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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

... So I wasn't particularly then and really still am not all that worked up over Crimea. But Ukraine has morphed into a bigger issue for the overall future of Europe

Russia's only southern warm water naval base is in Sevastopol. There is no possible way that Putin would lose that to the potential that Ukraine joins NATO.

I also am not worked up over Crimea because I look at that as a military and political reality. Plus some of the Russian-controlled history as you've mentioned... Even though Crimea has changed hands throughout history, multiple times (originally the Greeks, who founded the coastal villages at the time, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Crimean Tatars, etc...), and, therefore do not recognize Russian sovereignty based on "history".... I fallback on the military reality of Crimea: No. Possible. Way. Putin. Will Lose. Crimea.

On the other hand, I have contempt for him running Russian troops into parts of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine (the Donbass) simply because he wants to screw with his neighboring countries.

Edited by 1984Echoes
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12 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Fair enough... I just really wish that people arguing the position highlighted above would just freely admit that they do not care about the wishes of the majority of 43 million Ukranians. Don't couch it in history or sphere of influence or anything like that, just admit that one doesn't give a shit.

That never happens with the Putin apologists tho... 

They may not care about Ukrainians, but they do care about pissing off liberals who they believe want to defend Ukraine, and really, isn’t that the crux of that biscuit?

Edited by chasfh
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My prediction is that Vlad is will enter Ukraine and spend a few weeks doing more saber rattling than actual wartime damage.   He will walk away from the negotiation table with all the Western leaders and as tensions rise towards possible WW3, he will choose to negotiate with his favorite asset, Trump.   Vlad backs down and Trump takes credit and launches his campaign back to the White House.   The plan all along was to get Russia back in control of the White House and not Kiev.  

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21 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

My prediction is that Vlad is will enter Ukraine and spend a few weeks doing more saber rattling than actual wartime damage.   He will walk away from the negotiation table with all the Western leaders and as tensions rise towards possible WW3, he will choose to negotiate with his favorite asset, Trump.   Vlad backs down and Trump takes credit and launches his campaign back to the White House.   The plan all along was to get Russia back in control of the White House and not Kiev.  

He's going to hammer Ukraine.  Its going to be extremely bloody because there are plenty of Ukrainians who are also spoiling for a fight.   The Russians are terrible at the beginning of wars because they are slovenly.   I don't see an endgame that ends up well unless Putin is driven from power somehow. 

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23 minutes ago, romad1 said:

He's going to hammer Ukraine.  Its going to be extremely bloody because there are plenty of Ukrainians who are also spoiling for a fight.   The Russians are terrible at the beginning of wars because they are slovenly.   I don't see an endgame that ends up well unless Putin is driven from power somehow. 

Yes, you have to wonder about the fighting trim/moral of the Russian army. Still conscripts right? And does that play well with high tech HW?

The Chechens cut them to shreds. Putin supposedly has changed all that, but if the underlying sociology is still the same does a lot of new hardware fix it?

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yes, you have to wonder about the fighting trim/moral of the Russian army. Still conscripts right? And does that play well with high tech HW?

The Chechens cut them to shreds. Putin supposedly has changed all that, but if the underlying sociology is still the same does a lot of new hardware fix it?

It’s a mix: Professional 1/3, conscripts 1/3 and PMCs (private military contractors). Ukraine has a lot of the latter as well.  The militias in Ukraine are similar to the US Civil War when rich men would raise regiments for their own vainglory.  

Edited by romad1
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3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yes, you have to wonder about the fighting trim/moral of the Russian army. Still conscripts right? And does that play well with high tech HW?

The Chechens cut them to shreds. Putin supposedly has changed all that, but if the underlying sociology is still the same does a lot of new hardware fix it?

They've updated significantly since Chechnya and have shown their improvement on the battlefield in Syria, Ukraine and Kazakhstan... Not world-beating competition... but they're no longer a struggling military power...

This will be bloody with lots of death on both sides.

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14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Not going to lie, when I first saw the picture I thought she was a Trumper in the Michigan militia. 

If Canada was responsible for a genocide in our country and had imprisoned thousands of us for the bulk of the last century . . . all the American gun strokes would have anywhere near the reason to be as passionate as the Ukrainians have been... Hopefully it matters. 

Edited by romad1
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5 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

So to clarify my nephew (AB Ranger) is NOT in Ukraine. My sister misunderstood him. He is at the border of Moldova in Colosova. They are processing people fleeing Ukraine. 

good deal.  I have a feeling the people fleeing will be a flood shortly. 

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