pfife Posted August 5 Posted August 5 (edited) Weird how similar bummers and lolic poasts are these days. Oh well prolly coincidence Edited August 5 by pfife Quote
MichiganCardinal Posted August 5 Posted August 5 How John James continues to get his name on the ballot is an enigma. If he couldn’t win a Senate seat over Stabenow in 2018 or Peters in 2020, how is he going to win a Governor seat over Benson in 2026? I hope his election denying bull**** bites him in the ass too. El-Sayed should be able to defeat Rogers too. He’s not a perfect candidate (neither was Stevens) but he’s a likable enough character in what may be a bloodbath cycle for Rs. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 At least El-Genocide is pivoting to Rogers unlike Platner who continued to attack Dems. Quote
oblong Posted August 5 Posted August 5 Mike Rogers liked to play the tough guy card... Sayed is ripped. He will lose that fight. He'd have much rather gone "against the girl". I see they're already using Sayed's real name, trying to Barack Hussain Obama him. Go ahead. They support pedophiles so that battle will be lost. 1 Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 **** it. I cannot in good conscience not vote for a Democrat. I'll vote for Abdul and hope for a challenger in 2032. I'm more focused on flipping MI-10. I think this election will go more like Pennsylvania in 2022. Benson will cruise to a victory like Shapiro and Abdul will win a close one like Fetterman. 1 Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 So this little **** has turned into a left wing whack job. It isn't the first time he spread false information. Quote
oblong Posted August 5 Posted August 5 yeah I unfollowed him quite while ago, I forgot why, but he was obviously not just a data person to me so I saw no interest. My son referenced that tweet after we saw Spider Man on Sunday night, but I never saw it, that explains why. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 It's suspicious these emotional support polls and influencers pushing them ramped up bigly after Whitmer's endorsement. Quote
Tigerbomb13 Posted August 5 Posted August 5 47 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: **** it. I cannot in good conscience not vote for a Democrat. I'll vote for Abdul and hope for a challenger in 2032. I'm more focused on flipping MI-10. I think this election will go more like Pennsylvania in 2022. Benson will cruise to a victory like Shapiro and Abdul will win a close one like Fetterman. Thank you for doing this. Seriously. Quote
CMRivdogs Posted August 5 Posted August 5 My favorite Never Trumper with a look at the Michigan Senate race. https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/the-case-against-el-sayed-doomerism?r=45wcm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email Quote Also concerning is the voting pattern. This race had become a referendum on El-Sayed. He was the main character. He was so far ahead and had so much energy behind his campaign that the question for Democrats wasn’t so much Stevens vs. El-Sayed, but, “Are you sure you want to roll with this guy?” When Slotkin beat Mike Rogers in 2024, she won by a total of 19,000 votes out of 5.6 million votes cast. How did she do it? She rolled up huge margins in Wayne, Washtenaw, and Ingham Counties where she won with Saddam numbers. She dominated 8 of the 11 most populous counties. But she also hung on in the rural counties. Slotkin only dropped below 30 percent in a handful of rural outposts. The difference between hitting 30 percent, or falling to 20 percent, in a county with 5,000 voters isn’t much—500 votes. But again: She won by 19,000 votes, total. And there are a lot of those small, rural counties. So the blueprint for a Democrat winning Michigan is: Absolutely crush with the black vote in Wayne, Oakland, and other dense urban counties, but also . . . Find every vote you can in the small, rural counties. Lose by 30 points, not 40 points. El-Sayed only did half of that. El-Sayed lost Wayne and Oakland by >6 points. This tells us that he wasn’t able to excite the African-American voters who are the foundation of the party in Michigan. (Our Jonathan Cohn had his eye on this possibility, and wrote about it last week.) Now maybe El-Sayed turns out those voters in November. But remember: He doesn’t just need huge turnout in those counties—he needs to absolutely crush the margins. I am slightly concerned with El-Sayed’s numbers in Macomb, too. Macomb is an affluent white Detroit suburb where Mike Rogers did very well in 2024. El-Sayed lost Macomb by 7 points. He’s going to need to get a bunch of votes out of there and probably can’t afford to lose Macomb by >10 points. Last thing: Another hidden advantage for El-Sayed is that Francesca Hong is going to act as a human shield for his campaign. Every time the media has a “Look at the radical DSA” story, it’ll focus on Hong and El-Sayed will seem mainstream by comparison. Don’t sleep on this dynamic. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: My favorite Never Trumper with a look at the Michigan Senate race. https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/the-case-against-el-sayed-doomerism?r=45wcm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email I think they got a lot of this backwards. Comparing Abdul to Slotkin just doesn't work. Abdul is the Hill Harper candidate. He outperformed Harper. Stevens was the Slotkin. The environment in 2024 favored Republicans. Trump won Michigan. I believe Benson will win comfortably so Abdul does not need to split tickets. I would also like to know how many voted for Stevens simply because they thought she was more electable? Unlike 2024, the normie Dems are already backing Abdul and not going to rat**** him like he did to Biden. Quote
oblong Posted August 5 Posted August 5 AES's voting results in Dearborn, Hamtramck,Dearborn Hts, and probably Melvindale too will make Saddam jealous. There's a passion behind him I've not seen here in a long time. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 I wonder how many people voted for Stevens simply because they thought she had a better chance at beating Rogers? Those voters should be easy crossovers. Black voters are pragmatic and will support him, he just needs to turn them out. Quote
ewsieg Posted August 5 Posted August 5 32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I wonder how many people voted for Stevens simply because they thought she had a better chance at beating Rogers? Those voters should be easy crossovers. Black voters are pragmatic and will support him, he just needs to turn them out. That's the only reason why I voted for her. I am sympathetic to the AIPAC pushback, but would settle for a democrat and not sure El-Sayed truly is. I know he says he's a capitalist, he not only took the DSA endorsement, he seemed to embrace it. I won't say I won't vote for him in November, but I won't vote for any R unless they are clear they are anti-Trump. Guess I want to see how he runs. Quote
pfife Posted August 5 Posted August 5 I find that as a very suspect basis for which to vote. That is the type of analysis that contributed to the rise of trump. I remember folks crossover voting for him in 2016 primaries because they thought he would be the easiest to beat. Its also always based on either polls (undependable) or just outright speculation (undependable). Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 8 minutes ago, ewsieg said: That's the only reason why I voted for her. I am sympathetic to the AIPAC pushback, but would settle for a democrat and not sure El-Sayed truly is. I know he says he's a capitalist, he not only took the DSA endorsement, he seemed to embrace it. I won't say I won't vote for him in November, but I won't vote for any R unless they are clear they are anti-Trump. Guess I want to see how he runs. He's a millionaire who owns investment properties in Dubai so he certainly like capitalism for himself at least. Quote
oblong Posted August 5 Posted August 5 The democrats need to be a big tent party. I have no problem voting for AES even though I don’t like some of what he says. That’s life. And it’s normal. If you agree with everything then chances are you aren’t thinking things thru. 1 Quote
romad1 Posted August 5 Posted August 5 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: So this little **** has turned into a left wing whack job. It isn't the first time he spread false information. Anyone not on Bsky isn’t serious. At least as bsky is currently. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 I learned that umich cofounded VoteHub which is partnered with Kalshi. VoteHub provides election data to Kalshi for money so it's a huge conflict of interest when he manipulates markets like that. Quote
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Posted August 5 And there he goes. Jesus this asshat makes it so difficult. Quote
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