Mr.TaterSalad

On a human level, I feel bad for this guy and what he is being put through. It is clear he is not up to the task of being a US Senator given his mind numbingly stupid answers to questions on policy and procedure. As well, an equally or more troubling, his past erratic behavior including pulling a gun on his ex-wife and sticking it against her temple threatening to blow her brains out, threating to kill himself, and admitting to having some kind of brain health issue/s with a multiple personality disorder. From one human being to another, I have empathy and hope he gets or continues getting the proper mental healthcare he needs. Herschel Walker is a prime example of why we need a universal, Medicare For All healthcare system, so that no person, regardless of their condition or lot in life, falls through the cracks. But from a political stand point, I don't feel bad and recognize that this man should be nowhere near public office. I wouldn't elect him to a Library Board or Dog Catcher post. He has zero qualification for public office and comes across like a rambling idiot. HIs IQ and ability to comprehend issues by thinking critically about something and making sound judgements as a result is clearly lacking. He simply does not have the intellectual heft required for the job. He must be stopped and defeated. Whether you agree with Warnock or not on any issue, he has far beyond the baseline qualifications to do the job.

I think this is encouraging on the surface for sure. I would however like to see the raw numbers and compare it to other election cycles like 2016, 2018, and 2020. Because if the raw party registration numbers are way, way down, than that throws a little cold water on this.

Mastriano is being supported by Andrew Torba, CEO of far right social media platform GAB, who says Jews have no place in the conservative movement.

From Nolan Bianchi and Justin Rogers of Det News (taken from the article above) . . . Okudah had the roughest day amongst a cornerback group that got beat early and often. He made just one pass breakup and was burned for a handful of touchdowns and big gains. And it wasn’t just that he was getting beat — that happened to Amani Oruwariye plenty, as well, which we’ll get to in a second — but rather there was a concerning trend of Colts receivers easily getting separation and turning medium gains into long gains.

https://detroitsportsnation.com/detroit-lions-cb-jeff-okudah-torched-repeatedly-by-colts-receivers/wgbrady/nfl/detroit-lions-news/08/17/2022/287225/ A report from practice, not sure how accurate it is, saying Okudah is getting torched by the Colts Receivers.

On day's such as today, with Weisselberg supposedly flipping, I am reminded of many scenes from the Sopranos, but in particular this one. Weisselberg is wired up for sound against his own best friend Donal Trump now, just as Big Pussy was against Tony. Somewhere at Mar-A-Lago, Trump's having himself a stiff, non-alcoholic drink, wondering in dismay, what's next.

That's good new for Democrats that significant financial resources are having to be dumped in to protect a seat that was thought to be a safe bet for Republicans.

Awesome! Love Whitey Morgan and the 78's as well.

This to me is more encouraging than the actual overall poll numbers themselves . . .

But there is clearly a Johnson/Baldwin voter given the margins of what Baldwin won by. I do think Mandela Barnes is running a fairly good campaign from the looks of it. He's not trying to be a lite beer version of the Republicans nor trying to show you how conservative he too can be. He's solidly and unapologetically progressive on economics and healthcare and brands himself in a way that doesn't scare voters off with big government lingo (i.e. people like Bernie calling themselves a socialist). Wisconsin voters seem to accept a more progressive-minded candidates who takes, bold, left-of-center stances and votes on economic and healthcare issues, given the success Tammy Baldwin has had campaigning as a progressive in the past. I do think Barnes can win as well and am not saying it is a lock that Johnson wins. I am just skeptical at some of the polling margins we are seeing here and elsewhere for 2022 and am unsure how the divergence between issue trust and candidate plays out.

Why the divergence then from what voters care about and the candidates they are supporting? Voters say in poll after poll say inflation and gas prices are issues #1 and #2 that they care about. They also say they trust Republicans more on those two issues. So are those polls wrong? Are voters going to significantly diverge from the party they say they trust more to handle the issues that matter to them most?

I think we have some data that shows for whatever reason, at least to a small extent, Republicans and Trump voters are being under sampled in mainstream polling as 538 points out. My concerns is that polling in a general sense isn't capturing Republican enthusiasm, as it semi-failed to do in both 2016 and 2020. I worry they are underrepresented nationally by pollsters. I also worry that the polling on candidates doesn't correlate to issue-based polling that shows what voters care about. And when you dive into that, Democrats are losing on the issues by a decent margin, specifically the economy. I worry there is a big divergence between candidate and issue polling. I worry that issue-based polling is what will more accurately reflect the final results in 2022 and thus will be a bigger Republican victory, in both Congress and the Senate, than people believe.

Marquette University, the same poll that has Barnes up over Johnson here, also had Feingold up +11 at this point in time in 2016. They had Fiengold up +6 in early October and up +1 just days before the election on October 31st. They were way off in their early 2016 estimates with Feingold up +11 and off with their final tally as Ron Johnson ended up winning by 3.4%. Pardon me for being skeptical about polling that has consistently gotten it wrong.

I know I don't know that I believe any of the polling and think things will be way tighter than some of these polls are showing. When you look at the issue based polling around what people care about, inflation and gas prices are #1 and #2 on voters minds with abortion usually a distant third. When you look at who voters trust more on gas prices and inflation it's Republicans by a fairly wide margin. Democrats are going to win a few of the senate races, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and maybe Ohio, because of bad candidates on the GOP side. Say what you will about Ron Johnson, but I don't think is qualifies as a bad candidate in comparison to the likes of Masters or Oz.

I'm on Team Veggie Tray.

She's also anti-vax and promotes dangerous medical treatments. Its ironic given the situation we're in that the Democratic Party is so firmly in the camp of believing the science, yet after she gave a speech at an awards show, you had moderates on social media fawning over this women to run in 2020.

Cody Jinks is what country music sounded like before corporate record labels and media stole its soul away . . .

A lot of my Democratic and progressive friends frown upon the Lincoln Project, but I have to say, both in 2020 and today, they have the best overall messaging and ads. I think this ad below does a great job showing the contrast of Biden and the MAGA crowd, anger or results, making your life better or constantly airing your grievances about people. This is the type of sharp contrast that Democrats need to be drawing upon in their ads and messaging for individual candidates. You can effectively capture people's frustrations with the way things are while still showing them that you are getting stuff done to make their lives better. It doesn't have to be either extreme anger or status quo.

Oz is like the comic book or cartoon villain version of a Senate candidate. Oz is so comically out of touch, he reminds of when Mr. Burns ran for Governor and Marge served him up his own three-eyed fish to eat. If Oz beats Fetterman, Mr. White Working Class, then I have no hope anymore for Democrats ever regaining any significant ground with working class white voters.

Rolling Stone is saying their pulling money and ad buys from both Johnson in Wisconsin (hey that rhymes) and Masters in Arizona.

How does it feel knowing your dad had Kennedy killed?

It's too bad there wasn't a good guy with a gun there to stop him at a kid's football game.