2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[Toddwert]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but how can we know how Skubal, Carpenter and Greene would have developed if Avila was still the GM?  And maybe the current administration didn't develop Torkelson and Mize very well.  I don't think that's true, but there is a lot of speculation in determining how much was talent and how much was development.  

and who hired the guy running player development?

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And OK, I will go ahead and concede Avila was a genius for following the consensus and picking Riley Greene at 1/5 and allowing Scott Harris to turn him into a 2-win player and 2x All-Star.

So, you are sure that Greene would be a bum if Harris were not the GM?  

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but how can we know how Skubal, Carpenter and Greene would have developed if Avila was still the GM?  And maybe the current administration didn't develop Torkelson and Mize very well.  I don't think that's true, but there is a lot of speculation in determining how much was talent and how much was development.  

My personal speculation has always been that Hinch was part of Tork's problems. Early in his career Hinch constantly talked about trying to get Tork to only swing at pitches he could drive, to the point where he had to go back to Toledo to recover some plate coverage. I won't hold that against Hinch because no philosophy can work for every hitter, but just to point out that nobody's going to bat 1000 with player development - it's a 'people' science, meaning to some  some extent it isn't one at all.

Edited Wednesday at 04:01 PM by gehringer_2

[Edman85]

6 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

and who hired the guy running player development?

But did he fully empower him, or hamper him with old school edicts/keeping staff in place to "balance things."

[SoCalTiger]

39 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Meaning Tork? He was the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he's not performing up to that standard yet.

Meaning Casey? He was also the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and I don't think anyone would confuse him with being a star.

Meaning Riley? He was the consensus 1/5 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he is not performing at the consistent All-star-level quality people expect from a fifth overall pick.

Meaning Carpernter? No 19th-round pick is a genius GM move, and he's a flawed hitter who can't field, either.

Meaning Skubal? No 9th-round pick is a genius GM move, and besides, he helped him become great. The Al Avila Tigers had nothing to do with that.

Anyone I'm missing?

In any event, the issue people have with Al Avila is not his ability to draft amateur players. The guy was a head scout, for crying out loud. If he can't draft decent talent, he wouldn't have that job in the first place. It is every other facet of general management he fell short on, unless you can provide an area in which he routinely excelled that that I am overlooking.

This sums up Al for me but you missed a big point in that he put a garbage team on the field to get those low picks year after year after year and yes others did like Houston so I "get it" but it's just "paint by numbers " decision making. 

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It's pretty clear based on industry consensus from myriad articles that the Tigers were way behind on Player Dev at a time it was really taking off in the industry. The turnaround started when Garko took over for Littlefield, and went into overdrive when Harris took over.

I understand that, on average, players have a better chance to succeed under the new system, but you still can't quantify how individual players would have performed under one system versus the other.  

[papalawrence]

Here is "Ping" on radio talking about Skubal trade. From my take it's speculation. He had breakfast with Dave Roberts. He said Harris was on record last year saying that he intended to trade Skubal before free agency. Until I see it posted from others I don't find it credible

 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It's pretty clear based on industry consensus from myriad articles that the Tigers were way behind on Player Dev at a time it was really taking off in the industry. The turnaround started when Garko took over for Littlefield, and went into overdrive when Harris took over.

It's always been my opinion that Avila knew what needed to be done - he knew where DD had let things atrophy. All the things he talked about were basically all the same things Harris talks about, but he wasn't that up to speed himself when he started, and he brought insufficient creativity and urgency to the task. But the one thing we never give Al any benefit of the doubt about is that you don't just start firing people willy-nilly in the Ilitch organization. Some of the inertia could have been coming from ownership unwilling to dump loyal employees abruptly.

Now without doubt, he was a disaster at trades. No need to cut him any slack there.

[Toddwert]

13 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

But did he fully empower him, or hamper him with old school edicts/keeping staff in place to "balance things."

my point once again is that the cupboard wasnt bare like Chas likes to pretend..Harris clearly an upgrade

Edited Wednesday at 04:19 PM by Toddwert

[Arlington]

My god, back in 2016, 2017 and 2018 Avila was working pretty hard at making the Tigers suck.  By 2023 the only contribution by the players or their successors from that era was by Jake and Reese.  You can't win if you can't maintain and develop assets that produce over time and Avila was terrible at that.  After 5 years, you'll have a set of high draft picks and maybe start winning some, but once you draft higher and no longer have the obvious talent to grab in the draft you will quickly fall apart and that was Avila's path.  

Harris' success has been striking.  He floundered in the second half of 2025 into the playoff by the skin of his teeth but he did not rob the future an iota.  He's done well in garnering prospects through trade and draft that has given us winning minor league teams while putting together a winning team at the major league level.   I hope we see trades going into 2026 but I wouldn't cry if they were established players.  I do think everyone should be on the table and I never want to see the Tigers make win it all now moves.  

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

So, you are sure that Greene would be a bum if Harris were not the GM?  

isn't he trying to turn into a bum now?

[oblong]

Project Caesar.  

[kdog]

2 minutes ago, oblong said:

Project Caesar.  

Sam Menzin's legacy...before he left in disgrace.

[Edman85]

5 minutes ago, kdog said:

Sam Menzin's legacy...before he left in disgrace.

I thought it was Sartori who headed that up. Menzin was largely out of the analytics side by the time Avila was in charge.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but how can we know how Skubal, Carpenter and Greene would have developed if Avila was still the GM?  And maybe the current administration didn't develop Torkelson and Mize very well.  I don't think that's true, but there is a lot of speculation in determining how much was talent and how much was development.  

This makes sense if all development is a random crapshoot and past performance is zero indication of actual ability. But based on the track record available to us, it is safe to assume that when it comes to developing players, Al Avila did not know what he was doing, and Scott Harris does.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

So, you are sure that Greene would be a bum if Harris were not the GM?  

No, I am not sure of that.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

This sums up Al for me but you missed a big point in that he put a garbage team on the field to get those low picks year after year after year and yes others did like Houston so I "get it" but it's just "paint by numbers " decision making. 

Yes, big point well stated. 

[oblong]

I don't think the answer is so cut and dry and doesn't have to be an either/or.  I'm willing to concede that Avila was smart enough to know what he didn't know and knew what had to be done and got people here to lay the foundation.  There's a lot that goes into an organization's baseball operations.  It's not just the draft picks and free agent signings, or even the manager and coaches.  I do give Harris a lot of credit for this team's success.  But I also believe that it would have been impossible to achieve that without some things Avila put in place (hint:  It's not just players).  There's no shame in understanding that to fully take advantage of what's there you need someone else to come in and take over and build on it, subtract from it, and pull from it.  You can hire all the right people but do you know how to put it all together?  What assignments to give?    You can say that Harris is doing great but that Al wasn't as bad as the results during his tenure indicate.   

 

 

[Tiger337]

29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

This makes sense if all development is a random crapshoot and past performance is zero indication of actual ability. But based on the track record available to us, it is safe to assume that when it comes to developing players, Al Avila did not know what he was doing, and Scott Harris does.

I really don't see much evidence that the team performance of the last two years is all because of Harris.  I expect to see more evidence at the MLB level of Harrises influence soon, but I have not seen it yet.  

Edited Wednesday at 06:00 PM by Tiger337

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Here is "Ping" on radio talking about Skubal trade. From my take it's speculation. He had breakfast with Dave Roberts. He said Harris was on record last year saying that he intended to trade Skubal before free agency. Until I see it posted from others I don't find it credible

 

Nothing counts until the actual ink is dry.

[Hongbit]

Hopefully these Dodgers rumors along with losing Pete Alonso brings Mets to the table with huge offer.  

[1984Echoes]

31 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I really don't see much evidence that the team performance of the last two years is all because of Harris.  I expect to see more evidence at the MLB level of Harrises influence soon, but I have not seen it yet.  

And is more related to Hinch and Fetter than anything else.

IMO.

Oh... WAIT!!! WHO hired Hinch? Avila?

OK, that also doesn't count for Avila's credit.

Because... 

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Hongbit said:

Hopefully these Dodgers rumors along with losing Pete Alonso brings Mets to the table with huge offer.  

I'd like to hear from credible sources that the Phillies, Mets and Dodgers have gotten into a bidding war over Skubal.

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Nothing counts until the actual ink is dry.

I have seen no credible evidence that there even any ink.  

[1984Echoes]

Right...

Just rumors fluttering in the air...

Like a mirage.