Grading the Detroit Lions Draft - In 2021

[Jimbo]

This is exactly what I am saying.  I have never said that Hurts was a better QB than Goff.  It definitely appeared that way two years ago.  When I refereed to Philly, I was talking about winning to the SB in 2017 and still being relevant for multiple years with a different QB.  Time will tell but the Hurts contract could of hurt (no pun intended) for a while.  Philly stayed relevant until they got back to the SB last year by making smart picks even though they didn't have a high draft pick.  Hurts was a 2nd round pick.  Philly was relevant more because of the rest of the their roster and not because of the QB.  I think Purdy is good but I don't think he is a top 10 QB.  If SF decides to give him a huge contract they will be in a bad situation for a while.  I want to keep Goff but not for a crazy amount.  I think we would be better off franchising him and going with Hooker or someone else long term if Hooker isn't that guy.

Edited May 1 by Jimbo

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

No easy task. A team trying to build for consistent quality will always be at a disadvantage to teams willing to mortgage their futures for a short run. The CBAs and salary cap systems try to force any budding dynasties to be short. He's going to have to be a lot smarter than the average GM  - and maybe he is.

I think the NFL formula for sustainability at a very high level is a great GM who can identify NFL talent in later rounds. 

That's the pipeline to move a backup into a starter position without losing talent level and... not succumbing to Salary Cap Hell.

Also, depth players on a high level team are critical so, even if a later round guy never becomes a starter and is nothing more than a depth guy... that ALSO plays a role in the above...

This is the most encouraging thing I see in Holmes, and why he was hired: The ability to identify NFL talent in any round. Whether that's a depth guy, special teamer, or sneaky future starter... 

We'll see how good he is at this, or not, over the longer term 4-5-6+ years...

[Jason_R]

Goff struggled when protection broke down or players missed blocking assignments. But he knows where to go with the ball when the blitz is coming. 

[Motown Bombers]

There's always going to be people no matter what Goff does, that would rather have an old, injured, 3rd round rookie QB because he's not Goff. 

[Jimbo]

I am not anit-Goff.  I am anti over paying for him.  Saying he is a top 10 QB is not anti-Goff.  I just don't want us to overpay.  Luckily there is a lot of faith in Holmes.  So if he decides hes worth 4 years 200 mil, I am good with that.  If you see him wait and franchise him, I am good with that.

[MichiganCardinal]

3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think people understand how ugly the Hurts contract can get. The Eagles added 4 void years to his contract. They literally cannot release him for the next 6 years without taking an over $90 million cap hit. They could release him after 2027 and spread that hit over two years. Even if he plays his entire contract, they will still have a $97 million cap hit at the end unless they re-sign him. They basically gave him this contract with the expectation that would sign him to another extension. Risky proposition for a QB that had only one good year and relies on his legs. 

They have pictures of him in a casino inside a glass case labeled "break in case of emergency"

[MichiganCardinal]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

No easy task. A team trying to build for consistent quality will always be at a disadvantage to teams willing to mortgage their futures for a short run. The CBAs and salary cap systems try to force any budding dynasties to be short. He's going to have to be a lot smarter than the average GM  - and maybe he is.

As long as you keeping hitting drafts out of the park, you can be successful in the NFL. It's when you start whiffing on repeated drafts that you get in trouble, because you either have to pay $90MM to the guys you drafted well four years ago, or you have to let the position go unaddressed.

[holygoat]

9 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

There's always going to be people no matter what Goff does, that would rather have an old, injured, 3rd round rookie QB because he's not Goff. 

So long as that old, injured, 3rd round rookie QB can run.

[Sports_Freak]

11 hours ago, Jimbo said:

This is exactly what I am saying.  I have never said that Hurts was a better QB than Goff.  It definitely appeared that way two years ago.  When I refereed to Philly, I was talking about winning to the SB in 2017 and still being relevant for multiple years with a different QB.  Time will tell but the Hurts contract could of hurt (no pun intended) for a while.  Philly stayed relevant until they got back to the SB last year by making smart picks even though they didn't have a high draft pick.  Hurts was a 2nd round pick.  Philly was relevant more because of the rest of the their roster and not because of the QB.  I think Purdy is good but I don't think he is a top 10 QB.  If SF decides to give him a huge contract they will be in a bad situation for a while.  I want to keep Goff but not for a crazy amount.  I think we would be better off franchising him and going with Hooker or someone else long term if Hooker isn't that guy.

Well, Goff is under contract for 2024 so if we did franchise him, it would be for next year. So we could have him for 2 more seasons. But we'll extend him so that is all irrelevant. If Holmes and the coaches thought we could get the same production from someone for much less, they probably would. But with the fans chant Goff's name, it would be extremely unpopular. 

[buddha]

you got two first team all pros in the same draft.  that's more than the previous ten years of lions' drafts combined (special teamers dont count).  you got one really good starter at a premium position (mcneil), two players who developed in solid starters in year 3 (barnes and iffy) and one second round bust.

previous lions drafrs have resulted in one great player (barry  calvin, suh, herman moore, lem barney, charlie sanders) or two very good players (blades/spielman, brown/glover), but none of them had multiple first team all pros by third year guys.  not pro bowls, first team all pros.  that's an amazing class.

this is a hall of fame draft class and is probably the best lions draft class since 1958 (alex karras and wayne walker).

[buddha]

most first team all pros by lions draftees (only players who actually played for the lions, so no otto graham, johnny robinson, ya tittle...):

joe schmidt 8

barry 6

jack christensen 6

d*ck stanfel 5

suh 3

karras 3

calvin 3

herman moore 3

yale lary 3

[Motown Bombers]

Really surprising that after Suh left Detroit he was never an All-Pro and only a one time Pro Bowler. 

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, buddha said:

..

yale lary 3

As a tyke in Detroit it just seemed wrong to me that Yale Lary and Larry Sherry were different people.

👶

Edited May 2 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

13 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think people understand how ugly the Hurts contract can get. The Eagles added 4 void years to his contract. They literally cannot release him for the next 6 years without taking an over $90 million cap hit. They could release him after 2027 and spread that hit over two years. Even if he plays his entire contract, they will still have a $97 million cap hit at the end unless they re-sign him. They basically gave him this contract with the expectation that would sign him to another extension. Risky proposition for a QB that had only one good year and relies on his legs. 

Yup. Hurts is sort of in a class by himself as an athlete.  In all the years I've watched the NFL Hurts is the only QB I've ever seen run down and make a TD saving tackle on a CB from behind after he threw a pick. But just because he is a unique athlete doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be a uniquely valuable/consistent QB over time.

[RedRamage]

20 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Goff struggled when protection broke down or players missed blocking assignments. But he knows where to go with the ball when the blitz is coming. 

Putting on my Motown Bombers hat a moment: I don't think there are too many QBs who don't struggle when protection breaks down or players missing blocking assignments. The question isn't if he struggled, but how much did he struggle and was it appreciably more than other QBs.

Now, obviously a more mobile QB will struggle less (all other things being equal) as a mobile QB has one more tool to use in those situations vs. a less mobile QB. (Or perhaps it's better to say a more mobile QB has a better tool than a less mobile QB... splitting hairs here.)

But all other things aren't equal, ever. Would I take Gared Joff who's identical in all areas to Jared Goff except he can run like Justin Fields? Hell yes! But Gared Joff doesn't exist.

[Jimbo]

I think when Goff gets discussed on here or talk radio or even just amongst friends, it goes into great depth on what he does good and why he is a good or great QB.  For his skill set, he is a top 10 QB (just based on his actual skill set and not his stats). My whole thing is how much you pay a QB can really put a franchise back or on pause.  Now I do realize that if they sign him to a big contract, that contract in two to three years might not be that bad.  Regardless, Goff's contract is going to prevent us from keeping certain players.  How much is what I am hoping to avoid.  I have seen this happen to so many franchises.  Luckily I am not that worried about it because I have total faith in our organization to make the right call.  I also don't want the fan support to cause the franchise to over pay for him which luckily again I don't think this current regime would do.  That being said, the amount I feel like he should get is around 45mil a year (depending on the length).  If he gets 50 or more, I won't be upset, although I will feel like he was overpaid.  I also look at what I feel like other teams would pay for him if he was a free agent. Non of that matters if we win a Superbowl or are contenders for it for the next few years.

[Jason_R]

46 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

...I don't think there are too many QBs who don't struggle when protection breaks down or players missing blocking assignments....

Yes, that was the point. 

For the record, I hope Goff gets paid. He came to a bad, bad football team after a bad breakup with the team that drafted him. He looked bad at the start of his tenure but almost everyone around him was bad. He is every bit as much of this turnaround as St. Brown, Sewell, and Hutch. 

[RandyMarsh]

If the choice is either sign Goff to big money and be forced to have a terrible o line or not sign him and have a top 3 line Id prob take the latter. 

The thing is though that it isn't an either or situation, the NFL cap is only going to continue to rise and so long as we continue to draft well so we can offset the expensive positions with cheaper guys on rookie contracts there is no reason we can't keep Goff and continue to have a dominant line with multiple expensive linemen. 

 

Edited May 2 by RandyMarsh

[Motown Bombers]

17 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Yes, that was the point. 

For the record, I hope Goff gets paid. He came to a bad, bad football team after a bad breakup with the team that drafted him. He looked bad at the start of his tenure but almost everyone around him was bad. He is every bit as much of this turnaround as St. Brown, Sewell, and Hutch. 

Goff is the whole reason for the turnaround. The Lions were able to trade Stafford and not only get their future QB but multiple 1st round picks that they used on the roster instead of having to package them for a QB. 

[Motown Bombers]

Do people talking about the cap realize that Goff had the 3rd highest cap hit in the league last year? Only two players in the NFL took up more of the cap than Goff. He's not on some rookie deal. He's already getting paid. An extension would probably lower his cap hit in the short term. 

[4hzglory]

42 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

.  I also look at what I feel like other teams would pay for him if he was a free agent. Non of that matters if we win a Superbowl or are contenders for it for the next few years.

I think Cousin's deal shows that he would likely get at least around 4 yrs $200 mil on the open market.

I definitely don't want them to go crazy, but IMO he has earned around that and whenever he signs, his first 2 years will likely be at a similar or lower cap hit than he has had the last 2 seasons.  It would be the last couple years where the cap hit would increase, but by then the cap will be significantly higher as well. 

[RandyMarsh]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Do people talking about the cap realize that Goff had the 3rd highest cap hit in the league last year? Only two players in the NFL took up more of the cap than Goff. He's not on some rookie deal. He's already getting paid. An extension would probably lower his cap hit in the short term. 

Yep, this isn't a situation like the niners will be in shortly where Purdy goes from being the cheapest player in the league to potentially one of the most expensive. Any potential salary or cap increase should be pretty negligible with Goff.

 

[Motown Bombers]

I seem to recall Holmes said he wanted to be more like the Ravens. The Ravens are a team that drafts well and doesn't spend a lot in free agency. The Ravens signed Flacco to a huge contract and were able to remain competitive for pretty much the entirety of his contract. The Lions want to be a consistent winner like the Ravens. They aren't always a Super Bowl caliber team but their floor is usually 9-10 wins and a playoff berth. 

[Jimbo]

Obviously there are a lot of dumb GM's in the NFL although I am not sure if Goff is thought of as a top 5 QB.  To me, that was a dumb contract Atlanta gave Cousins (especially after their draft pick, injury history, and age).  I think Goff needs us as much as we need him.  Goff is average if he doesn't have a good line and weapons.  There was that stretch between the Chicago games that he looked really bad.  Or if you go to his start to being a Lion.  BTW that is most of the QB's in history.  How good is Purdy if he is on Carolina.  Although I feel like if you put Purdy on our team, he will be just as good as he is with SF.  Goff is going to get paid regardless, I just hope he realizes the cost (with other good players around him) to keep him a top 5 QB and is willing to take a little less.  I think that is why there isn't a deal yet.  His agent works for Goff and is trying to get the most but I think at some point Goff might tell his agent, OK I am good with a little less to stay on this team for the long term.  Or maybe they are waiting for another big QB contract to put more desperation with the Lions.  If the Lions give him that 4 years at 200mil or more, the Lions will be good and still compete for the Superbowl although if he is will to do 5 years at 210 or something similar, it could mean actually winning.  It goes from being a normal contract for a QB to being a deal, and that is what helps franchises go from great to the best.

[4hzglory]

Here would be a sample deal to show what MB is saying.

Goff currently has a cap hit of $32.3 mil for 2024 with 22.3 in salary, 5 mil roster bonus and 5 mil prorated signing bonus.

A proposed 4 year $200 mil extension with $90 mil signing bonus and $125 mil guaranteed new money could look like something like this.  

If they add a void year, the signing bonus would get spread over 6 years - current 2024, 4 year extension, plus the 1 void year.  So the signing bonus allocation would be $15 mil per year.

2024:  convert $15 mil of his $27.3 mil salary/roster bonus to new signing bonus.  Cap hit would be $12.3 mil salary, $5 mil from previous signing bonus + $15 mil new signing bonus allocation for total cap hit of $32.3 mil - identical to current.

2025: Fully guaranteed salary of $15 mil + $15 mil signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $30 mil

2026:  Fully guaranteed salary of $20 mil + $15 mil signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $35 mil

2027:  Salary of $35 mil ($15 mil fully guaranteed - gets to the $125mil guaranteed new money) + $15 mil signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $50 mil

2028:  Salary of $40 mil + signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $55 mil

2029 void year:  signing bonus allocation of $15 mil for cap hit of $15 mil

So proposed cap hits of $32.3 mil in 2024 (identical to current), $30 mil in 2025, $35 mil in 2026 - almost an identical average for those 3 years as his 2024 hit.

Obviously they would have roster bonus'/other ways of adjusting the hits if they wanted more cap space in certain years, but this would also allow them to get out of the deal after 2026 if they had to for a dead money hit of $60 million which is $10 million more than what his 2027 cap number would be if they kept him, or they could spread it over 2 years and free up $20 million in 2027, $25 mil in 2028, and $15 mil in 2029.  If they cut him after 2027, they would have a dead money hit of $30 mil which if they didn't spread it over 2 years, would save them $25 mil on the cap  in 2028 and $15 mil in 2029. - so no major pill like the Hurts deal.

 

This is just a lot to say/show that a 4 yr $200 mil extension can simply be structured to not cripple the cap.  The team would have many other roster bonuses/etc to further manipulate the cap numbers besides this.

Edited May 2 by 4hzglory