Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[chasfh]

How is Boras going to convince Harris and Hinch that Skubal is not allowed to pitch more than five innings?

If Skubal never pitches more than five innings, who’s going to pay him what he wants? What team would give $50 million a year to a guy who willing to go into Operation Shutdown at the behest of his agent?

[Shelton]

On 1/10/2026 at 9:59 AM, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think these numbers come out of thin air. You present a brief to the arbiter (it's a panel but I'm going to use singular anyway) - your arg for why your number is correct. The Tigers no doubt have a well laid out story that carefully works through all the comps and using perfectly reasonable logic, gets them exactly to $19M, and that is the set of assumptions and logic they will present to the arbiter. Of course Skubal and Boras will have done the same homework but with a different set of base axioms, and the logic there will lead to inexorably to $32M. Each side then hopes the base axioms the arbiter picks to start with are closer to the ones they used than the ones the other side used.

My belief is that Skubal and boras are operating outside of any reasonable bounds here, and they are doing it precisely to push their narrative and make it into a story. I think it’s a calculated risk that they believe will pay off down the line. 
 

We all know boras is very skilled at this type of thing. But I don’t think it’s necessarily going to work before a three person panel of arbitrators from the AAA (American Arbitration Association). 
 

[Shelton]

A few notes:

Skubal as a 5+ service time service player is not unique. Nearly every player to reach their final year of arbitration is a 5+ service time player. This is not some secret provision that makes him special. Why is it a story? Because Boras told his media cronies and they ate it up. The reason it’s rarely cited is that it has minimal persuasive value.
 

Slubal is in his third year of arbitration. Not his fourth.
 

That David price contract was a fourth year arbitration award. In Price’s third year he made 14. He went 4-10-14-19.7 over his four arb years.

Juan soto’s record of 31 was also a fourth year arbitration contract. Soto went 8-17-23-31.
 

Corbin Burnes was a three year arb guy. Had won a Cy young. Was coming off multiple star appearances. Received cy young votes multiple years in a row. His three arb salaries were 6-10-15. Now he’s getting 31 from free agency. 

The suggestion from Skubal/boras is that his arbitration salaries should be 4-10-32. A 22 million dollar raise. A 200+% raise. 

Skubal is a fantastic pitcher  Second best in baseball at the moment. But he’s not a unicorn. He’s not the first tier 1 SP or ace or whatever label you want to use. He’s not the first player coming off a cy young. There was one just last year named Tarik Skubal that got over a 100% raise from his prior 4 million dollar salary.

For Skubal and Boras to prevail, they would need to convince an objective and trained neutral arbitration panel that Skubal is so unique that his fair series of arbitration salaries would be at least 4-10-26. 
 

Is there a chance? The panel is human so anything is possible. But they are also huge nerds and they are going to love Scotty Harris.

 

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, Shelton said:

My belief is that Skubal and boras are operating outside of any reasonable bounds here, and they are doing it precisely to push their narrative and make it into a story. I think it’s a calculated risk that they believe will pay off down the line. 
 

We all know boras is very skilled at this type of thing. But I don’t think it’s necessarily going to work before a three person panel of arbitrators from the AAA (American Arbitration Association). 
 

if you were to try the most Machiavellian take on this, it would be that Boras would just as soon lose in arbitration if that loss strengthens Skubal's resolve to refuse any offer from the Tigers and go to FA as an aggrieved party because that's where the payoff is for Boras. To me, Skubal gives the impression of young man unlikely to manipulated even by his own agent, but I can't deny that's in Boras' interest to have a deep understanding of what makes his star clients tick and Boras is pretty good at looking after his interests. 🤔

Edited 5 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Stormin]

The 19M to 32M difference is small change relative to the long term contract Skubal will eventually sign.  The Tiger can say they will only negotiate contract extensions during the arbitration period and make Skubal/Boras decline a 200M + extension  offer knowing Skubal is one injury away from missing out on a big pay day. 

BTW, agreeing to abide by an arbitration decision and pay a player between 19M and 32M, does not make the Tigers a trash organization.  Under paying employees in the ticket offices,  concessions. ushers, and minor leaguers struggling to make ends meet would make the Tigers a trash organization.

Edited 5 hours ago by Stormin

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Shelton said:

A few notes:

Skubal as a 5+ service time service player is not unique. Nearly every player to reach their final year of arbitration is a 5+ service time player. This is not some secret provision that makes him special. Why is it a story? Because Boras told his media cronies and they ate it up. The reason it’s rarely cited is that it has minimal persuasive value.
 

Slubal is in his third year of arbitration. Not his fourth.
 

That David price contract was a fourth year arbitration award. In Price’s third year he made 14. He went 4-10-14-19.7 over his four arb years.

Juan soto’s record of 31 was also a fourth year arbitration contract. Soto went 8-17-23-31.
 

Corbin Burnes was a three year arb guy. Had won a Cy young. Was coming off multiple star appearances. Received cy young votes multiple years in a row. His three arb salaries were 6-10-15. Now he’s getting 31 from free agency. 

The suggestion from Skubal/boras is that his arbitration salaries should be 4-10-32. A 22 million dollar raise. A 200+% raise. 

Skubal is a fantastic pitcher  Second best in baseball at the moment. But he’s not a unicorn. He’s not the first tier 1 SP or ace or whatever label you want to use. He’s not the first player coming off a cy young. There was one just last year named Tarik Skubal that got over a 100% raise from his prior 4 million dollar salary.

For Skubal and Boras to prevail, they would need to convince an objective and trained neutral arbitration panel that Skubal is so unique that his fair series of arbitration salaries would be at least 4-10-26. 
 

Is there a chance? The panel is human so anything is possible. But they are also huge nerds and they are going to love Scotty Harris.

 

I think you are right...Don't call him Scotty though.  He is definitely a Scott.  

 

[gehringer_2]

11 hours ago, papalawrence said:

None have been pitching overseas, old and on extended IR or recently dfa'd. I

 We just got another one today. This one has even been to independent ball and back.

https://www.freep.com/sports/tigers/

I know, I know, Edman will tell me I shouldn't be snide about refilling the minors, but they keep tossing raw meat to my cynical side.

😉

Edited 4 hours ago by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

When the Tigers start failing on the field as a result of Harris cheaping out on the roster, that’s when I’ll start calling for his head.

[buddha]

43 minutes ago, chasfh said:

When the Tigers start failing on the field as a result of Harris cheaping out on the roster, that’s when I’ll start calling for his head.

blowing the division the way they did last year was failing on the field.  especially since harris' additions at the trade deadline were big culprits on that failing.

that's not cause for harris to get fired, but it should call his process into question, or at least review.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

blowing the division the way they did last year was failing on the field.  especially since harris' additions at the trade deadline were big culprits on that failing.

that's not cause for harris to get fired, but it should call his process into question, or at least review.

How does that compare to coming from behind to make the playoffs after having a 1% chance with only six weeks left? 

[chasfh]

Now even Bowden the ex-GM is piling on.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6961973/2026/01/13/mlb-news-tigers-skubal-bellinger-yankees-labor-talks/

The narrative is really getting away from the team. 

[lordstanley]

A former NHLer describes going through an arbitration session. First four minutes of this clip.

 

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The narrative is really getting away from the team. 

It appears so. ESPN's baseball page has an off season progress report paragraph or two on each team. The Tigers' begins with  "I'm not sure I get the passive Tigers." and ends with "The time is now, folks" 

🐌

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[kdog]

They are going to lose the Skubal pr battle no matter what happens. If they have a good 2026 season and they part ways on good terms, it will be fine. 

The middle path where the team is bad and he gets traded is what will suck.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

How does that compare to coming from behind to make the playoffs after having a 1% chance with only six weeks left? 

i think harris deserves credit for that.

but i dont think he's blameless with what happened last year.  his trade deadline acquisitions - something he has direct control over - were terrible.  they contributed to losing.  thus, he deserves blame for last year's historic collapse.  probably more than he deserves credit for the prior year's amazing end of season run.

your original post gives the impression that you dont think harris has done anything that has affected the team negatively on the field.  if that is your assertion, i disagree.  but i might be reading too much into your post.

again, i dont think he deserves to be fired.  on the whole, i like his approach and agree with most of it.  we will have to see how the prospects progress.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

A former NHLer describes going through an arbitration session. First four minutes of this clip.

 

Mlb and NHL likely have different rules for arbitration.

[Stormin]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Now even Bowden the ex-GM is piling on.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6961973/2026/01/13/mlb-news-tigers-skubal-bellinger-yankees-labor-talks/

The narrative is really getting away from the team. 

 Bowden is a shill for Boras.  First Bowdon repeats the Boras "leadership" message regarding Bregman.  Now Bowden is piling on the Skubal arbitration situation.  Notice Bowden said nothing before the Boras number was released - and all the Skubal arbitration estimates were in the 17M to 23M range