2023 NFL Draft As-It-Happens

[MichiganCardinal]

3 minutes ago, Longgone said:

They did not report that, they speculated.

From WalterFootball.com Day Two Preview....
 

Quote

3. As mentioned, the one draft prop we got wrong was Jalen Carter. I can tell you that the Seahawks loved him at one point, but something must have happened in the past few days to move them off Carter. Perhaps they found out that no one came to his birthday party.

Had the Seahawks chosen Carter, the rest of the top 12 would have been radically different:

 Detroit Lions: The Lions would not have traded out of No. 6. They were set on Devon Witherspoon.

 Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Campbell was the Raiders' man at No. 7. They had to pivot to Tyree Wilson.

 Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson was going to be the eighth-overall pick unless Witherspoon fell to them, which was not going to happen.

 Chicago Bears: The Bears don't pick up their extra fourth-round pick. They stay put and take Darnell Wright.

 Philadelphia Eagles: With Carter unavailable, I wonder if the Eagles still consider Nolan Smith at No. 10. The other options would be Peter Skoronski and Tyree Wilson. My money would be on Wilson, but I don't know what the Eagles would have done.

 Tennessee Titans: This still would have been Skoronski.

 Arizona Cardinals: Poor Cardinals. Paris Johnson would be gone in this scenario, so what would Arizona have done? Believe it or not, I have good reason to believe that the Cardinals would have chosen Nolan Smith.

It's possible Birkett's comments could be speculation, but this is pretty confident, at least with respect to the Lions and Witherspoon.

[Jason_R]

3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Unless Witherspoon was graded so much higher to them than the other CBs I think its telling that they didn't take one the whole draft unless you count Branch who I feel is more of a safety. 

This is a good point. It’s become clear that Holmes does not think about positions, he thinks about players. 

This is why he’s not looking for the best rounded player at each position. He could have gotten Bijan, who was clearly the best rounded RB in the draft and who he could have picked at six. Instead he is looking for players who have certain traits that are off the charts for their position. Gibbs’s speed, Campbell’s athleticism, Laporta’s elusiveness, Branch’s versatility, even Martin’s size. 

[MichiganCardinal]

The norm is that corners take a little longer to develop as well. Obviously there are notable exceptions like Sauce Gardner, but generally there is a steeper learning curve to adjust to NFL wide receivers. Holmes has made it clear that the expectations are very high for this season. I can see them not wanting to have to deal with a secondary that is learning on the fly.

[Motown Bombers]

Sutton would be a good fit. Not sure about a 2nd rounder but I would be intrigued. 

 

[Longgone]

20 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

From WalterFootball.com Day Two Preview....
 

It's possible Birkett's comments could be speculation, but this is pretty confident, at least with respect to the Lions and Witherspoon.

It's typical Charlie Campbell. 

[Shinzaki]

That's why Carter was nine pounds heavier...he ate all his birthday cake because no one showed up to his party

[MichiganCardinal]

18 minutes ago, Longgone said:

It's typical Charlie Campbell. 

I know I go to that well a little much, but in the last two weeks leading up to the draft, he accurately mocked Gibbs, Campbell, and LaPorta to the Lions. He’s definitely got a contact in the org.

[Jason_R]

13 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

That's why Carter was nine pounds heavier...he ate all his birthday cake because no one showed up to his party

Priceless. 😂

Think Howie Roseman will make the DL coach send Carter a belated birthday card?

But seriously, that may be the interesting thing that Dan Campbell mentioned. 

[NYLion]

3 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Beyond the grades… which are dumb even if I do them myself and pay attention to them despite my best efforts… What I give Holmes a lot of credit for is his improvisation and ability to work the board on the fly.

In 2021 and 22, the choice was pretty obvious, the board fell largely as expected, and the Lions were able to orchestrate moves that they had planned out well in advance. This year, their favorite guy went early, and after that, no one expected the Seahawks to take Witherspoon. The Lions wanted him, and when he went, they very easily could have been caught with their pants down and taken Gonzalez or otherwise panicked to take someone they weren’t 100% on. Instead, he adapted and traded with the Cardinals (a team he didn’t even know could be looking to trade up when the night began). Beyond the first round, Holmes knew who he wanted, recognized when value was dropping, and played the board like a mastermind to get his guys. That’s not to say his guys will work, obviously I hope they do (even if I question the DT pick), but it’s just to say I think he got guys he wanted to get, and was in control the entire time.

The Eagles are getting universal praise for their haul, which is deserved, but it’s not like Howie Roseman had to work that hard for what he got. They came in knowing that if Carter started falling they would move to get him. Nolan Smith fell into their laps. Sometimes dumb teams picking early make things easy for good teams picking late, and I think that’s what we saw the Eagles benefit from.

OTOH, it seemed like the Jets and Giants were two teams that may have been caught with their pants down. I think the Jets wanted one of the three offensive linemen that went right before them, and when they were gone they panicked and took Will McDonald, rather than making something happen earlier and moving up, or making something happen and taking someone they love later on. Same for the Giants when they saw four straight WRs fly off the board.

Holmes could have easily stood pat and took "his guy" Gibbs at 6 (which I'm sure Quinn would have done) but, instead, worked the phones knowing that he could still get his guy at 12 (unless somebody else traded up for Gibbs) and collected an asset in addition so instead of just Gibbs+whoever at 81, he landed Gibbs+LaPorta.  Argue positional value all you want but instead of settling for his guy, he went to work and still got his guy while adding another guy.

He used one of those assets to trade up for Branch then did the same with Hooker, kept trading down to collect assets making a calculation that Hooker would be there in the 3rd round and still landed a guy who most were projecting in the 2nd at worst. He then used those assets to take a longshot NT which I'm still baffled but he made all the maneuvering and landed his targeted players. Personally, I think he took a big leap of faith with some of these guys going against the consensus but he did what he had to do to land the guys he wanted which is a talent in itself.

[MichiganCardinal]

I’m still really perplexed by Broderick Martin. He’s earned the trust to make the move but it just seems so antithetical to everything he’s been about this whole time.

[djhutch]

4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I’m still really perplexed by Broderick Martin. He’s earned the trust to make the move but it just seems so antithetical to everything he’s been about this whole time.

I thought so too, at least as far as the draft is concerned.  Though he did bring in Snacks Harrison, & he may see Martin as the same kind of player. 

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, djhutch said:

I thought so too, at least as far as the draft is concerned.  Though he did bring in Snacks Harrison, & he may see Martin as the same kind of player. 

It was Quinn who brought in Snacks, but run defense was an issue through a lot of the season. It got better when they put Buggs at nose tackle. Martin is similar to Snacks and the entire defense guy better after they acquired Snacks. 

[MichiganCardinal]

19 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It was Quinn who brought in Snacks, but run defense was an issue through a lot of the season. It got better when they put Buggs at nose tackle. Martin is similar to Snacks and the entire defense guy better after they acquired Snacks. 

I think this is probably right. I think he really wanted to get a big fat run stuffing monster in the middle of the line, and they saw him as one of the few remaining options. He’s probably the kind of player that only goes in on obvious run plays to plug a hole and give Campbell and Anzalone the extra half second to make the highlight play.

I know the glass-half-full analysis that comes out after every draft pick to every team called him a poor man’s Jordan Davis. Color me doubtful given Davis scores a 10 RAS and Martin was closer to 0 than 10. But couple the questionable pick along with trading three late picks to do so is just head scratching. We got Rodrigo and Houston in the 6th round last year, what could three 5ths have turned into?

At the same time, Rodrigo and Houston are also probably evidence that I should sit down, shut up, and let Brad cook.

[djhutch]

32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It was Quinn who brought in Snacks, but run defense was an issue through a lot of the season. It got better when they put Buggs at nose tackle. Martin is similar to Snacks and the entire defense guy better after they acquired Snacks. 

I had blocked out that entire tenure in my mind.  This may set me back a while.  😉

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think this is probably right. I think he really wanted to get a big fat run stuffing monster in the middle of the line, and they saw him as one of the few remaining options. He’s probably the kind of player that only goes in on obvious run plays to plug a hole and give Campbell and Anzalone the extra half second to make the highlight play.

I know the glass-half-full analysis that comes out after every draft pick to every team called him a poor man’s Jordan Davis. Color me doubtful given Davis scores a 10 RAS and Martin was closer to 0 than 10. But couple the questionable pick along with trading three late picks to do so is just head scratching. We got Rodrigo and Houston in the 6th round last year, what could three 5ths have turned into?

At the same time, Rodrigo and Houston are also probably evidence that I should sit down, shut up, and let Brad cook.

Snacks had a RAS even worse than Martin. Martin is a space eating run stuffer. Those type of players aren't athletic and you can throw RAS out the window. They are there to be big, take on blockers, and free up your linebackers. He's more of a role player whose role was a need for most of the year last year. Maybe you don't draft him that high nor trade up for him, but I like the pick given the need for this team. That's a lot of beef now in the middle of the line between Martin and McNeil. It can free up Campbell, and Anzalone and Rodriguez to also chase down mobile QBs.

[Motown Bombers]

I think back to the Philadelphia and Seattle games. The Lions could not stop either team at the end of the game when they were trying to run out the clock. Imagine of they could have put someone like Martin in the game to prevent them from simply running up the middle and ending the game. 

[MichiganCardinal]

26 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think back to the Philadelphia and Seattle games. The Lions could not stop either team at the end of the game when they were trying to run out the clock. Imagine of they could have put someone like Martin in the game to prevent them from simply running up the middle and ending the game. 

If he can stop the Philly Push he’ll be worth every penny 

[Motor City Sonics]

My Post-Draft Power Rankings

 

1. Philadelphia (NFC 1)

2. Kansas City  (AFC 1)

3. Cincinnati  (AFC 3)

4. Buffalo  (AFC 4)

5. San Francisco (NFC 2)

6. Detroit  (NFC 3)

7. Jacksonville  (AFC 2).  Will have a better record than higher ranked power ranking teams because of a weak division

8. Miami  (AFC 5)

9. Seattle (NFC 5)

10. LA Chargers (AFC 6)

11. Dallas (NFC 6)

12. Baltimore  (AFC 7)

13. NY Jets

14. Pittsburgh

15. NY Giants (NFC 7)

16. Minnesota

17. Tennessee

18. Cleveland

19. Washington

20. Green Bay

21. Las Vegas

22. New Orleans (NFC 4)

23. New England

24. Chicago

25. Atlanta

26. Denver

27. Arizona

28. Carolina

29. Indianapolis

30. Houston

31. LA Rams

32. Tampa Bay

 

The way the rules are set up for playoff seedings, the NFC South winner, who could be 8-9 or 7-10 will host a playoff game.   They need to change the rule that if a team does not have a winning record, they can't host a playoff game

I would have round 1 as

NFC
(1) Philadelpha bye week
(7) NY Giants at (2) San Francisco
(6) Dallas at (3) Detroit.     Would love a replay of 1992
(5) Seattle at (4) New Orleans

AFC
(1) Kansas City bye week
(7) Baltimoire at (2) Jacksonville
(6) LA Chargers at (3) Cincinnati)
(5) Miami at (4) Buffalo

 

[Longgone]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I know I go to that well a little much, but in the last two weeks leading up to the draft, he accurately mocked Gibbs, Campbell, and LaPorta to the Lions. He’s definitely got a contact in the org.

He also mocked Josh Paschal to them last year, so maybe he's on to something.

[Longgone]

55 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Snacks had a RAS even worse than Martin. Martin is a space eating run stuffer. Those type of players aren't athletic and you can throw RAS out the window. They are there to be big, take on blockers, and free up your linebackers. He's more of a role player whose role was a need for most of the year last year. Maybe you don't draft him that high nor trade up for him, but I like the pick given the need for this team. That's a lot of beef now in the middle of the line between Martin and McNeil. It can free up Campbell, and Anzalone and Rodriguez to also chase down mobile QBs.

Exactly, run stuffers need length, strength, balance and quick feet, that isn't going to show up on ras. However, this pick and Sorsdal will be interesting to follow regarding Holmes drafting acumen.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

My Post-Draft Power Rankings

 

1. Philadelphia (NFC 1)

2. Kansas City  (AFC 1)

3. Cincinnati  (AFC 3)

4. Buffalo  (AFC 4)

5. San Francisco (NFC 2)

6. Detroit  (NFC 3)

7. Jacksonville  (AFC 2).  Will have a better record than higher ranked power ranking teams because of a weak division

8. Miami  (AFC 5)

9. Seattle (NFC 5)

10. LA Chargers (AFC 6)

11. Dallas (NFC 6)

12. Baltimore  (AFC 7)

13. NY Jets

14. Pittsburgh

15. NY Giants (NFC 7)

16. Minnesota

17. Tennessee

18. Cleveland

19. Washington

20. Green Bay

21. Las Vegas

22. New Orleans (NFC 4)

23. New England

24. Chicago

25. Atlanta

26. Denver

27. Arizona

28. Carolina

29. Indianapolis

30. Houston

31. LA Rams

32. Tampa Bay

 

The way the rules are set up for playoff seedings, the NFC South winner, who could be 8-9 or 7-10 will host a playoff game.   They need to change the rule that if a team does not have a winning record, they can't host a playoff game

I would have round 1 as

NFC
(1) Philadelpha bye week
(7) NY Giants at (2) San Francisco
(6) Dallas at (3) Detroit.     Would love a replay of 1992
(5) Seattle at (4) New Orleans

AFC
(1) Kansas City bye week
(7) Baltimoire at (2) Jacksonville
(6) LA Chargers at (3) Cincinnati)
(5) Miami at (4) Buffalo

 

hello kool aid my old friend,

i've come to smoke with you again...

[Motown Bombers]

The Lions are pretty clear favorites to win the division and that's not Lions fan speak. That's Vegas betting odds and almost all the national media. The Lions as the 3 seed seems pretty fair. Nothing Kool Aid about that. 

[MichiganCardinal]

Lions Kool Aid is available nationwide this year. Crazy as it sounds, I don’t think they’re that far away from an NFC Championship Game. Including even this year the possibility of the 49ers and/or Eagles dealing with injuries.

[Motor City Sonics]

24 minutes ago, buddha said:

hello kool aid my old friend,

i've come to smoke with you again...

Favorites for the NFC North (for good reason).   Nobody from the South is going do do anything and their automatic is goin to be the No. 4 seed.   They destroyed Jacksonville.  The Seattle & Miami games were very close and if Aubrey Pleasant stuck to the scheme they probably win both of those games.   The Chargers, Cowboys and Ravens are all about the same level as the Lions,  so why not be optimistic for a change?   Of course it all changes with a Goff injury. 

7. Jacksonville  (AFC 2).  Will have a better record than higher ranked power ranking teams because of a weak division

8. Miami  (AFC 5)

9. Seattle (NFC 5)

10. LA Chargers (AFC 6)

11. Dallas (NFC 6)

12. Baltimore  (AFC 7)

[Motown Bombers]

If not the Lions in the North, then who? Minnesota had a negative point differential. They basically treaded water this offseason and can still be losing Cook and Smith. They may be looking at a rebuild. Green Bay lost Rodgers and were 8-9 even with him. Chicago improved but they were the worst team in football last year. If you buy into football-reference expected win-loss, the Lions were an over 9 win team while Minnesota and Green Bay were expected 8 win teams. The Lions also had the 2nd youngest roster in the league last year, played one of the toughest schedules in the league last year, and enter this season as arguably the most improved team in the division along with the Bears. The expectation should be a division title.