gehringer_2 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: yeah - party ID is pretty hard wired in the US. Irrespective of Platner's issues I would imagine most races look this way regardless of the candidate. Even if you do have a candidate with some crossover appeal from prior GOP demographics it is just going to be at the margins. While Trump is very unpopular, I don't see much evidence that there is going to be some kind of massive Congressional re-alignment like 1932. The majority of Rebubs are staying with their GOP congresscritters. Even if enough peel off at the margin for the Dems to win the Senate it's going to be a very small margin so those basic demos will not have shifted a lot. Edited June 30 by gehringer_2 Quote
oblong Posted June 30 Posted June 30 surprised to see the Free Press endorse McMorrow. I don't know what value that is anymore but it was still surprising to see them pick her over Stevens or Abdul. Quote
romad1 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 5 minutes ago, oblong said: surprised to see the Free Press endorse McMorrow. I don't know what value that is anymore but it was still surprising to see them pick her over Stevens or Abdul. I'd probably go with her if I voted in Michigan. She's feisty. Quote
oblong Posted June 30 Posted June 30 I liked her speech a few years ago but her campaign hasn't been that impressive to me. She's running a commerical about the Gordie where she says 'Open the damn bridge'. Seems amateurish. First, that's not something a US Senator can do, second, it's a direct copy of Gretch's "Fix the damn roads" Quote
Motown Bombers Posted June 30 Posted June 30 The more I hear McMorrow talk, the less I like her. She can’t seem to pick a lane. She spends a lot of energy attacking the party, she talks about the people deciding but she was one of the rat****ers who forced Biden out. She seems to want to be a normal progressive but tries to balance the crazies in the party. Quote
chasfh Posted June 30 Author Posted June 30 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: So, bottom line this for us: Susan Collins for you, then? Quote
Motown Bombers Posted June 30 Posted June 30 40 minutes ago, chasfh said: So, bottom line this for us: Susan Collins for you, then? Yes. Platner is a weak candidate. We had to nominate this Nazi domestic abuser because he supposedly appeals to men and white working class and he’s worse with those demos than Biden. His polling is worse than Sara Gideon who lost to Collins. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: The more I hear McMorrow talk, the less I like her. She can’t seem to pick a lane. She spends a lot of energy attacking the party, she talks about the people deciding but she was one of the rat****ers who forced Biden out. She seems to want to be a normal progressive but tries to balance the crazies in the party. I don't see you get a whole lot of differences in Washington outcomes with McMorrow vs Stevens dispite McMorrow's bid to position herself as more progressive. But I'd venture there is a risk that they split the vote enough for Sayed to win the primary. Quote
romad1 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Yes. Platner is a weak candidate. We had to nominate this Nazi domestic abuser because he supposedly appeals to men and white working class and he’s worse with those demos than Biden. His polling is worse than Sara Gideon who lost to Collins. seems like a provable assertion. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 38 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Yes. Platner is a weak candidate. We had to nominate this Nazi domestic abuser because he supposedly appeals to men and white working class and he’s worse with those demos than Biden. His polling is worse than Sara Gideon who lost to Collins. I still find it totally weird how Mills is still so underwater. Doesn't seem to be much in the way of buyer's remorse from Maine dems yet. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted June 30 Posted June 30 28 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I still find it totally weird how Mills is still so underwater. Doesn't seem to be much in the way of buyer's remorse from Maine dems yet. What exactly is still so underwater? Her approval is 50/50 right now. Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted June 30 Posted June 30 There hasn't been a ton of great polling lately for the Michigan Senate race, but what polling there has been, is averaging out to show Abdul in the lead in the primary. When you look back to May and go until the most recent polls released here in June, they show Abdul in the lead in the primary. Many of them also show Abdul as the strongest candidate to take on Mike Rogers in a head to head general election matchup. Polling is often famously wrong, so who knows what is actually the case. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: What exactly is still so underwater? Her approval is 50/50 right now. She's -8 on favorable/unfavorable. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 (edited) the striking thing is the generational break - Platner has a huge lead in the under 45 vote. It's like the majority of the younger people just don't care what people have done on social media and in tattoo parlors - which I can believe. Edited June 30 by gehringer_2 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: There hasn't been a ton of great polling lately for the Michigan Senate race, but what polling there has been, is averaging out to show Abdul in the lead in the primary. When you look back to May and go until the most recent polls released here in June, they show Abdul in the lead in the primary. Many of them also show Abdul as the strongest candidate to take on Mike Rogers in a head to head general election matchup. Polling is often famously wrong, so who knows what is actually the case. Hate three way races. So will McMorrow and Steven split the "I'm willing to vote for a woman vote" and make ElSayed the winner, or will McMorrow and El Sayed split the progressive vote and leave Stevens the winner? 🤷♂️ Edited June 30 by gehringer_2 Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted June 30 Posted June 30 49 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: the striking thing is the generational break - Platner has a huge lead in the under 45 vote. It's like the majority of the younger people just don't care what people have done on social media and in tattoo parlors - which I can believe. They also don't feel the average, career politician has tangibly improved their quality of life in a meaningful way. They feel those same politicians are too wrapped up in serving corporate interests, donors, lobbyists, and not the average American. They often aren't wrong in these feelings either. So when a populist or progressive comes along promising accountability and something radically different, they go for it. Now, I'm an under 40 millennial myself, though just barely under 40. Over the last decade I've become far left of center from what I used to be in my teens and early/mid 20s. That said, I would have voted for Janet Mills because Platner just has one too many bad things and skeletons. The Nazi tattoo that I think he lied about, treating woman like ****, awful posts about sexual assault. It all adds up to being too much, one strike too many. Furthermore, we look like hypocrites when we call Trump a Nazi or a fascist and then go out and nominate a guy with a Totenkopf tattoo on his chest. It's a very bad look for the party that claims it's better than the other guys. I get the appeal of Platner, but there's just too much problematic stuff there. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted June 30 Posted June 30 Younger generations don’t want career politicians but nut themselves over Bernie Sanders whose never worked in the private sector and been in politics longer than they’ve been alive. Quote
chasfh Posted June 30 Author Posted June 30 Yeah, yeah, I know, Trump is too stupid to know his ass from hole in the ground. But man, in terms of exciting voters to come to the polls, this is a brilliant move. Quote
CMRivdogs Posted June 30 Posted June 30 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Hate three way races. So will McMorrow and Steven split the "I'm willing to vote for a woman vote" and make ElSayed the winner, or will McMorrow and El Sayed split the progressive vote and leave Stevens the winner? 🤷♂️ We've got a seven way race for the chance to go after Congressman Newport News Shipyard. It's the best argument I've seen for ranked choice voting Quote
oblong Posted June 30 Posted June 30 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: the striking thing is the generational break - Platner has a huge lead in the under 45 vote. It's like the majority of the younger people just don't care what people have done on social media and in tattoo parlors - which I can believe. And numb to “nazi attacks”. Or an element of “they say that about everyone”. Quote
romad1 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 You guys got me wondering about polls. EPIC MRA is the gold standard for Michigan. They don't appear to have a horse race poll about the Gov and Senate but they do have an issues poll out. https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/press/Stwd_Survey_June2026_Media_Freq.pdf Directionally it doesn't look good at all for Trump's party. Quote 03. Overall, how would you rate the job that Donald Trump is doing as President? Would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor? 16% Excellent 17% Pretty good 33% TOTAL POSITIVE 63% TOTAL NEGATIVE 12% Just fair 51% Poor 4% Undecided/Refused Quote 16. President Trump has said that high gas prices are a “small price to pay” for his war in Iran if it can accomplish the goals he stated as the reasons for starting the war. Do you agree or disagree? [IF AGREE/DISAGREE, ASK: “Would that be strongly or somewhat (agree/ disagree)?” AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] 22% Strongly agree 11% Somewhat agree 33% TOTAL AGREE 63% TOTAL DISAGREE 9% Somewhat disagree 54% Strongly disagree 4% Undecided/Refused Quote
romad1 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 Tariffs not so good Quote 18. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the United States imposing tariffs on imported goods? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE, ASK: “Would that be strongly or somewhat (support/oppose)?” AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] 25% Strongly support 18% Somewhat support 43% TOTAL SUPPORT 48% TOTAL OPPOSE 13% Somewhat oppose 35% Strongly oppose 9% Undecided/Refused Quote
romad1 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 Another Tariff one Quote __19. Who do you think ultimately pays most of the cost of imposing tariffs on imported goods? [READ 1 THROUGH 3 BELOW – CODE BEST RESPONSE] 76% American consumers 10% Foreign companies exporting goods to the U.S. 9% American businesses that import goods 5% Undecided/Refused Quote
romad1 Posted June 30 Posted June 30 Canadian Auto parts are popular in these parts, Sir! Quote 22. Do you support or oppose imposing tariffs on auto and manufacturing parts coming from Canada? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE, ASK: “Would that be strongly or somewhat (support/oppose)?” AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] 15% Strongly support 16% Somewhat support 31% TOTAL SUPPORT 63% TOTAL OPPOSE 14% Somewhat oppose 49% Strongly oppose 6% Undecided/Refused Quote
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