MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 vs. Setting: 01/08/2024 7:30pm EST on ESPN Site: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX Opening Spread: Michigan -4.5 All-Time Series Record: Michigan leads, 8-5 Last Meeting: 09/11/2021, Michigan won 31-10 #2 Washington Huskies (14-0) Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer (4th Season: 37-8) Projected Starting QB: Michael Penix Jr. (Senior: 37-7) Last Week: 37-31 W v. Texas in the Sugar Bowl #1 Michigan Wolverines (14-0) Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (16th Season: 143-52) Projected Starting QB: JJ McCarthy (Junior: 26-1) Last Week: 27-20 W in OT v. Alabama in the Rose Bowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 penix and the receivers were really impressive against texas. the rest of the team? not so much. i didnt understand texas' offense. just run the ball. it was like they tried to get really cute and impressive when all they really needed to do was smash them. and they got really unlucky with turnovers. if michigan plays sound, they should be ok. if they get tcu jj, they will lose. penix will be a load. and their receivers against michigan's non-will johnson corners will be a mismatch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley70 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Michigan spent the entire season playing with a 6 man box to prepare for the OSU passing attack. And they still came out as the number one defense in CFB. They should be ready for Washington. Wallace held up pretty good yesterday and the OSU game plus the safeties are experienced. Hopefully they can get after Penix like they did to Bama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 If Michigan can win in the trenches against Alabama, they should be able to dominate them against UW. Run the ball down their throats and do the little things right!!!! They should be fielding punts all week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 The Dillon Johnson injury for UW will be worth monitoring this week as well. He was in a lot of pain late in the game against Texas. Joined in the celebration but was carted off the field afterwards. Would be a huge loss for UW if he can't go. I'm guessing with the way significant college football injuries tend to work, we won't know for sure until he either is or isn't on the field for UW's first drive of the game. They don't have to activate and inactivate players like the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 penix and washington is a much different animal than Bama. washington can exploit michigan's "flaw" on defense much moreso than the tide could. penix is going to be a huge issue. i expect michigan to throw a lot of trick coverages at him like they did with osu and harrison. oduze is a burner. its a tough matchup. if michigan wins, they win up front. that said, i was impressed with how michigan's dline played and very unimpressed with how texas went away from trying to outphysical washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 JJ and the offensive line need to be better than they were yesterday. Our special teams can't make the kinds of mistakes they did yesterday either. If they are, we give ourselves a chance to win this. I think Michigan's defense is clearly good enough to stop this game from being a track meet type of game, where the first to 50 wins it, like the TCU game was last year. So it is incumbent upon the offense and special teams to be better and give us the chance to win it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: If Michigan can win in the trenches against Alabama, they should be able to dominate them against UW. Run the ball down their throats and do the little things right!!!! They should be learning when not to field punts all week. FIFY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: JJ and the offensive line need to be better than they were yesterday. Yup. Despite wanting to be a run first team, and partly because of the loss of Zinter, they still rise and fall exactly on how accurately JJ throws the ball. When he hits guys in stride, they are unstoppable - period. When he has receivers reaching back for everything the O struggles. Edited January 2 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The early line seems to be Michigan -4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djhutch Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Obviously need JJ to play better - I think our WRs should be able to get a little more separation against UW than they did against Bama, which should help - especially with guys like Loveland. I think TOP will play a big role. Unlike the past 2 years, I think this M is resilient when tough times hit - They can withstand some blows from Penix & that offense, but if they can consume lots of time on their drives & keep the ball out of his hands, that's nice too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 No southern school in the CFB Championship since the first one in 2014 (Ohio State vs. Oregon) and Ohio State is kind of a southern school. I expect the South to secede over this in the ultimate temper tantrum. And I would be fine with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 41 minutes ago, djhutch said: Obviously need JJ to play better - I think our WRs should be able to get a little more separation against UW than they did against Bama, which should help - especially with guys like Loveland. I think TOP will play a big role. Unlike the past 2 years, I think this M is resilient when tough times hit - They can withstand some blows from Penix & that offense, but if they can consume lots of time on their drives & keep the ball out of his hands, that's nice too. I think it will be a game decided by identity. UW reminds me some of the CJ Stroud-led OSU teams. Lots of talent and lots of athletes, but they can be worn down on their lines. Michigan will want to win it in the trenches and just wear down the defensive line for UW. Death by a thousand blows. Three yards, four yards, three yards, first down... Six yards, five yards, first down... Play action to Loveland, first down... If they start to cheat up and bring some extra guys into the box, start taking some shots (see: OSU 2022). Washington will want to make it more of a shootout. I'd expect them to receive if they win the toss, and they will aim to make Michigan play from behind and air it out in a race to 40+ points. Based on what we saw from Michigan and UW yesterday, the path is probably a little easier for Michigan. Michigan had to play from behind against Alabama and, as you said, they were nothing if not resilient. There was no panic at all. Unlike Texas, which inexplicably abandoned the run (despite gaining 6.4ypc), I think it will be very difficult for Washington to get Michigan to deviate from their game plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 He was in a lot of pain leaving the field. I have to imagine he won't be 100% even if he gives it a go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 This is a really good analysis of both teams and a great preview of the matchup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) Washington sure seems like this year’s TCU to me. Heisman Trophy runner-up QB with a top receiver puts up a lot of points offensively, but lived a charmed life all season as a mid defense led to a lot of one-score wins and close calls. I know what happened last year against TCU but Michigan has learned its lesson. I see something like Michigan 45 Washington 24. Edited January 5 by lordstanley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, lordstanley said: Washington sure seems like this year’s TCU to me. Heisman Trophy runner-up QB with a top receiver puts up a lot of points offensively, but lived a charmed life all season as a mid defense led to a lot of one-score wins and close calls. I know what happened last year against TCU but Michigan has learned its lesson. I see something like Michigan 45 Washington 24. This is what I am leaning towards too, but I do think this year's PAC 12 is better than last year's Big 12. The 2022-23 TCU squad (which had already lost to Kansas State) probably doesn't beat Oregon twice. I also think this year's Michigan team is worse than last year's Georgia team. Though you're not claiming that M will beat them 65-7, so that's neither here nor there really. I have a really hard time seeing Washington getting Michigan to engage in a shootout. UW scored 31+ in 11 of their 14 games this season, which made up for some really bad defensive showings (42 to USC, 33 to Stanford, and 32 to Cal all stand out). Michigan didn't allow more than 24 all season, while also never scored less than 24 on offense. Something's got to give, and I seriously doubt Michigan is about to surrender 51 like they did to TCU. Even if Penix is on, I think Michigan will control the bleeding and take back the tempo of the game. It's worth pointing out again that Michigan's mistakes against Alabama probably resulted in 11 points of swing throughout the game, and they still won. They are just such a good and complete football team. Meanwhile though, you can't rule out Washington. They've been underdogs in three of their last four games. They are comfortable in this position. I won't make a prediction yet, but overall I do like Michigan's chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said: This is what I am leaning towards too, but I do think this year's PAC 12 is better than last year's Big 12. The 2022-23 TCU squad (which had already lost to Kansas State) probably doesn't beat Oregon twice. I also think this year's Michigan team is worse than last year's Georgia team. Though you're not claiming that M will beat them 65-7, so that's neither here nor there really. I have a really hard time seeing Washington getting Michigan to engage in a shootout. UW scored 31+ in 11 of their 14 games this season, which made up for some really bad defensive showings (42 to USC, 33 to Stanford, and 32 to Cal all stand out). Michigan didn't allow more than 24 all season, while also never scored less than 24 on offense. Something's got to give, and I seriously doubt Michigan is about to surrender 51 like they did to TCU. Even if Penix is on, I think Michigan will control the bleeding and take back the tempo of the game. It's worth pointing out again that Michigan's mistakes against Alabama probably resulted in 11 points of swing throughout the game, and they still won. They are just such a good and complete football team. Meanwhile though, you can't rule out Washington. They've been underdogs in three of their last four games. They are comfortable in this position. I won't make a prediction yet, but overall I do like Michigan's chances. washington has had some offensive stinkers in there. watch the arizona state tape. if you can make them one dimensional, you've got a decent chance to control penix. play a lot of zone, or throw johnson on oduze. but to win they need to control the game on the ground and not turn the ball over. washington's dline is not bama, or even ohio state. grind it out, control the clock, use jj's legs for once. be creative but not reckless. and for god's sake, dont muff any more punts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I like Michigan chances atleast about as much as you could reasonably ask for in a championship game, that's no disrespect to Washington cause they are obviously a great team but I don't feel that they are on the same level as most teams you would expect to face in the finals like those great Clemson, Bama, OSU or Georgia teams of the previous decade. Of course Washington fans may be saying the same thing about Michigan though. Anyways I think it will be important for Michigan to run the ball well and have long time consuming drives. Give that high powered Washington offense as few of possessions as possible while also keeping our defense as fresh as possible. I'd use the same blueprint we used to beat those CJ Stroud OSU led teams in 21 and 22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I feel better than I did going into 2013 against Louisville or 2018 against Villanova, for what the cross-sport comparison is worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: I feel better than I did going into 2013 against Louisville or 2018 against Villanova, for what the cross-sport comparison is worth. For a deeper cut I'd add Vanderbilt in the College World Series Finals a few years back to that as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: For a deeper cut I'd add Vanderbilt in the College World Series Finals a few years back to that as well. Agreed. Even after Michigan won game one, I wasn’t super confident they could knock off the Alabama of college baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said: I feel better than I did going into 2013 against Louisville or 2018 against Villanova, for what the cross-sport comparison is worth. i felt pretty good against louisville. i knew that villanova game was a lost cause. that was a great villanova team. please dont sully this thread by mentioning michigan basketball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I've been seeing a ton of Penix hype lately in terms of his NFL future and how he should be the clear number 3 QB off the board and top 10 pick, I'm not denying that he hasn't been great this year but I hope those people are factoring in his age and experience when doing so cause to me that is a big deal. The dude is almost 24 years old, has been starting for 6 years and for reference was in the same High School class as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Honest, mature words by Donovan Edwards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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