2023 NFL Draft As-It-Happens

[RandyMarsh]

You hear about the value thing alot in Fantasy Football as well and rarely in my experience to the people that get the best "value" end up with the best team.

For instance people say it's bad value to draft a qb before the third round, well the guy that decides to wait will end up with a mid tier guy but claim he got good value. Meanwhile the dude that took Mahomes in the 2nd will end up scoring 75 more points than the guy that got the good "value" at qb.

[Motown Bombers]

I'm concerned with getting good players than value. I think for the most part they got good players and players who will contribute right away. I think value matters in trades. For the most part, I didn't think Holmes got good value for his trades but at the end of the day he walked away with 6 picks in the top 100. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Let me preface this by saying that beyond my instant reaction on draft night about them building a team like it's 1980, I like most all of what Holmes did. I wanted both Gibbs and Campbell. I just wanted them a round later. But it's clear that other teams, including the Lions, had them slotted to go a lot higher than the average internet mock draft or fan had them going. So all and all, I'd give Holmes a solid B for this draft. I'm not wow'ed by it but I understand what happened and why it happened. 

However, I think there is a debate to be had about positional value. Specifically, about a good player with a potential shelf life of 4-5 years in their prime and a good player with a potential shelf life of 7-8 years in their prime. I think what I'm most interested in looking at is where does Jahmyr Gibbs compare in 3-4 seasons with Tyree Wilson and Jalen Carter. It's pretty much useless to have that debate before the y play a down of football, but certainly something worth revisiting and looking at on down the line.

[RandyMarsh]

I don't think its fair to compare anybody to Carter since by all accounts he wasn't drafted because of off the field issues.

I mean it's like alot of people are suddenly ignoring that and just treating him like there was no problem at all. Before the draft the media folks were talking about the risks involved with drafting him now they give the Eagles a victory lap for not only drafting him but trading up for him. 

[Motown Bombers]

Kamara is still going strong after 6 seasons. If anything is going to do him in this year, it's likely going to be off the field issues. Kamara has had the most touches of his career the past two seasons of his career. His number of touches has steadily gone up every year he's played. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RedRamage]

On 4/29/2023 at 2:21 PM, MichiganCardinal said:

Noah Sewell goes to the Bears. Damaging blow to his career.

Funny thing is that most of the league would've said that same thing if the Lions had drafted him just 1.5 years ago.

[RandyMarsh]

Funny that the Bears and Lions have 2 sets of siblings with the Sewells and St. Browns.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, RandyMarsh said:

Funny that the Bears and Lions have 2 sets of siblings with the Sewells and St. Browns.

And the Lions have the better or favorite siblings. 

[RedRamage]

On 4/29/2023 at 7:36 PM, MichiganCardinal said:

Never heard of this Charlie Campbell guy but he seems to like the Lions.

He's probably related to Dan, so it's just homerism.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

He's probably related to Dan, so it's just homerism.

I can see the resemblance. They both look like they listen to Metallica. 

[RedRamage]

23 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

So all of these "experts" that had their mock drafts totally wrong all now grade every team on their picks? And we're supposed to look at them for their "expert" opinions? Wrong about picks and wrong about their grades. Let's find a group of folks who grade teams picks from 3 to 5 years ago. That would be much more accurate.

In a perfect world, sure... no one talks about how good a draft is or isn't until 3-5 years down the line. The reality is everyone is gonna have "hot takes" ... and fans are largely expecting hot takes so if you don't have one posted they're gonna wonder why.

And the "experts" will grade based on their "expert" opinion. If they thought Gibbs, for example, was 2nd round talent they'll grade the Lions poorly for drafting him in mid-1st. That's not shocking, that's what they thought. They shouldn't suddenly change their opinion on a guy just because he was drafted somewhere they didn't expect it to happen. Again, that's not shocking. It doesn't make it right, just what their opinion is.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[MichiganCardinal]

Beyond the grades… which are dumb even if I do them myself and pay attention to them despite my best efforts… What I give Holmes a lot of credit for is his improvisation and ability to work the board on the fly.

In 2021 and 22, the choice was pretty obvious, the board fell largely as expected, and the Lions were able to orchestrate moves that they had planned out well in advance. This year, their favorite guy went early, and after that, no one expected the Seahawks to take Witherspoon. The Lions wanted him, and when he went, they very easily could have been caught with their pants down and taken Gonzalez or otherwise panicked to take someone they weren’t 100% on. Instead, he adapted and traded with the Cardinals (a team he didn’t even know could be looking to trade up when the night began). Beyond the first round, Holmes knew who he wanted, recognized when value was dropping, and played the board like a mastermind to get his guys. That’s not to say his guys will work, obviously I hope they do (even if I question the DT pick), but it’s just to say I think he got guys he wanted to get, and was in control the entire time.

The Eagles are getting universal praise for their haul, which is deserved, but it’s not like Howie Roseman had to work that hard for what he got. They came in knowing that if Carter started falling they would move to get him. Nolan Smith fell into their laps. Sometimes dumb teams picking early make things easy for good teams picking late, and I think that’s what we saw the Eagles benefit from.

OTOH, it seemed like the Jets and Giants were two teams that may have been caught with their pants down. I think the Jets wanted one of the three offensive linemen that went right before them, and when they were gone they panicked and took Will McDonald, rather than making something happen earlier and moving up, or making something happen and taking someone they love later on. Same for the Giants when they saw four straight WRs fly off the board.

[Longgone]

9 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Beyond the grades… which are dumb even if I do them myself and pay attention to them despite my best efforts… What I give Holmes a lot of credit for is his improvisation and ability to work the board on the fly.

In 2021 and 22, the choice was pretty obvious, the board fell largely as expected, and the Lions were able to orchestrate moves that they had planned out well in advance. This year, their favorite guy went early, and after that, no one expected the Seahawks to take Witherspoon. The Lions wanted him, and when he went, they very easily could have been caught with their pants down and taken Gonzalez or otherwise panicked to take someone they weren’t 100% on. Instead, he adapted and traded with the Cardinals (a team he didn’t even know could be looking to trade up when the night began). Beyond the first round, Holmes knew who he wanted, recognized when value was dropping, and played the board like a mastermind to get his guys. That’s not to say his guys will work, obviously I hope they do (even if I question the DT pick), but it’s just to say I think he got guys he wanted to get, and was in control the entire time.

Why does everyone assume the lions wanted Witherspoon? Because he was mocked to them? There is no evidence they would have taken him at 6.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Longgone said:

Why does everyone assume the lions wanted Witherspoon? Because he was mocked to them? There is no evidence they would have taken him at 6.

I think it's because Witherspoon comes off as a Dan Campbell kind of player. After seeing their reaction to drafting Gibbs, I have to wonder if they didn't have Gibbs as the best player all along. 

[RedRamage]

10 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Why does everyone assume the lions wanted Witherspoon? Because he was mocked to them? There is no evidence they would have taken him at 6.

There was chatter from some beat writer(s) who heard that if Witherspoon was there the Lions were going to stay at 6 and draft him, but because he wasn't they traded out. Obviously this depends on believing the source(s) that the writer(s) referenced.

[Longgone]

15 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

There was chatter from some beat writer(s) who heard that if Witherspoon was there the Lions were going to stay at 6 and draft him, but because he wasn't they traded out. Obviously this depends on believing the source(s) that the writer(s) referenced.

Someone claimed that from a source, or were they simply speculating?

[Motown Bombers]

He's got the Lions picking 29th. That means they made it to the NFC Championship game.

 

[RedRamage]

On 4/27/2023 at 9:01 PM, Motown Bombers said:

 

@Longgone Not sure if there were more, but this is the one I remember, and I remember a bit wrong. Apparently it was a national writer speculating that a beat writer quoted.

[RandyMarsh]

Unless Witherspoon was graded so much higher to them than the other CBs I think its telling that they didn't take one the whole draft unless you count Branch who I feel is more of a safety. 

[MichiganCardinal]

45 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Why does everyone assume the lions wanted Witherspoon? Because he was mocked to them? There is no evidence they would have taken him at 6.

Yeah as others have said both Birkett and Charlie Campbell reported that the Lions were going to stick and pick if Witherspoon was there.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Unless Witherspoon was graded so much higher to them than the other CBs I think its telling that they didn't take one the whole draft unless you count Branch who I feel is more of a safety. 

It could be why they were so aggressive in free agency with the secondary because they didn't have many highly graded defensive backs in this draft. 

[Longgone]

2 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Yeah as others have said both Birkett and Charlie Campbell reported that the Lions were going to stick and pick if Witherspoon was there.

They did not report that, they speculated.

[MichiganCardinal]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Unless Witherspoon was graded so much higher to them than the other CBs I think its telling that they didn't take one the whole draft unless you count Branch who I feel is more of a safety. 

It'll be interesting to see how they align the defensive backfield this year. You have two guys coming back from injury in Moseley and Walker, and you have Branch and CJGJ who can kind of go anywhere back there (at least slot and safety). There is still a lack of depth at the position too.