2023 NFL Draft As-It-Happens

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's weird how RB and LB are considered low value positions when RBs touch the ball more than any player on offense other than the QB and LBs tackle more people than any other player on defense. 

LBs are RBs are running game players so I guess it depends on how much the running game figures in the league in a given era. It's at a pretty low point now but the pendulum may swing back  - good coaches are alwasy looking to change things up. I'm almost little surprised hybrid runner/receivers like Gibbs aren't more the norm in today's game.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

LBs are RBs are running game players so I guess it depends on how much the running game figures in the league in a given era. It's at a pretty low point now but the pendulum may swing back  - good coaches are alwasy looking to change things up. I'm almost little surprised hybrid runner/receivers like Gibbs aren't more the norm in today's game.

The team with the fewest rush attempts had 386 for the year. That's still over 22 per game. The league is passing the ball more but teams still run and QBs run more now than ever. A LB with sideline to sideline speed is valuable against these mobile QBs that gashed the Lions. Gibbs is often compared to Kamara who gets anywhere from 250-280 total touches per year. That's about 15+ touches a game. WRs aren't touching the ball that many times a season. Only a QB is. 

[RatkoVarda]

hard to see how Martin was worth such a high pick or the draft capital it cost to move up; he only needs to be able to play 30(?) snaps a games as a reserve 2-down NT to be a successful, but we shall see if he can even do that

he is older and huge, and if he really is an NFL player, would have expected him to dominate small school competition, which he clearly did not do. if they can coach him up, great, because cannot teach that size.

[Motown Bombers]

Had the Lions as day two winners. He also likes the Lions day one draft. 

 

[Hongbit]

30 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

hard to see how Martin was worth such a high pick or the draft capital it cost to move up; he only needs to be able to play 30(?) snaps a games as a reserve 2-down NT to be a successful, but we shall see if he can even do that

he is older and huge, and if he really is an NFL player, would have expected him to dominate small school competition, which he clearly did not do. if they can coach him up, great, because cannot teach that size.

My take is the talent on this roster has evolved to the point that most of those 5th -7th round guys weren’t going to make the team.   If they had 4 or 5 picks there, maybe only 1 of them would make the final roster.   After already picking 5 guys in the first 3 rounds, I had no issue packaging 3 picks to move up to get a guy they really like that will definitely make the roster.   I think it was actually another brilliant chess move from Holmes to make that seemingly unbalanced trade.  

Edited May 3, 2023 by Hongbit

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's weird how RB and LB are considered low value positions when RBs touch the ball more than any player on offense other than the QB and LBs tackle more people than any other player on defense. 

Regarding RB, I think it’s mainly a combo of shelf life along with the desire for a committee of situational specialists for things like 3rd down or short yardage.   

LB probably has more to do with the increase in nickel and dime sets to combat the increased athleticism of the modern TE and pass catching RB.  It has brought more emphasis of keeping a box safety or nickel on the field for pass coverage and limited that 3 down LB in many cases.  

[MichiganCardinal]

14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Had the Lions as day two winners. He also likes the Lions day one draft. 

 

I do like Charlie Campbell (I know, everyone is surprised), but I take his praise with a grain of salt. I like what the Lions did, but some of Campbell’s praise seems like confirmation bias. He wasn’t going to have his mock say to pick Gibbs, Campbell, and LaPorta, watch them pick those three, and then say it was bad.

At the very least with the contacts he clearly has within the org, I’m sure it wouldn’t be good business to criticize the draft choices that they partially leaked.

I still like most of what they did, and Campbell’s mocks will be a source of much attention next year. But the praise I take in context.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I do like Charlie Campbell (I know, everyone is surprised), but I take his praise with a grain of salt. I like what the Lions did, but some of Campbell’s praise seems like confirmation bias. He wasn’t going to have his mock say to pick Gibbs, Campbell, and LaPorta, watch them pick those three, and then say it was bad.

At the very least with the contacts he clearly has within the org, I’m sure it wouldn’t be good business to criticize the draft choices that they partially leaked.

I still like most of what they did, and Campbell’s mocks will be a source of much attention next year. But the praise I take in context.

You would think the Lions would want to button up the leaker. Teams can just read Charlie Campbell's to know who the Lions are going take. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Regarding RB, I think it’s mainly a combo of shelf life along with the desire for a committee of situational specialists for things like 3rd down or short yardage.   

LB probably has more to do with the increase in nickel and dime sets to combat the increased athleticism of the modern TE and pass catching RB.  It has brought more emphasis of keeping a box safety or nickel on the field for pass coverage and limited that 3 down LB in many cases.  

If they get 5 really good years out of Gibbs, that would be worth it. RBs, unlike other positions, can start and make an impact from day one. It it really better if you get 8 years from another position but it took a year or two to develop them?

[MichiganCardinal]

20 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

You would think the Lions would want to button up the leaker. Teams can just read Charlie Campbell's to know who the Lions are going take. 

The whole thing is really odd. Campbell consistently does better on his mocks than anyone at ESPN, CBS, SI, or NFL Network, yet he works for a dude whose website looks like it was built by a high schooler in the late 90s.

[djhutch]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

LBs are RBs are running game players so I guess it depends on how much the running game figures in the league in a given era. It's at a pretty low point now but the pendulum may swing back  - good coaches are alwasy looking to change things up. I'm almost little surprised hybrid runner/receivers like Gibbs aren't more the norm in today's game.

I heard an analysis yesterday from Dan Orlovsky I think, about the fact that the AFC is a much more pass-happy conference & the NFC tends toward the running game more - which is why the Gibbs/Campbell picks make better sense for the Lions.  That may be overly simplistic - I'm not even sure whether it's accurate, but it would explain things a bit.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, djhutch said:

I heard an analysis yesterday from Dan Orlovsky I think, about the fact that the AFC is a much more pass-happy conference & the NFC tends toward the running game more - which is why the Gibbs/Campbell picks make better sense for the Lions.  That may be overly simplistic - I'm not even sure whether it's accurate, but it would explain things a bit.

The Eagles had the 3rd most rush attempts in the NFL and the Bears were 2nd (Falcons were 1st). Dallas was 6th, Giants 8th, and 49ers 9th. The NFC does run it more than the AFC. Some of that is QBs like with Philadelphia and Chicago but a good LB with speed should help with that. 

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

If they get 5 really good years out of Gibbs, that would be worth it. RBs, unlike other positions, can start and make an impact from day one. It it really better if you get 8 years from another position but it took a year or two to develop them?

Absolutely worth it.  I think the ideal plan should be to get 4 years and maybe even the option out of Gibbs and then move on from him and draft his replacement in the 1st or 2nd round.  

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I like the Gibbs and Campbell picks. In fact,  I wanted both players to be drafted by the Lions prior to last week's draft. I had both of them mocked to the Lions in several of the simulations I did. I think Gibbs gives us the ability to continue to have a dynamic, high scoring, top 5-7 offense in the league. And in a league where offense wins championships, that's a very good thing.

The argument I have in my head is not will they end up being good players, I think they both very much will. Nor is it so much a positional value argument. In the case of Gibbs, if you can get close to Alvin Kamara production for more than one contract's worth of play, if he can make it to a second contract playing at a high level, I think it will have been more than worth it. Gibbs could be a special type of offensive weapon for this organization that elevates our production even further or at least prevents us from having any drop off in production from last season.

The argument and comparisons I am making in my head are will Gibbs be equally or more valuable to this team, for what we need, than either Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter? Will Campbell be equally or more valuable for this team than Joey Porter Jr. Calijah Kancey, or Nolan Smith? If the answer is yes, they will be equally or more valuable than I am all good with having both on my team. If Jalen Carter turns into Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy out there and Gibbs doesn't come close to being a Kamara type of offensive playmaker, it's going to make a lot of Lions have buyers remorse and there will be lots of "I told you so's" from fans. I won't be one of those, because I didn't want Carter and never expected him to be on our draft board. We'll just have to trust Brad Holmes in the end and let all of their respective careers playout. Nothing that we can do except watch the games and hope our Lions and these players end up as good as we are hyping them up to be next season.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RandyMarsh]

The RB argument from the way I understand it is not necessarily just the short shelf life but teams feel that they are more easily replaceable than other positions. Like if your starting RB goes down to teams it isn't as damaging as most other positions, they feel they can just plug in the next guy and block and create holes for him to run behind.

As an avid fantasy football player who has had to pickup a backup because my early round starter got injured I can attest that there may be some truth to that cause often times you don't lose out much from those backups but like everything else there are exceptions.

Certain RBs just make the entire offense so much better when they are in there, I think of Saquon Barkley among today's backs. Daboll got all this credit for being an offensive genius this year but I think having a healthy Saquon was just as critical to their offensive success as anything. 

[Motown Bombers]

In 4 of Kamara's 6 seasons he caught 80 or passes. That would be second on the Lions. Gibbs is the type of back who can line up at receiver. I almost look at Gibbs as a position less player. He someone you can put anywhere on the field and I would like to see formations where Montgomery and Gibbs are on the field at the same time. 

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

In 4 of Kamara's 6 seasons he caught 80 or passes. That would be second on the Lions. Gibbs is the type of back who can line up at receiver. I almost look at Gibbs as a position less player. He someone you can put anywhere on the field and I would like to see formations where Montgomery and Gibbs are on the field at the same time. 

I’m looking forward to Jamo and Gibbs at the same time. I think if we get the as-advertised Jamo we are looking at two threats who can do similar things and you can’t cover them both.

[Motown Bombers]

14 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I’m looking forward to Jamo and Gibbs at the same time. I think if we get the as-advertised Jamo we are looking at two threats who can do similar things and you can’t cover them both.

I'm looking forward to LaPorta as well. After seeing his tape and his speed and run after the catch ability, the Lions have multiple options who just need to get them the ball. Gibbs and LaPorta and Williams can take catches short and turn them into big plays. I like Williams ability to take the top off the defense and open up routes underneath. Now you have to contend with St Brown, LaPorta and Gibbs over the middle while Williams is taking a safety deep down the field. One of the things I noticed when Goff came over from the Rams was that his heat map showed he was better than Stafford at short and intermediate passes over the middle. I really thought Hockenson was going to break out but it never materialized. Now he has multiple options in that short and intermediate range over the middle who can also run after catch. 

[Jason_R]

The 2023 Lions could become the new greatest show on turf. 

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm looking forward to LaPorta as well. After seeing his tape and his speed and run after the catch ability, the Lions have multiple options who just need to get them the ball. Gibbs and LaPorta and Williams can take catches short and turn them into big plays. I like Williams ability to take the top off the defense and open up routes underneath. Now you have to contend with St Brown, LaPorta and Gibbs over the middle while Williams is taking a safety deep down the field. One of the things I noticed when Goff came over from the Rams was that his heat map showed he was better than Stafford at short and intermediate passes over the middle. I really thought Hockenson was going to break out but it never materialized. Now he has multiple options in that short and intermediate range over the middle who can also run after catch. 

It may be greedy, but I'd still like to see Williams at the y, and a big, long, fast x receiver acquired, someone exactly like Chark or Courtland Sutton.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RandyMarsh]

9 hours ago, Longgone said:

It may be greedy, but I'd still like to see Williams at the y, and a big, long, fast x receiver acquired, someone exactly like Chark or Courtland Sutton.

Yeah same here. Sutton would be a great fit if the price is right.

[Longgone]

20 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

hard to see how Martin was worth such a high pick or the draft capital it cost to move up; he only needs to be able to play 30(?) snaps a games as a reserve 2-down NT to be a successful, but we shall see if he can even do that

he is older and huge, and if he really is an NFL player, would have expected him to dominate small school competition, which he clearly did not do. if they can coach him up, great, because cannot teach that size.

He looks like someone you might take a 7th round flyer on, but Holmes likes him, really, really, likes him. Targeted him. Sees him at least as one of the top 70 players in the draft. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Same with Sorsdal.

[RandyMarsh]

Of course we're right by the Seahawks after the debate yesterday!