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#1 team in the B1G East (Michigan) vs. the #1 team in the B1G West (Wisciowa) in Indianapolis.


romad1

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1 hour ago, buddha said:

iowa has been outgained by purdue, wisconsin, northwestern (!), minnesota, and illinois.  they outgained penn state only because clifford got hurt.

Lazy narrative is lazy. He start off as gang buster but it was 14-10 when he got hurt and he had been held to something like 20 yards on the two drives before the injury.

(The rest of your post was spot on.)

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15 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Lazy narrative is lazy. He start off as gang buster but it was 14-10 when he got hurt and he had been held to something like 20 yards on the two drives before the injury.

(The rest of your post was spot on.)

its not a lazy narrative, its the truth about iowa's offense not being very good.  iowa's defense and special teams are good.

and i think ive been pretty complimentary to iowa.  i think they can beat michigan, for sure.  iowa is always a well coached team.

michigan has higher rated recruits, but michigan just showed last saturday that that doesnt always matter.  iowa scares me to death.

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I have no doubt Ferentz can come up with a gameplan to stop the run.   M has had the ability to run against every opponent this season thus far.  Corum being healthier and Edwards coming into his own as an outlet receiver is going to be a big help.  

M has not stopped the run lately.  That concerns me.  I don't know if Iowa can withstand our pass rush.  

 

edit:  looks like OSU only ran for 64 yards.   It seemed like we didn't stop them when they did run.  

Edited by romad1
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35 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I have no doubt Ferentz can come up with a gameplan to stop the run. 

any reasonably good team can stop the run if they sell out to do it, and in the past you could do that against M. And it worked esp when Patterson was QB because M could not complete even a 5 yd swing pass with more than 50% probability with Shea back there. McNamara is no John Elway but he has become an efficient short and middle distance passer and that is why the running game is so much better now against good teams than in past years when it was also Harbaugh's primary focus. The team PR narrative that the emphasis on the run game is new is nothing more than that. Harbaugh has always wanting to play smash mouth, but most years he hasn't had QB play good enough to keep good defenses even moderately honest. This year he does. Up until Cade, and other than Ruddock, QB play at M under Harbaugh has been a wasteland.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, romad1 said:

I have no doubt Ferentz can come up with a gameplan to stop the run.   M has had the ability to run against every opponent this season thus far.  Corum being healthier and Edwards coming into his own as an outlet receiver is going to be a big help.  

M has not stopped the run lately.  That concerns me.  I don't know if Iowa can withstand our pass rush.  

 

edit:  looks like OSU only ran for 64 yards.   It seemed like we didn't stop them when they did run.  

i think they schemed to take away osu's run game and it worked.

iowa has the best offensive lineman in the country on their team at center, but their tackles are bad.  they may be able to run on michigan.  and i was assume they could scheme a better gameplan than ohio state or penn state did to avoid michigan's rush.  msu made um's defense look bad.  iowa doesnt have kenneth walker, but they are a better coaching staff than ohio state and penn state and can presumably figure out how to get michigan's young linebackers in bad positions.

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iowa's offense has been terrible all year and ferentz is notoriously conservative and unimaginative.  here i am talking myself into them being able to move the ball on michigan at will.

this is what its like to be a michigan fan in 2021: perpetual dread and waiting for the other shoe to drop and us to lose some game we shouldnt.

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25 minutes ago, buddha said:

iowa's offense has been terrible all year and ferentz is notoriously conservative and unimaginative.  here i am talking myself into them being able to move the ball on michigan at will.

this is what its like to be a michigan fan in 2021: perpetual dread and waiting for the other shoe to drop and us to lose some game we shouldnt.

take it easy on yourself. They are a bunch of 20 yr olds. Almost every college team can lay the occasional egg. It's what gives the college game its odd appeal. The team quality imbalances in college football are huge compared to the NFL (well, except for the Lions...) but you also have the weird level of background uncertainty where the much better team struggles for who knows why.

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26 minutes ago, romad1 said:

OSU had two NFL quality OTs?  and Hutch and Ojabo both had that day?   Good to play at home I guess. 

almost all of osu's offensive line will be drafted.  most of them fairly high.

of course, hutchinson is a top 5 pick and ojabo is a top 15 pick.

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9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Hutchinson will be rewarded for his fine play with a spot on the Lions roster. I look forward to him retiring before age 30 and fighting with the team over his signing bonus. 

They need one of the OSU receivers but it would be criminal to pick one that early.   So, maybe they need the most dynamic QB

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4 hours ago, buddha said:

its not a lazy narrative, its the truth about iowa's offense not being very good.  iowa's defense and special teams are good.

and i think ive been pretty complimentary to iowa.  i think they can beat michigan, for sure.  iowa is always a well coached team.

michigan has higher rated recruits, but michigan just showed last saturday that that doesnt always matter.  iowa scares me to death.

The lazy narrative is was referring to was only the penn state/clifford thing. That's why i truncated your post to only that and said I agreed with the rest.

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50 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I of course don't want them to back in but if Cincy, OSU and Bama all lose earlier UM might be in the playoffs even with a close loss. 

I get why people make that case, and it would make more sense if michigan right now had zero loses. But, they have 1 and then if they lose again that's 2. Why should Michigan get in over Iowa who would also have 2 loses, the conference championship, and a win over michigan. Does an OSU win trump all that?

 

(or similar for baylor which would have a similar resume to iowa. But the whole scenerio is like 1 percent chance of happening)

Edited by KL2
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10 minutes ago, KL2 said:

I get why people make that case, and it would make more sense if michigan right now had zero loses. But, they have 1 and then if they lose again that's 2. Why should Michigan get in over Iowa who would also have 2 loses, the conference championship, and a win over michigan. Does an OSU win trump all that?

I think it would depend on how the game went. If you go by all the metrics Michigan is WAY ahead of Iowa at the moment.  Currently UM is 4th in College Football's equivalent to the BPI at number 4 while Iowa is at 23. Michigan is 2nd in Strength of Record while Iowa is 10th. Michigan is 2nd in Average WPA ranked which they use to determine how much you controlled the game throughout, Iowa is 41st. Basically every one you look at you get results like this. 

I bring this up cause according to a couple of people they interviewed on the committee they said that the metrics are very important to them.

That's the reason UM was still ahead of MSU after they lost, the committee said that by all accounts Michigan was the better team and had the better season according to the metrics despite the loss.  Not saying I wouldn't personally put Iowa before Michigan but just reading between the lines of some of the committee's comments and I don't think they would consider them over Michigan even with a win. Now if they steamrolled them that may be another story. 

Edited by RandyMarsh
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This as nervous as I've felt for a Michigan game in a while. I expected Harbaugh and company to lose to Michigan State and Ohio State and only in the 4th quarter did I begin to feel the nerves against Ohio State. I expect Michigan to win this game now and so the negative energy is creeping back up. I don't see a matchup on paper where Iowa bests Michigan. Offensively, they don't seem to be very productive unless they are working with a shortened field. They have a terrible offense and rank 106th in rushing, 110th in passing, and 123rd in total offense. I don't see a way they outscore Michigan without forcing us to turn the ball over a ridiculous amount of times. Defensively, they are  good team but not better than Michigan and I don't think they have the talent on the Dline to control or bully Michigan's Oline considering what we just watched Michigan do last week to Ohio State's Dline.

My gut tells me Michigan pounds the rock down their throat, dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and just controls the game from start to finish. Iowa doesn't have the offensive talent to go up tempo and turn this game into a track meet. I think it's going to be something like Michigan 35 Iowa 17.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad
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I think Iowa is better than people are giving them credit for, I see Michigan controlling things most of the game yards wise and perception wise only to look at the score and see its like 17-10 or something like that early in the 4th. Like one of those games where you "feel" they are up by 2 or 3 TDs when in reality it's still a close game.  With that said I think they are the better team and will tack on a score late, 24-13 Michigan. 

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27 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This as nervous as I've felt for a Michigan game in a while. I expected Harbaugh and company to lose to Michigan State and Ohio State and only in the 4th quarter did I begin to feel the nerves against Ohio State. I expect Michigan to win this game now and so the negative energy is creeping back up. I don't see a matchup on paper where Iowa bests Michigan. Offensively, they don't seem to be very productive unless they are working with a shortened field. They have a terrible offense and rank 106th in rushing, 110th in passing, and 123rd in total offense. I don't see a way they outscore Michigan without forcing us to turn the ball over a ridiculous amount of times. Defensively, they are  good team but not better than Michigan and I don't think they have the talent on the Dline to control or bully Michigan's Oline considering what we just watched Michigan do last week to Ohio State's Dline.

My gut tells me Michigan pounds the rock down their throat, dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and just controls the game from start to finish. Iowa doesn't have the offensive talent to go up tempo and turn this game into a track meet. I think it's going to be something like Michigan 35 Iowa 17.

Iowa needed 4 INTs to beat PSU and lost to Wisc and Purdue. Cade is the most careful QB in the conference. On paper there is no game here. Of course 20 yr olds can come up flat for mysterious reasons, but aside from that always there underlying risk of them not showing up, there isn't any kind of football based analysis you can do to persuade yourself MI is likely to lose this game.

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29 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This as nervous as I've felt for a Michigan game in a while. I expected Harbaugh and company to lose to Michigan State and Ohio State and only in the 4th quarter did I begin to feel the nerves against Ohio State. I expect Michigan to win this game now and so the negative energy is creeping back up. I don't see a matchup on paper where Iowa bests Michigan. Offensively, they don't seem to be very productive unless they are working with a shortened field. They have a terrible offense and rank 106th in rushing, 110th in passing, and 123rd in total offense. I don't see a way they outscore Michigan without forcing us to turn the ball over a ridiculous amount of times. Defensively, they are  good team but not better than Michigan and I don't think they have the talent on the Dline to control or bully Michigan's Oline considering what we just watched Michigan do last week to Ohio State's Dline.

My gut tells me Michigan pounds the rock down their throat, dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and just controls the game from start to finish. Iowa doesn't have the offensive talent to go up tempo and turn this game into a track meet. I think it's going to be something like Michigan 35 Iowa 17.

Nobody who lived through the last decade will or should take anything for granted.  

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