2026 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[chasfh]

I took a look at how players are performing against their ZIPs wRC+ projections so far, by team, and ranked the teams by percent who are underachieving by -10% or more. Overachieving is by +10% or more. Everyone else is considered to be close. Minimum 70 plate appearances for players.

|Team|Over%|Close%|Under%|Total|
|----|-----|------|------|-----|
|SDP |18.2%|9.1%  |72.7% |11   |
|PHI |20.0%|10.0% |70.0% |10   |
|BOS |28.6%|7.1%  |64.3% |14   |
|MIA |23.1%|23.1% |53.8% |13   |
|DET |38.5%|7.7%  |53.8% |13   |
|ARI |30.8%|15.4% |53.8% |13   |
|NYM |21.4%|28.6% |50.0% |14   |
|CIN |38.5%|15.4% |46.2% |13   |
|LAA |27.3%|27.3% |45.5% |11   |
|TEX |28.6%|28.6% |42.9% |14   |
|TOR |42.9%|14.3% |42.9% |14   |
|ATH |41.7%|16.7% |41.7% |12   |
|KCR |8.3% |50.0% |41.7% |12   |
|STL |27.3%|36.4% |36.4% |11   |
|MIN |35.7%|28.6% |35.7% |14   |
|SFG |33.3%|33.3% |33.3% |12   |
|PIT |41.7%|25.0% |33.3% |12   |
|NYY |38.5%|30.8% |30.8% |13   |
|COL |30.8%|38.5% |30.8% |13   |
|BAL |30.8%|38.5% |30.8% |13   |
|SEA |46.2%|23.1% |30.8% |13   |
|MIL |50.0%|21.4% |28.6% |14   |
|ATL |63.6%|9.1%  |27.3% |11   |
|HOU |40.0%|33.3% |26.7% |15   |
|CHC |25.0%|50.0% |25.0% |12   |
|CLE |41.7%|33.3% |25.0% |12   |
|LAD |30.8%|46.2% |23.1% |13   |
|WSN |42.9%|35.7% |21.4% |14   |
|CHW |58.3%|25.0% |16.7% |12   |
|TBR |53.8%|30.8% |15.4% |13   |

Yes, the Tigers rank among the teams who have the most players underachieving, but if you eyeball the Over% numbers, we also have more overachievers than many of the other teams that have a lot of underachievers. That’s because we have almost no one who is within 10% of their projected wRC+, according to ZIPS.

Here are the Tigers’ overachievers, by the way:

|Name           |PA |wRC+ Actual|wRC+ Proj|% Above|
|---------------|---|-----------|---------|-------|
|Dillon Dingler |266|138        |96       |+43.7% |
|Javier Báez    |82 |91         |72       |+25.2% |
|Gleyber Torres |189|130        |110      |+18.1% |
|Kevin McGonigle|300|129        |113      |+14.0% |
|Riley Greene   |297|140        |125      |+12.3% |

[IdahoBert]

So today is an off day, June 18, and the Tigers have 10 straight games at home - and this is do or die - against the White Sox, the Yankees and Houston. This is where the club needs to make up its yawning deficit. They are playing just a little over .500 at home. It really feels like the season is hanging by a thread on this home stand. 

[roarintiger1]

They need at least a 7-3 homestand to keep the hopes alive.  

[monkeytargets39]

Trei Cruz, you are a Tiger!

 

wonder if that means Wenceel is hurt pretty bad

[Tiger337]

Cruz is a switch hitter who plays every position.  Hinch pinched himself to make sure it's really true. 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Cruz is a switch hitter who plays every position.  Hinch pinched himself to make sure it's really true. 

but is he a real switch hitter, or just a guy like Wenceel who sets up on the other side but can't hit anything there? Just askin'......

[Dan Gilmore]

Looking at his reference stats it looks like he isn’t much of a hitter from the right side, maybe not awful, but far less offense. Mostly looking at 2025 stats-he wasn’t platooned. Looking at defense I think he is potentially good in the OF and 2B, not great at SS, and actually poor at 3B. I have never seen him play, so not sure how accurate that all was.

[IdahoBert]

42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Cruz is a switch hitter who plays every position.  Hinch pinched himself to make sure it's really true. 

Cruz is a .236 career minor league BA guy. Fantastic! Just what we’re looking for! Unfortunately, he’s 6 feet tall instead of 5‘7“. So I don’t know if you could slot him in as the required speedy short Latino #2 guy in the batting order in front of your “best hitter” who’s in the #3 spot and your “slugger” who’s batting “cleanup.“

I will only feel good about this guy’s place in the batting order if Logan Reever can make sense of it for me.

[Tiger337]

From what I gather, Cruz is mostly a LHH, draws a lot of walks (.358 lifetime OBP), runs well and fields capably (CF, SS, 3B).  I think he would have been the first guy called up after the Baez injury except he was also hurt at the time.  

Edited June 18 by Tiger337

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Looking at his reference stats it looks like he isn’t much of a hitter from the right side, maybe not awful, but far less offense. Mostly looking at 2025 stats-he wasn’t platooned. Looking at defense I think he is potentially good in the OF and 2B, not great at SS, and actually poor at 3B. I have never seen him play, so not sure how accurate that all was.

I have read that he fields capably but they say that about a lot of minor league infielders and it doesn't always turn out that way in the Majors.   

[Tigermojo]

Cruz family is the fifth to have three generations in MLB.

[Dan Gilmore]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

From what I gather, Cruz is mostly a LHH, draws a lot of walks (.358 lifetime OBP), runs well and fields capably (CF, SS, 3B).  I think he would have been the first guy called up after the Baez injury except he was also hurt at the time.  

While at the mercy of MLiB scorers, his fielding percentages at SS are mediocre and actually poor at 3B.

I think Lee has looked decent at second, so I wouldn’t want to move him around every other game, but maybe Cruz at second, Lee and Keith share third with Keith also DHing. Or just put Cruz in the OF.

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

While at the mercy of MLiB scorers, his fielding percentages at SS are mediocre and actually poor at 3B.

I think Lee has looked decent at second, so I wouldn’t want to move him around every other game, but maybe Cruz at second, Lee and Keith share third with Keith also DHing. Or just put Cruz in the OF.

Now I see his fielding tool is 45 according to FanGraphs, so that's below average.  His best tools are running (50) and power (50)

[Sports_Freak]

12 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

So today is an off day, June 18, and the Tigers have 10 straight games at home - and this is do or die - against the White Sox, the Yankees and Houston. This is where the club needs to make up its yawning deficit. They are playing just a little over .500 at home. It really feels like the season is hanging by a thread on this home stand. 

My son and I are going Saturday. Melton is supposed to pitch but if he can't go, it's a bullpen game? I sure hope he's OK.

[Sports_Freak]

13 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

So today is an off day, June 18, and the Tigers have 10 straight games at home - and this is do or die - against the White Sox, the Yankees and Houston. This is where the club needs to make up its yawning deficit. They are playing just a little over .500 at home. It really feels like the season is hanging by a thread on this home stand. 

And one other thing...the WSox are coming to town with no off day. And they're playing a night game in NY. I hope they use up their entire BP...🤣🤣

[chasfh]

Didn’t we talk up this guy as a prospect, like, five years ago? His best qualities appear to be taking walks by not chasing outside the zone. But he strikes out a ton because he both takes a lot of pitches and misses on balls in the zone. When he does hit the ball it’s hard, it’s the making contact that’s the challenge for him. He’s going to see mostly offspeed and breaking stuff because all he can hit are fastballs, which he’ll see only to set him up. He has an 83 wRC+ in Triple A, and he turns 28 in two weeks. Unless they see something in him that’s not reflected in actual results, it’s hard not to see this as a novelty call-up.

[4hzglory]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Didn’t we talk up this guy as a prospect, like, five years ago? His best qualities appear to be taking walks by not chasing outside the zone. But he strikes out a ton because he both takes a lot of pitches and misses on balls in the zone. When he does hit the ball it’s hard, it’s the making contact that’s the challenge for him. He’s going to see mostly offspeed and breaking stuff because all he can hit are fastballs, which he’ll see only to set him up. He has an 83 wRC+ in Triple A, and he turns 28 in two weeks. Unless they see something in him that’s not reflected in actual results, it’s hard not to see this as a novelty call-up.

He kind of broke out a bit last year at AA.  He’s not much of a prospect but hopefully better than Perez in the field and getting on base.  

[monkeytargets39]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Didn’t we talk up this guy as a prospect, like, five years ago? His best qualities appear to be taking walks by not chasing outside the zone. But he strikes out a ton because he both takes a lot of pitches and misses on balls in the zone. When he does hit the ball it’s hard, it’s the making contact that’s the challenge for him. He’s going to see mostly offspeed and breaking stuff because all he can hit are fastballs, which he’ll see only to set him up. He has an 83 wRC+ in Triple A, and he turns 28 in two weeks. Unless they see something in him that’s not reflected in actual results, it’s hard not to see this as a novelty call-up.

He’s up because he’s on the 40-man and he can play outfield.  Not because of performance.

[Tenacious D]

I think the entire draft class of 2020 has now played for the MLB Tigers.

[chasfh]

I’m just saying, don’t get too used to him and don’t expect anything out of him. 

[Tiger337]

x

Edited June 19 by Tiger337

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I think the entire draft class of 2020 has now played for the MLB Tigers.

Except for Daniel Cabrera.  Excellent draft class overall though.    

[Shelton]

9 hours ago, chasfh said:

Didn’t we talk up this guy as a prospect, like, five years ago? His best qualities appear to be taking walks by not chasing outside the zone. But he strikes out a ton because he both takes a lot of pitches and misses on balls in the zone. When he does hit the ball it’s hard, it’s the making contact that’s the challenge for him. He’s going to see mostly offspeed and breaking stuff because all he can hit are fastballs, which he’ll see only to set him up. He has an 83 wRC+ in Triple A, and he turns 28 in two weeks. Unless they see something in him that’s not reflected in actual results, it’s hard not to see this as a novelty call-up.

I recall he had a breakout year last season, and it was good enough that they actually protected this 28 year old in the rule 5. I think he also was having a very nice spring and was in various discussions among the sophisticates as having a chance to break camp with the team. But it is 2026 so he became injured. 
 

He definitely had a long road to the majors and was looming like a flop for a long time. 

[chasfh]

I would agree this is a not an egregious callup that’s going to cost us the playoffs—that possibility is practically gone, anyway. But it’s not as though the guy is banging down the door. There always a chance any call-up surprises to the upside, but Trei’s skill set and age strongly suggest he won’t be one of them. But it’ll be fun to see how he does coming out of the gate.

[Shelton]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I would agree this is a not an egregious callup that’s going to cost us the playoffs—that possibility is practically gone, anyway. But it’s not as though the guy is banging down the door. There always a chance any call-up surprises to the upside, but Trei’s skill set and age strongly suggest he won’t be one of them. But it’ll be fun to see how he does coming out of the gate.

Agreed. He’s not banging down the door. My primary point is that he did earn his 40 man spot and with that comes these opportunities. And his plate appearances so far this season were limited by injury so it’s also not unreasonable to give a bit of a pass if he’s having a slow start and to put a bit more stock into his breakout from last year. His savant page for 2025 was pretty red, which is not bad for a SS/CF. 
 

He’s also an old 27, rather than 28. Don’t they look at age as of July 1?