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How to construct a Playoff/Champion worthy team, D Tigers V.2024+


1984Echoes

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I think this will be a complicated thread. Just as it is complicated to actually create a Playoff-worthy team. So... any suggestions on trades, signings, who wins versus loses with all these kids coming up... how many seasons does it take to win anything (70's Tigers had Jason Thompson & Mark Fidrych come up in 1976, Steve Kemp, Alan Trammell, Lance Parrish, Lou Whitaker, Jack Morris & Dave Rozema in 1977, Kirk Gibson & Dan Petry in 1979... plus other bench players/ contributors... and it STILL took until 1984 to gel into a Championship team. And not everyone made it. Multiple trades, injured and out/ off the team, new manager, etc...

So this may be a multi-year exercise in theorizing what needs to be added/ subtracted/ traded in order to build that level of a team.

How do the Tigers go from sub-.500 to being a very strong competitive team that makes the playoffs on an annual basis? There are a lot of issues revolving around the construction of said-competitive team... let me go through a few of them:

First off... we're a bit closer than current forum thinking... IMO:

1 hour ago, casimir said:

... Its still kind of tough to envision what the roster could look like next season.  I'm not sure Harris' hot stove is indicative of what we will see going forward.  Cabrera comes off of the books.  Rodriguez probably walks.  Gotta think Baez is sticking around.  Those are probably the big known items going into the offseason.  Obviously there are serious offensive needs to tend to.  So, there may be in house options to fill some roster slots, but those options probably aren't going to move this team in a significant way towards .500.

The thing is... we're ALREADY significantly towards .500, right now. We're not going to hit .500 this year (my goal), but on a team crap-loaded with problems, we're still within a stones' throw of that. On team with roster problems all over the lineup, the rotation, multiple field positions, etc... we're still not that far away.

So a couple related points:

1) The overriding goal this season was to fix all our broken players and to allow Harris time to evaluate the organization, top-to-bottom. We're only half-way there with broken players. Rogers and Skubal look repaired. Eduardo too but we might lose him this offseason. Riley and Tork! look like they can still take steps forward, so only partially. Manning looks broken, Mize still is and so is Turnbull. So this is still a priority IMO, for 2024... to still fix or improve broken players. And health. Health in 2024 would go a long ways towards this team gelling into a better, more competitive team. Starting with the rotation. A must fix for 2024, especially if Eduardo leaves and Manning still cannot figure out how to get the most out of his talent at the MLB level. Quick oddball question: Should Manning get pushed to the BP? How do we even do that unless we have 6-7 capable other (healthy) bodies in Detroit & Toledo? Who are those guys? I still would be OK with keeping Eduardo, but not for more than that +1 year + $20 mill they were asking for. If it comes at les than that... I would still be very, very OK as him being the Vet starter in the rotation for the next 3-4 years.

2) Here is the more complicated issue: I think we are going to see exactly what I had surmised earlier in that we have a lot of high level players coming up through the minors (or already in Detroit), similar to the 1970's. But, again, here's the complication:

What does that even mean?

Playoffs? Nothing? Something? Who stays? Who goes? Who flops? Who gets traded? Who plays first? Or is it I Don't Know on 3rd?

 

I'm going to leave this opening statement in thread as is at this point because... I think I've just opened up a can of worms:

 

 

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And I think this is the CURRENT Offseason 2023-24 question to ask as Ratko had pointed out in the 2023 regular season thread:

36 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

C - NEED TO ACQUIRE; Jake

1B - Tork

2B - NEED TO ACQUIRE; McKinstry or Maton

SS - Baez

3B - Keith; Ibanez or Short or Kreidler

LF/DH - Carpenter; Malloy or Baddoo

CF - Greene; NEED?

RF - Meadows; Vierling

If Harris can fill C, 2B, and maybe another OF, with a little growth and a little luck, no reason they cannot be .500ish, and in the ALC that's all you need. Hard to believe he again ignores improving ML lineup this winter.

 

PS: If Meadows is on the team... isn't he CF and Greene RF? Now Vierling gets sprinkled in (all 3 spots and some 3B) and only LF is the big open spot (along with DH) to sift through KC, Malloy & Baddoo as Ratko has pointed out.

But also, one of the keys to 2024: how does Harris get himself a healthy starting rotation in 2024, and who are our 7 to 8 starters between Detroit & Toledo?

 

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First off I'd like to bring back E-Rod and sign somebody like a Kenta Maeda to a shorter contract. Since we don't have any clear impact arms in the system that will be lined up for next year I think it's imperative that we sign atleast 2 FA pitchers that you can reasonably count on whether it be them two or two others. 

In this scenario we'd have Skubal, Rodriguez, Mize, Maeda and Olson/Manning(one in the rotation other in the BP) lined up in the rotation which if all goes well would be pretty formidable.  

In the BP I'd like to add atleast 1 proven guy via FA as there are quite a few of them available.  I think between that guy and Olson/Manning, Foley, Brieske, Lange and whatever potential guys we have down on the farm I think the bullpen would be good enough to win with, especially since it seems like Fetter and Hinch have been able to get the most out of the guys they have.

As for the big question mark, the everyday players and lineup it's hard to see them improving via FA so any improvements will probably have to either come within or if Harris can pull a DD and find an upgrade via trade.  

One FA that I would be interested in that should be within our budget is JD Martinez. I know we feel like somebody like Carpenter can take over the full time DH role with Cabrera gone but I'd like to get a proven slugger to pencil in there and JD is just that. If Carpenter continues to hit I think his defense is passable enough that he we could put him in the OF along with DH on JD off days. I'm thinking along the lines of if it's a 6 game week have JD play 5 of them with 1 day off and have Carp DH 1 day, play the field 4 games and 1 game off. 

My projected lineup would look something like this..

1. Greene OF (130 OPS+ 2023)

2. Vierling 3B (99 OPS+)

3. JD DH (128 OPS +)

4. Tork 1B (99 OPS+)

5. Carpenter OF (121 OPS+)

6. Rogers C (100 OPS+)

7. Keith 2B

8. Baez SS 

9. Meadows CF

I think that lineup has the potential to be good enough to win with particularly if Tork finally breaks out and Keith ends up being a plus bat from the start. If that were to happen you'd have 3 All Star level bats in Greene, Carp and JD, two plus ones in Keith and Tork, 2 average ones with Matty V and Rogers and only 1 black hole in Baez.  

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6 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS: If Meadows is on the team... isn't he CF and Greene RF?

Meadows in Center, Greene goes to left. At COPA, left is the field that needs more speed to cover. Riley has good OF speed but no arm so he is perfect for LF at COPA.  I assume that since Malloy at least got an audition as a 3b, his arm would play in RF. Vierling's clearly does. Carpenter's is fair. 

Greene, Meadows, Vierling, 7-8-9  might be as good as some of the TB or Royals OFs of recent years. All that IF Meadows keeps hitting.

Edited by gehringer_2
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2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

First off I'd like to bring back E-Rod and sign somebody like a Kenta Maeda to a shorter contract. Since we don't have any clear impact arms in the system that will be lined up for next year I think it's imperative that we sign atleast 2 FA pitchers that you can reasonably count on whether it be them two or two others. 

In this scenario we'd have Skubal, Rodriguez, Mize, Maeda and Olson/Manning(one in the rotation other in the BP) lined up in the rotation which if all goes well would be pretty formidable.  

In the BP I'd like to add atleast 1 proven guy via FA as there are quite a few of them available.  I think between that guy and Olson/Manning, Foley, Brieske, Lange and whatever potential guys we have down on the farm I think the bullpen would be good enough to win with, especially since it seems like Fetter and Hinch have been able to get the most out of the guys they have...

In addition... I think there will be a few guys in Toledo next year who may warrant a cup of coffee, or more, in 2024:

Madden & Mattison to start with. Mattison in the BP... and maybe Flores joins them, but is it in the BP? I think they keep Wilmer in the rotation until circumstances dictate otherwise... Do Hurter and Gipson-Long break with Toledo, or stay in AA in 2024? Faedo & Wentz play somewhere... although I don't know where... in 2024. If nothing else, maybe these guys will help with depth.

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Meadows in Center, Greene goes to left. At COPA, left is the field that needs more speed to cover. Riley has good OF speed but no arm so he is perfect for LF at COPA.  I assume that since Malloy at least got an audition as a 3b, his arm would play in RF. Vierling's clearly does. Carpenter's is fair. 

Greene, Meadows, Vierling, 7-8-9  might be as good as some of the TB or Royals OFs of recent years. All that IF Meadows keeps hitting.

I keep thinking Riley has the arm for RF but I think you're right... it should be Greene in LF and Meadows in CF, everyone else in RF or DH or subbing out a few games at LF & CF. Oh, and how much time does Vierling get at 3B next year? I think that depends on how Keith fares. And I think Keith spends most of his time at 3B, not 2B. Not 100% at the hot corner, but I think it ends up 95% of his time is at 3B...

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7 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

First off I'd like to bring back E-Rod and sign somebody like a Kenta Maeda to a shorter contract. Since we don't have any clear impact arms in the system that will be lined up for next year I think it's imperative that we sign atleast 2 FA pitchers that you can reasonably count on whether it be them two or two others. 

In this scenario we'd have Skubal, Rodriguez, Mize, Maeda and Olson/Manning(one in the rotation other in the BP) lined up in the rotation which if all goes well would be pretty formidable.  

In the BP I'd like to add atleast 1 proven guy via FA as there are quite a few of them available.  I think between that guy and Olson/Manning, Foley, Brieske, Lange and whatever potential guys we have down on the farm I think the bullpen would be good enough to win with, especially since it seems like Fetter and Hinch have been able to get the most out of the guys they have.

As for the big question mark, the everyday players and lineup it's hard to see them improving via FA so any improvements will probably have to either come within or if Harris can pull a DD and find an upgrade via trade.  

One FA that I would be interested in that should be within our budget is JD Martinez. I know we feel like somebody like Carpenter can take over the full time DH role with Cabrera gone but I'd like to get a proven slugger to pencil in there and JD is just that. If Carpenter continues to hit I think his defense is passable enough that he we could put him in the OF along with DH on JD off days. I'm thinking along the lines of if it's a 6 game week have JD play 5 of them with 1 day off and have Carp DH 1 day, play the field 4 games and 1 game off. 

My projected lineup would look something like this..

1. Greene OF (130 OPS+ 2023)

2. Vierling 3B (99 OPS+)

3. JD DH (128 OPS +)

4. Tork 1B (99 OPS+)

5. Carpenter OF (121 OPS+)

6. Rogers C (100 OPS+)

7. Keith 2B

8. Baez SS 

9. Meadows CF

I think that lineup has the potential to be good enough to win with particularly if Tork finally breaks out and Keith ends up being a plus bat from the start. If that were to happen you'd have 3 All Star level bats in Greene, Carp and JD, two plus ones in Keith and Tork, 2 average ones with Matty V and Rogers and only 1 black hole in Baez.  

I agree with pretty much all of this.  The only thing is I'd be a little wary of is JD Martinez.  He is one of my favorite hitters and I would probably be excited if they signed him, but he is going to be 36 and has had back and hamstring problems this year.  I could see him starting to get very injury prone.  I would like to see them get a proven slugger at some position though.  

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There are still so many question marks on this team. Even their obvious best player has an unsustainable .404 BABIP and can he stay healthy? These guys are so young and inconsistent. It's impossible to predict which side of .500 they end up on. There is a lot of potential but relying on 21, 22, 23 year olds is asking for trouble. Teams don't generally win by plugging three rookies into their lineup. 

Harris has a tough job this offseason and I want him to hire a GM to help. I think adding some short term veterans could help stabilize the roster. They had that in the rotation this year. A hitter or two could be helpful and a couple starting pitchers again. That could alleviate some of the pressure on these guys. 

They are probably a few years from serious contention but to get there, Harris, Hinch and the players will have to come up with answers to the many questions about the current roster.

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4 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Harris has a tough job this offseason and I want him to hire a GM to help.

I think that fact that that hasn't happened after a year means that he is the GM. Tigers probably offered the job as POBO so that the title upgrade would help remove any walkaway issues for a current GM they might offer. Many/Most employment contracts have easy out clauses for promotions. Tigers will talk about it once in a while to keep the fiction alive then more nothing will happen.

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I would like to see them get a proven slugger at some position though.  

With Riley and Carpenter, and Meadows and Keith in the wings, they're on track to get more LH dominant. Even if Torkelson improves, they need more RH power. Malloy might be some of that, but I would agree a FA pickup - esp RH - should be high on the list.

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On RH hitters...

The big FA get this offseason is Jung Hoo Lee, but he's also a LH'ed OF'er...

There are no magic pill FA's this year outside of Lee, that the Tigers have a chance at, IMO. Just a lot of warmed over leftovers. The best RH'ed FA's this year are: Jeimer Candelario (HAH!)?, Teoscar Hernandez?, Brian Anderson? and Matt Chapman?

Not much there at all. I'd go after Teoscar maybe. None of them "command the strike zone" though so I'm not certain what Harris will go after... maybe a trade more than a FA?

Internally... Bigbie is RH'ed, but I don't think we can count on him for anything. He may be able to make the Tigers and be Carpenter 2.0, but I think that is a "prove it" type of player/ play, not a "we can count on it" type. Wenceel is a switch-hitter and was high-OBP from the right side... until this year when his splits flipped and he's struggled as a rightie (but a .411 OBP from the left side) but he's a fringy player at best as a utility type (unless he can grab a 2B job?). Campos is RH'ed but he's a long way away at this point and is struggling so far... Dingler is also RH'ed... but looks like Rogers 2.0 - great defender, low BA, has some power... but can't get to that power consistently because of the low BA. So, just like Rogers, I guy you want at the bottom 3 in the lineup to extend the lineup, but not someone you want in the top 5 as a key run-producer.

From the right side, we have only Tork, who is still struggling with learning MLB pitching (I think he can get to another level but it's torture watching him trying to get there...) who I would want in the top 5, and maybe Vierling... but Vierling is an iffy guy in the top 5 as well. And Tork at his current level is just not good enough in the top 5 for a serious competitive team so, he has to get better. And the Tigers need better, from him and other solutions, on the right side.

Best avenue appears to be, again, the trade route, IMO.

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I probably would not count on more than one of Keith, Malloy or Meadows making the squad and contributing.  Would be great if 2, or all 3 could, but it’s unlikely.

We have plenty of depth at each position, but not the type to significantly improve a lineup that is in the bottom 5 in most offensive categories.

We will need to fortify a few positions through external acquisitions.

As others have noted, the opportunities are likely at C, OF and either 2B or 3B. Not sure if free agency will get it done, so we’re going to have to be willing to trade some prospects, which Harris will likely embrace as he didn’t draft most of them.

If ERod stays, I don’t think we need to acquire a SP as there should be plenty of depth to choose from.  The rotation could look like something like this:

ERod

Skubal

Mize

Turnbull

Manning

Depth:

Olsen

Faedo

Wentz

Madden

Long

Flores (?)

Finally, I’d like to see a veteran option for the bullpen, maybe two if they don’t bring back Cisnero.  Locks seem to be Vest, Holton, Lange, Brieske and Foley.  I could also see Faedo and Wentz in the mix, too. Mattison and White are waiting in the wings, too.

I don’t see this team in a rebuild.  There is a good foundation to work from, and with some smart acquisitions and a bit of luck, we could be competitive quickly.

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7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

On RH hitters...

The big FA get this offseason is Jung Hoo Lee, but he's also a LH'ed OF'er...

There are no magic pill FA's this year outside of Lee, that the Tigers have a chance at, IMO. Just a lot of warmed over leftovers. The best RH'ed FA's this year are: Jeimer Candelario (HAH!)?, Teoscar Hernandez?, Brian Anderson? and Matt Chapman?

Not much there at all. I'd go after Teoscar maybe. None of them "command the strike zone" though so I'm not certain what Harris will go after... maybe a trade more than a FA?

Internally... Bigbie is RH'ed, but I don't think we can count on him for anything. He may be able to make the Tigers and be Carpenter 2.0, but I think that is a "prove it" type of player/ play, not a "we can count on it" type. Wenceel is a switch-hitter and was high-OBP from the right side... until this year when his splits flipped and he's struggled as a rightie (but a .411 OBP from the left side) but he's a fringy player at best as a utility type (unless he can grab a 2B job?). Campos is RH'ed but he's a long way away at this point and is struggling so far... Dingler is also RH'ed... but looks like Rogers 2.0 - great defender, low BA, has some power... but can't get to that power consistently because of the low BA. So, just like Rogers, I guy you want at the bottom 3 in the lineup to extend the lineup, but not someone you want in the top 5 as a key run-producer.

From the right side, we have only Tork, who is still struggling with learning MLB pitching (I think he can get to another level but it's torture watching him trying to get there...) who I would want in the top 5, and maybe Vierling... but Vierling is an iffy guy in the top 5 as well. And Tork at his current level is just not good enough in the top 5 for a serious competitive team so, he has to get better. And the Tigers need better, from him and other solutions, on the right side.

Best avenue appears to be, again, the trade route, IMO.

I kind of wonder if they make a play at Chapman.  I don’t know that he fits perfectly.  As you mentioned, he doesn’t control the strike zone.  He also is a fly ball hitter and doesn’t have much speed.  I’m not sure if his defense has started to slide or not, but it probably still would be an upgrade over what we’ve seen this season.

Add into that the fact that the free agent pool seems shallow and he’ll be 31 early next season.

Although, who knows, maybe the fact that he’s not a household name and his age works against him in the market?

A ready right now everyday bat at 3B and a more developed bat from Torkelson would go a long way for this team.  Everyday players at the infield corners, Greene, Carpenter, and Baez (even if it’s much more on the defense with a nominal rebound to the bat) would be a nice start.  Then the mixing and matching of Vierling/Baddoo/MeadowsP in an OF slot and McKinstry/Maton/Short at 2B until Kieth is ready don’t stand out as much.

And who knows, maybe Vierling shows effective enough at 3B through the rest of this season that the 3B is already in house.  Ideally that would be grand.  Then the capital that would have been used there (free agent salary, trade options) can get used to upgrade elsewhere.  I think it’s worth it to evaluate that through the rest of the season.

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5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Guys that we should not count in any significant roles next year:

Haase

Ibanez

McKinstry

Baddoo

Short

Maton

Some of those guys can be bench players and/or in a platoon role.  But too much of the lineup this season has been populated by platoon and bench players.

Ibanez can go in the off-season.  Get 3B plugged and they’re in a better position next season.  Keep playing Vierling there.

Small sample size, but Carpenter is at .766 vs LHPs.  Keep playing him vs LHPs.

If the Tigers can hit on those two, the off-season becomes easier.

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8 minutes ago, casimir said:

I kind of wonder if they make a play at Chapman.  I don’t know that he fits perfectly.  As you mentioned, he doesn’t control the strike zone.  He also is a fly ball hitter and doesn’t have much speed.  I’m not sure if his defense has started to slide or not, but it probably still would be an upgrade over what we’ve seen this season.

Add into that the fact that the free agent pool seems shallow and he’ll be 31 early next season.

Although, who knows, maybe the fact that he’s not a household name and his age works against him in the market?

A ready right now everyday bat at 3B and a more developed bat from Torkelson would go a long way for this team.  Everyday players at the infield corners, Greene, Carpenter, and Baez (even if it’s much more on the defense with a nominal rebound to the bat) would be a nice start.  Then the mixing and matching of Vierling/Baddoo/MeadowsP in an OF slot and McKinstry/Maton/Short at 2B until Kieth is ready don’t stand out as much.

And who knows, maybe Vierling shows effective enough at 3B through the rest of this season that the 3B is already in house.  Ideally that would be grand.  Then the capital that would have been used there (free agent salary, trade options) can get used to upgrade elsewhere.  I think it’s worth it to evaluate that through the rest of the season.

Chapman would be great.  He gets on base, hits for power and is a strong defender.  The only concern is he may cost too many years for a team in the Tigers position.  You'd probably be getting a couple of bad years at the end of his contract which is a risk a team can take for winning now.  In the Tigers case, those two years might be when they are most likely to be winning.     

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Chapman is probably aiming for a Kris Bryant pay day, 7/182M. maybe he falls short of that, but 6/150 seems reachable for him. Chapman is really, really good, and will be coming off a 5+ WAR season. also insanely consistent. per FG, his offense, defense and baserunning have all been assets every year of his career. rare that a player does not have a down year. he would be a great add. but hard to see Tigers with the wining bid

image.thumb.png.edb00ffe214fd5cc6e72dc9a577ae780.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

your're just saying that because he hit his 1st AAA HR tonight....

😉

Nope... didn't mention the HR.

But,

Rather:

The .280 BA and the .365 OBP this year (in AA & AAA combined). He's mostly plus BA and OBP at every level. Oh, and he also plays 2B (naturally, not as a refugee from 3B or because the Org can't find a position for him...). I know he started as a SS but he's been better at 2B the past several years. And he has some speed and a little bit of power to boot (so, yes the HR... but only 14 last year in 356 AB's (plus 10 triples and 18 SB's...) and only 8 this year I think in 377 AB's... plus 4 trip's and 22 SB's).

I think you're just yanking my chain there but... 😉 you know...  

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14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Nope... didn't mention the HR.

But,

Rather:

The .280 BA and the .365 OBP this year (in AA & AAA combined). He's mostly plus BA and OBP at every level. Oh, and he also plays 2B (naturally, not as a refugee from 3B or because the Org can't find a position for him...). I know he started as a SS but he's been better at 2B the past several years. And he has some speed and a little bit of power to boot (so, yes the HR... but only 14 last year in 356 AB's (plus 10 triples and 18 SB's...) and only 8 this year I think in 377 AB's... plus 4 trip's and 22 SB's).

I think you're just yanking my chain there but... 😉 you know...  

not sure if Maton has any more options left, but they should flip those two for the balance of the season.  

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  • 3 weeks later...

Lot of kids coming up next year I think...

I expect Malloy, Keith, Eddys Leonard and Wenceel to make their MLB debuts. Parker already has. And there are other guys with shots to break into MLB next year as well (IMO): Jung may have an outside shot, Lipcius maybe, Dingler?

It'll be interesting to see what these guys turn into. At this point, nobody knows... but we'll find out soon.

It actually looks like more attention will need to be spent on the pitching staff than on offense... crazy, given how this year has gone. I expect all these kids, even though they are kids and just breaking into MLB... to give us a decent enough offense to contend.

If we lose Eduardo though... Who can we depend on to start next year and lead the staff? Skubal? Turnbull? Mize? Manning? Just too many question marks here.

It's why I would NOT be bothered at all to buy out Eduardo's opt-out option. He wanted + 1 more year at $20 mill at the trade deadline to do that? Hell yes, I say. Do it.

And then we could still use another Lorenzen-type vet for stability and innings IMO.

What say you?

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There have several mentions of signing Lorenzen this off-season including by me.  I just looked at his pitching log and he has been terrible since his no hitter.  He is getting pounded and strikeouts are way down.  He appears to have run out of gas.  This makes me think maybe they might sign him ...on a cheap deal.  

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3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

There have several mentions of signing Lorenzen this off-season including by me.  I just looked at his pitching log and he has been terrible since his no hitter.  He is getting pounded and strikeouts are way down.  He appears to have run out of gas.  This makes me think maybe they might sign him ...on a cheap deal.  

Part of the risk for anyone trading for him was the lack of innings pitched/season heading into this season.  The Tigers traded him at 105 2/3 IP.  He hasn't pitched over 100 at the MLB level since 2015.  Stamina for August/September was going to be questionable even if he does keep himself in good shape.

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