on benefits of psychedelics

[gehringer_2]

I'll still go with both the best and worst case example being Johann Santana with the Twins, They made the big trade with him coming off 2 Cy Youngs and a year of control. They got the much heralded return of 4 prospects. The prospects all crashed and burned, but MN was 2nd in the div that year and won it outright the two following years without him. If they had kept him they probably win all three years and would been no worse off. That's sort of the limits at both ends in one real case history.

Also notable that the Twins dodged a bullet in not giving him a crazy long term deal at 'only' 29, as he only had three more good years and was out of baseball after 4. The Mets ended up paying him for 6 - which actually wasn't terrible compared to terms people are predicting today.

Of course that's not the only possible future for Skubal, but it is among the real possibilities a FO has to consider.

Edited Tuesday at 04:41 AM by gehringer_2

[oblong]

I learned the concept of "don't pay someone until you have to" from a former poster here and I think it's valid.  Especially given the uncertainty with the labor situation.  If you think you have a good system in place you should be able to replace him.  You don't need back to back Cy Young pitchers to replace him but a couple of players who might finish top ten. 

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I learned the concept of "don't pay someone until you have to" from a former poster here and I think it's valid.  Especially given the uncertainty with the labor situation.  If you think you have a good system in place you should be able to replace him.  You don't need back to back Cy Young pitchers to replace him but a couple of players who might finish top ten. 

I tend to agree with this now.   If you can throw money around like the Dodgers and Mets you sign him, but we know that's not happening.   But if you trade him, you'd better get something good for him.   

The biggest thing is that  - he plays 31 out of 162 games, and I am not sure he's gonna hold up more than 2 or 3 more years at this level.

And the big question - what happens next December?   

Get used to the idea of not having a season in 2027.     

The baseball players union is more stubborn than the hockey players union and they lost a whole season. 

Plus, with the ESPN contract expiring and a lot of uncertainty there, the billionaires won't be losing as much money and they can stand to miss more. 

There will be a salary cap of some kind when this is all sorted, but fans will pay a steep price to get there.   Of course. 

The Skubal timing kind of sucks, but I think it's a horrible idea to pay someone $50 million a year, which is what it's going to be.    I mean, if you can do 4/180 -- sure, but they're gonna want 8 years - and that's foolish.  He's gonna break down at some point.   

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, TcFlint said:

Scott Harris doesn’t have the kahuna’s to trade Skubal.  Meaning Skubal will leave the Tigers for $400 + Million and we will get a compensatory pick in 2027 meaning the pick will not make the Tigers roster until 2029 at the very earliest.  This is why I say trade him now and keep our trajectory going forward, get a top level pitching prospect in the trade, and hitting prospect, and sign a free agent starter and set us up for the he next several years.  However, not gonna happen.

If we trade Skubal, our trajectory will go backward, not forward.

I can hardly imagine the ****storm that would rain down on Harris if he were to trade Skubal and we miss the playoffs next year.

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I'm not sure we would get that kind of return even for Skubal.

There is only one guy I can think of who would gladly empty out the top of the farm system for one year of a Cy Young winner who would likely leave the following year, and that guy doesn’t work here anymore.

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Tigers should get 3, if not 4 top 100 prospects in return for Skubal. 

or in the Dodgers Case, two top 100's + Roki Sasaki. 

Please tell us the trade you want to see. Where are we trading Skubal to, and which of their guys are we getting back?

[AlaskanTigersFan]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

There is only one guy I can think of who would gladly empty out the top of the farm system for one year of a Cy Young winner who would likely leave the following year, and that guy doesn’t work here anymore.

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Please tell us the trade you want to see. Where are we trading Skubal to, and which of their guys are we getting back?

You already answered your own question. 

The trade I WANT to happen is Skubal for Andrew Painter, Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford. *IF* the Phillies re-sign Schwarber, this is VERY realistic to happen. They will be all in next year and a rotation of Skubal, Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo........ WOW! This all hinges on if the Phillies re-sign Schwarbs though. They won't go for Tucker as their window of contention is 2-3 years. So they need immediate impact, then Dave can leave an go on to the next team.

The two more likely scenarios are a trade to Seattle or a trade to the Mets. 

Seattle - Colt Emerson, Lazaro Monetez and Harry Ford for Skubal

Mets - Benge/or Williams, Tong, Sproat for Skubal. Even though I've been saying this for 3 weeks (look back on this thread), now media must be listening to me: "The Mets might be at the front of that line. A previous report from The Athletic's Will Sammon, noted the Mets "are expected to get involved" in Skubal trade talks. Sammon also opined that the Tigers' asking price may be "two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect."

And you really can't rule out the Dodgers. I know that's very cliche, but Sasaki + De Pala + Alex Freeland could be a possibility too.

The only hesitation I have with this is the Dodgers are trying to be the destination for Japanese superstars. They've invested a ton of money into Japan and now stream every home game in Japan. So for them to give up Sasaki who I really think legit, may be the most underrated player in MLB, would be beyond unfathomable to the Japanese. So that's the only reason I don't list this as likely to happen even though that's the cost.

TLDR: If the Phillies sign Schwarber, Skubal better start packing. If not, listen on the Mariners and Mets making the most noise. There could always be a surprise team, but those four in my opinion are in a category all on their own..........

[AlaskanTigersFan]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'll still go with both the best and worst case example being Johann Santana with the Twins, They made the big trade with him coming off 2 Cy Youngs and a year of control. They got the much heralded return of 4 prospects. The prospects all crashed and burned, but ......

Two words: Bill James. 

The scouting in baseball today is not even comparable to what it was even 10 years ago.... Advanced metrics make scouting more of a science today than ever. Sure there will be misses. But the knowledge on players is on a whole nother planet. Think about going to the moon today versus the 60's when Apollo 11 landed..... They both got there, but how they are done is COMPLETELY different...... (Sorry space week here at UCF). 

I think a generational trade like this will/could/and should alter the trajectory of the Tigers for the next 15 years......

[gehringer_2]

IDK about the Mets. OOH,  They have to be close to the 'whatever must come to an end, will' point with poorly spent money.  OTOH, no team has a bigger mismatch between a strong starting line-up and weak starting pitching, so a guy like Skubal would be the ideal add for them.

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Two words: Bill James. 

The scouting in baseball today is not even comparable to what it was even 10 years ago.... Advanced metrics make scouting more of a science today than ever. Sure there will be misses. But the knowledge on players is on a whole nother planet. Think about going to the moon today versus the 60's when Apollo 11 landed..... They both got there, but how they are done is COMPLETELY different...... (Sorry space week here at UCF). 

I think a generational trade like this will/could/and should alter the trajectory of the Tigers for the next 15 years......

It will be interesting to see if McGonigle/Harris's picks actually pan out with a higher success rate then Al's. We can check in on this issue again when we know....

Edited Tuesday at 02:18 PM by gehringer_2

[4hzglory]

24 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Two words: Bill James. 

The scouting in baseball today is not even comparable to what it was even 10 years ago.... Advanced metrics make scouting more of a science today than ever. Sure there will be misses. But the knowledge on players is on a whole nother planet. Think about going to the moon today versus the 60's when Apollo 11 landed..... They both got there, but how they are done is COMPLETELY different...... (Sorry space week here at UCF). 

I think a generational trade like this will/could/and should alter the trajectory of the Tigers for the next 15 years......

And yet top prospects still fail at very high levels due to a variety of reasons.

 

Edited to add:  And I still think you are greatly overestimating the return that will be out there for 1 year of Skubal.

Edited Tuesday at 02:23 PM by 4hzglory

[Tiger337]

26 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Two words: Bill James. 

The scouting in baseball today is not even comparable to what it was even 10 years ago.... Advanced metrics make scouting more of a science today than ever. Sure there will be misses. But the knowledge on players is on a whole nother planet. Think about going to the moon today versus the 60's when Apollo 11 landed..... They both got there, but how they are done is COMPLETELY different...... (Sorry space week here at UCF). 

I think a generational trade like this will/could/and should alter the trajectory of the Tigers for the next 15 years......

What does Bill James have to do with it?  

[CMRivdogs]

48 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

You already answered your own question. 

The trade I WANT to happen is Skubal for Andrew Painter, Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford. *IF* the Phillies re-sign Schwarber, this is VERY realistic to happen. They will be all in next year and a rotation of Skubal, Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo........ WOW! This all hinges on if the Phillies re-sign Schwarbs though. They won't go for Tucker as their window of contention is 2-3 years. So they need immediate impact, then Dave can leave an go on to the next team.

The two more likely scenarios are a trade to Seattle or a trade to the Mets. 

Seattle - Colt Emerson, Lazaro Monetez and Harry Ford for Skubal

Mets - Benge/or Williams, Tong, Sproat for Skubal. Even though I've been saying this for 3 weeks (look back on this thread), now media must be listening to me: "The Mets might be at the front of that line. A previous report from The Athletic's Will Sammon, noted the Mets "are expected to get involved" in Skubal trade talks. Sammon also opined that the Tigers' asking price may be "two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect."

And you really can't rule out the Dodgers. I know that's very cliche, but Sasaki + De Pala + Alex Freeland could be a possibility too.

The only hesitation I have with this is the Dodgers are trying to be the destination for Japanese superstars. They've invested a ton of money into Japan and now stream every home game in Japan. So for them to give up Sasaki who I really think legit, may be the most underrated player in MLB, would be beyond unfathomable to the Japanese. So that's the only reason I don't list this as likely to happen even though that's the cost.

TLDR: If the Phillies sign Schwarber, Skubal better start packing. If not, listen on the Mariners and Mets making the most noise. There could always be a surprise team, but those four in my opinion are in a category all on their own..........

Dang, your fantasy leagues must be real hoots

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

What does Bill James have to do with it?  

The point I was trying to make is that statistics and evaluation of prospects through advanced metrics make it more likely to "hit" on a prospect than ever before. Bat speed, launch angle, hard hit%, Barrel % etc.... these weren't around 20 years ago. By looking at these and other stats, we can now identify higher pedigree prospects than ever before.

Can there still be duds? Of course! You're asking a guy to hit a 2.75" ball being thrown at 100 mph, under in some cases 54 feet, with a reaction time of less than half a second....... Not everyone is super human. But like it was stated in Moneyball, Pete told Billy Bean after he was asked if he'd take Bean in the first round, "I'd have taken you in the 9th round, no signing bonus....." 

Times have changed............. (That conversation never happened IRL, but you get the point).