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SCOTUS and whatnot


pfife

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18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

and Roberts remains a total putz - he will go down as the chief of the most debased court in US history, either because he is too much of a closet right wing radical himself, or just too gutless to do his job. The idea that the chief has no real power is nonsense. How long would a justice stay on the court once a chief suspends his decision writing privileges?

This is what has been really concerning to me. Is Roberts purposely ineffective , or is it just being so incredibly spineless ?

Either way, it’s a disastrous picture.  The Supreme Court is neither supreme, nor a court.

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1 minute ago, RatkoVarda said:

"The decision was 6-3"

If Trump wins, that's hard coded for the rest of my life.

7-2 or just Trump decided it was thus and had the SCOTUS sent out to pasture. 

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Something occurred to me a couple days ago regarding the concept of independents. We tend to think of them as the reasonable middle who could be talked into voting either Democrat or Republican depending on policy shifts between the two. But really, independents are simply those voters who don’t gravitate toward either major party. So yes, that includes the reasonable middle, but it also includes wackaloons who would vote for Stein, or RFK, or write in Bernie  or vote for any number of wacky third party candidates, and there are probably more of those than the number of reasonable people who go back and forth. Food for thought.

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I think a lot of “independents” today are republicans but they say independent because they don’t want to be called racist. 
 

Things have changed so much since Trump that it’s hard to use historical practices. I feel like normal people gravitated towards the Dems.  The trump voters are made up of idiots or those smart enough (Like Cruz and Rubio) to know that’s their only option so they play along knowing it’s bull****. 

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I don't know how much it's changed but traditionally the polling said there few true independents - if by that is meant people who have voted for candidates in both parties in any recent history. There were a lot of people who were pretty reliable for one party or the other but just wanted not to be considered affiliated. I would guess for a lot of people it's a way to they have kept their options open even if that's only in their own mind and there isn't much probability they will ever cross the line to the other side. I would also guess that polarization has increased even with those folks. They still don't want to be 'tied down' to a party ID but are even more solidly in one cultural camp or the other.

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46 minutes ago, oblong said:

and do elections swing because of vote switching from consistent voters or from a particular group voting or not voting at all?

 

I think it's clear in the last few cycles it's much more about turnout than changing people's minds.  In 2020 Trump got 12M more votes than in 2016 and lost because the Dems turned out 16M more. That the swing of 28M more voters staying home or not dwarfs how many change their minds. Which is why for my money - all the campaign advice to Biden about trying to swing the average Fox voter is advice to waste energy. Everything you do has to be aimed at energizing your own voters. That's the one thing Trumps has learned perfectly, which is why he doesn't care a whit about how outrageous he seems to the Dems, he doesn't care what they think - his only objective to rile up his own voters with enough fear and anger to make sure they don't stay home.

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32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think it's clear in the last few cycles it's much more about turnout than changing people's minds.  In 2020 Trump got 12M more votes than in 2016 and lost because the Dems turned out 16M more. That the swing of 28M more voters staying home or not dwarfs how many change their minds. Which is why for my money - all the campaign advice to Biden about trying to swing the average Fox voter is advice to waste energy. Everything you do has to be aimed at energizing your own voters. That's the one thing Trumps has learned perfectly, which is why he doesn't care a whit about how outrageous he seems to the Dems, he doesn't care what they think - his only objective to rile up his own voters with enough fear and anger to make sure they don't stay home.

that sounds right.  

I know this isn't the election thread but I still worry about MI for Biden.  The Arab American vote is lost for him.  Biden can still win and probably will but I'd be surprised if it's a higher margin.  We'll see.

 

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

That's the one thing Trumps has learned perfectly, which is why he doesn't care a whit about how outrageous he seems to the Dems, he doesn't care what they think - his only objective to rile up his own voters with enough fear and anger to make sure they don't stay home.

I disagree with the premise that he's learned that perfectly.  Trump had a keen eye for identifying things that everyone was upset with and reshaping the party around him to accept it.  But then he got into power, wanted to keep it, and I don't think he has that keen eye anymore.  Abortion is about the only thing you could argue he understands can hurt him, yet while he tries to play the states rights line, he allows to much talk about contraceptives and federal bans from those close to him.  IMO, because he is more focused on revenge that actually winning.

Add in the fact what he's done to the GOP.  Helped start (and finish) civil wars within the state GOP for Michigan and Arizona, two swing states that need a healthy state level GOP to help drive voters to the polls.  (Guess you could argue Michigan's sane party took it back, but it's a flaming pile of dog crap still.  Loyalty is more important than turning out the base for him.  In fact for the previous base that wasn't 'loyal' to him, he couldn't care less about them.

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3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

they are, yet again, telling us all what they will do; and, yet again, people will ignore these confessions; and, yet again, be shocked - SHOCKED I SAY! - when they do what they said they would do

 

I hope he tears a rotator cuff while pulling up the ladder.

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I don't know which is worse, Alito's judcial incompetence and intemperance or Roberts' enabling of it. The joke is apparently that it's not only ETTD, but everything the GOP takes control of is set on the road to ruin. Gingrich started the House on the way to ruin, Bush began the destruction of executive branch professionalism with hack appointments and Trump of course took that another notch or ten, and now Roberts presides over the collapse of credibility of the Judicial branch. It's not even funny any more - the GOP has been pouring pure arsenic in the national salt shaker for last generation and the government is already half poisoned.

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20 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't know which is worse, Alito's judcial incompetence and intemperance or Roberts' enabling of it. The joke is apparently that it's not only ETTD, but everything the GOP takes control of is set on the road to ruin. Gingrich started the House on the way to ruin, Bush began the destruction of executive branch professionalism with hack appointments and Trump of course took that another notch or ten, and now Roberts presides over the collapse of credibility of the Judicial branch. It's not even funny any more - the GOP has been pouring pure arsenic in the national salt shaker for last generation and the government is already half poisoned.

But they’re going to come out of it all rich as Croesus. that’s the idea, anyway.

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