2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[sabretooth]

50 minutes ago, casimir said:

MLB's top 20 offseason trade candidates: Byron Buxton, Josh Hader, and Craig Kimbrel among big names

A couple of Tiger notes that have kicked around MTS/MTF:

I don't see where Hosmer fits in with that length of a contract.  Myers could be a one & done, but would the clumsy OF work be worth it?  Hassell had a nice pro ball debut, but I don't know much else about him.

DeJong's bat has declined every season since his rookie year.  His BABIP, line drive/ground ball/fly ball rates were all awful last season.  Does he just need a trip to a decent eye doctor?

DeJong could be the next Jhonny P...but in a SS rich year, when we desperately need a dependable or plus SS, he would be a disappointing risk of failure to me.

[chasfh]

We obviously have no need for Hosmer. I’m also not sure of our need for Myers. If we slot him into for left field, are we basically giving up on Baddoo/Haase out there? Or would the idea be to move Baddoo and his defense to center as the main platoon option with Derek Hill? How bad do we need yet another top prospect, which is a bit of a gamble in its own right? And wouldn’t someone have to take Hosmer in addition to Myers to get that prospect? This one I don’t see.

DeJong is a little more interesting. His profile seems to keep flipping from hard hitter-bad defense to banjo-hitter-great defense depending on the year. If he could somehow unlock both sides of the ball at the same time, he could be a potential All-Star. He would be basically a two-year experiment for a total of less than $20 million. If we can’t get a top FA SS, and we are cool with booting sunk costs if he doesn’t work out, he might be worth a shot. Not sure what the Cards would take back in trade from us since they are pretty fixed at 3B for a while, unless Arenado opts out. 

Edited November 6, 2021 by chasfh

[1984Echoes]

13 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

If your right then he will probably be a Tiger.

I would be perfectly fine with that.

[1984Echoes]

12 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Gausman is another potentially great starting pitcher. Some may feel he is a product of SF and their pitching whisperers though. 

I'll add him to my top 5 list.

[Sports_Freak]

14 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

So, they should never sign any top players and just hope that all their prospects come through?  Every big signing is going to come with risks.  That includes eventually signing their own players.  

Not what I'm saying. I'm asking if we should trust Al Avila to find and sign a huge long term contract to any player at any position. I'm just not a big fan of these huge guaranteed contracts.

[casimir]

17 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

DeJong could be the next Jhonny P...but in a SS rich year, when we desperately need a dependable or plus SS, he would be a disappointing risk of failure to me.

It would seem like he wouldn't be a target unless all the FA SSs go elsewhere and/or the Tigers pull in top tiered type SPs.

[1984Echoes]

11 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Hopefully their improved approach to sabermetrics can help with that. They definitely need more arms because I don't see much improvement from the defense.

Signing almost ANY FA SS will VASTLY improve the defense.

Bringing up Tork to play 1B and leaving Schoop at 2B and Cabrera 90% at DH will vastly improve the defense.

Hill getting a lot more CF play and Greene in CF or RF will vastly improve the defense.

Replacing Ramos & other catching weak links with Barnhart will vastly improve the defense.

What exactly are you looking at that you don't see much improvement from the defense?

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

That's why I hope the plan is for the Tigers to consider him no more than end of the rotation this season.  Fill out towards the top of the rotation.

If you sign one of Wood-Gausman-Verlander...

Our rotation is Mize-Skubal-Verlander-Manning (just to insert a name...)

Whoever we sign is immediately at least a #3 for us and Manning is now at the back end (4th/5th starter).

Who else at the back end? I predict signings like Peralta/ Teheran, plus competition from Alexander, Wentz & Faedo for the 5th spot.

In 2023 it's Mize-Skubal-Turnbull-Manning plus 5th spot. Which would include JV/ Wood/ Gausman if they are signed to more than 1 year...

[1984Echoes]

11 hours ago, sabretooth said:

I ran an analysis a few times....the gains we can expect from Mize/Manning/Skubal/Alexander ...

That's 4/5ths of a starting rotation.

Leaving only 1 spot to fill.

[1984Echoes]

13 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Not what I'm saying. I'm asking if we should trust Al Avila to find and sign a huge long term contract to any player at any position. I'm just not a big fan of these huge guaranteed contracts.

So lets never sign a FA.

[casimir]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We obviously have no need for Hosmer. I’m also not sure of our need for Myers. If we slot him into for left field, are we basically giving up on Baddoo/Haase out there? Or would the idea be to move Baddoo and his defense to center as the main platoon option with Derek Hill? How bad do we need yet another top prospect, which is a bit of a gamble in its own right? And wouldn’t someone have to take Hosmer in addition to Myers to get that prospect? This one I don’t see.

I wouldn't take Hosmer & Myers to get a prospect.  For one, Hosmer has no place on the Tigers.  There's just nowhere for him unless Torkleson suddenly becomes a 3Bdude and Cabrera retires.  Then they could have Hosmer/Torkelson/Candelario bouncing around the infield corners and DH, but that ain't likely.

Grossman starts in the OF.  Baddoo has probably earned a roster spot.  Hill's health.... I don't know.  Is Greene ready for MLB?  That might be the OF there, Grossman in a corner with Greene/Baddoo/Hill filling out CF and the other corner.  A 5th OF would likely be someone that can handle IF as well.

Or would they gamble with 2 lefty hitting CFs in Greene/Baddoo and corners of Grossman/Myers/Baddoo in order to grab a prospect?  This would probably assume Hill in Toledo, if he has options.  Myers' bat would be welcome for a season, but defensively its a tough fit.

Is Grossman a trade chip this offseason?

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, casimir said:

... Is Grossman a trade chip this offseason?

No during this offseason. Maybe at the trade deadline.

But if we're competing for a playoff spot probably not.

Daz Cameron or Reyes would have to be able to push him out of his spot and I see that as unlikely.

[casimir]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

No during this offseason. Maybe at the trade deadline.

But if we're competing for a playoff spot probably not.

Daz Cameron or Reyes would have to be able to push him out of his spot and I see that as unlikely.

Let's simplify things a bit.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, casimir said:

Let's simplify things a bit.

Hah!

Of course!!!

[RatkoVarda]

Myers IMO would be a good addition. Grossman just had a career year, can he repeat? Baddoo could surge, also he could struggle. Greene and Tork will be in Detroit, but when? Miggy has huge injury and production risks at his age. It would not be a problem if they had 6 productive guys for 5 positions.

He is waaaay overpaid, so SD would need to add a significant sweetener, and they are probably very motivated to gain some payroll flexibility.

Edited November 6, 2021 by RatkoVarda

[Sports_Freak]

19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

So lets never sign a FA.

Yeah, like my son said a few years ago after a 7 game losing streak and I complained about their inept play...just release the whole team. Over-reaction much?

All I'm trying to say is we probably have ONE shot to sign a quality SS to a long term contract. The team can't afford to miss on this signing. And yes, I could see them passing on any player who wants 6 to 8 years at $30 million per.

[Tigermojo]

37 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Signing almost ANY FA SS will VASTLY improve the defense.

Bringing up Tork to play 1B and leaving Schoop at 2B and Cabrera 90% at DH will vastly improve the defense.

Hill getting a lot more CF play and Greene in CF or RF will vastly improve the defense.

Replacing Ramos & other catching weak links with Barnhart will vastly improve the defense.

What exactly are you looking at that you don't see much improvement from the defense?

Lots of question marks there.

Who plays short?

When does Tork get called up? Miggy happy with full time DH? A lot of players look at him as one of the best all-time. Clubhouse issues?

Hill stays healthy? Greene gets called up?

 

 

[casimir]

28 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Myers IMO would be a good addition. Grossman just had a career year, can he repeat? Baddoo could surge, also he could struggle. Greene and Tork will be in Detroit, but when? Miggy has huge injury and production risks at his age. It would not be a problem if they had 6 productive guys for 5 positions.

He is waaaay overpaid, so SD would need to add a significant sweetener, and they are probably very motivated to gain some payroll flexibility.

Bingo.  The Tigers aren't buying Myers, they are buying San Diego's desire to move Myers.  How much does San Diego want to move Myers?

Drew Pomeranz was also mentioned in that CBS article.  What kind of prospect package does San Diego want to attach to Myers & Pomeranz?  Can Pomeranz be productive out of the bullpen for two seasons?  What would need to go the other way?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Not what I'm saying. I'm asking if we should trust Al Avila to find and sign a huge long term contract to any player at any position. I'm just not a big fan of these huge guaranteed contracts.

I feel more comfortable with long term contracts because I feel we have the analytic crew to properly weigh in on it. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's 4/5ths of a starting rotation.

Leaving only 1 spot to fill.

I would go into the season with one more strong starter and another one that can compete with Alexander for a spot.  I'd say the same about Manning, but they are heavily invested in him so they probably need to assume he's good enough.  

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I would go into the season with one more strong starter and another one that can compete with Alexander for a spot. 

Exactly right. Though it's possible they may look at Wentz as part of that formulation. 

BTW- is Faedo pitching somewhere this winter? Shouldn't he be ready to be doing something somewhat competitive by now?

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's 4/5ths of a starting rotation.

Leaving only 1 spot to fill.

It's a little more complicated than that.

Mize and Skubal will likely cover 60 starts with a projected 330 innings between them.

Manning is projected to hit 28 starts and 150 innings, if he does that, then they will have roughly 90 starts covered by the top three guys and about 480 IP.

Alexander is projected to go from 15 starts/100 IP in 2021 to 23 starts/130 IP in 2022.

Now we're up to 113 starts and 610 IP.

That leaves about 50 starts.  42 of those were provided at an average/above average level by Boyd, Turnbull and overperformance from Peralta in 2021....anything less than what they did would be a step back for the SP.

If they get one really good SP like Ray, who covers 30 starts and pitches 200+ IP, and Manning and Alexander pitch as projected, and no other SPs blow out a tire, and maybe Boyd and/or Turnbull come back and give us 10+ decent starts, then their rotation might be decidedly better than in 2021.  That's an awful lot of if's.

But if, as some around here are suggesting, they only acquire one cheap decent-ish starter, like Alex Cobb or Martin Perez....you get 20 - 28 "ok" starts with 125 - 150 IP and a 4-4.50 ERA.....then you already might be a little worse off in those starts vs. Boyd/Turnbull/Peralta in 2021....and you are STILL left with 20-30 starts to fill.

If those remaining 20-30 starts are taken by various spot-starters and minor leaguers like Funk or whoever, that will likely be a major step back for the rotation vs. 2021, and will put additional work on a bullpen that wasn't that good in 2021, and according to Avila, isn't going to have any reinforcements in 2022.

They need to acquire TWO average or better SPs.

Edited November 6, 2021 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

Anything less than two average or better new SPs for 2022, in my opinion, makes it very unlikely that they will make the playoffs in 2022, and makes a winning record in 2022 a toss-up. 

For a winning record and a shot at the playoffs, with only one average-ish SP added, and only one good bat added (let's assume a SS like Story), we would need no new major injuries, strong improvements from Mize, Skubal, Manning, Alexander, AND the bullpen, as well as Tork and Greene as plus regulars, and maybe even Boyd and/or Turnbull coming back to provide 10+ good starts.

That is a tall order.  I'm thinking the above players net us 75-80 wins, or a winning record if we are reasonably lucky with development/injuries.  Making the playoffs with that crew in 2022 would involve serious luck.

Edited November 6, 2021 by sabretooth

[gehringer_2]

Boyd will be good for about 1/2 the season IF they sign him and Avila appears to be willing to play a little hardball there so that's open. Not sure there is reason to assume Manning pitches any less than Mize or Skubal in '22 but that's a small nit to pick. 

I still think it comes down to which position they are able to make the premium play at - SS or SP because I believe there will only be one signing in XS of $20M/yr.  If it's a SS, then the two pitchers signed will both be mid to back end. If they score a Robbie Ray+ level SP, we are looking at an additional 5th starter type and SS  that doesn't include any of the top FA names. It's the total dollars that are going to drive it. The MO seems to be that Chris Ilitch gives them a number  and they mix and match up to that number. The number is going to be bigger this year than it has been in a while, but I still tend to think it's going to be a hard number (now reduced by Barnhardts 7.5M)  that is less than would allow 2 $30M signings.

Edited November 6, 2021 by gehringer_2

[SoCalTiger]

I agree that 2 stud free agent pitchers and a shortstop will blow the budget. But we do need pitching especially for next year and Turnbull in 2023 is still iffy since it will be first year after TJ. Boyd is gone in 2023 for sure if not 22. So which do we prefer :

1.)  Paul Dejong trade if it allows us to add one of Stroman/Gausmen and one of Gray/Rodriguez  level. Or

2.) Trevor Story and Gray/Rodriguez and Wood/Heany